Soviet Survival: An Alternative 21st Century
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paxamericana
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« on: July 03, 2022, 02:04:57 PM »
« edited: July 04, 2022, 05:13:21 PM by paxamericana »

Soviet Survival
An Alternative 21st Century
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LeonelBrizola
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« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2022, 02:05:28 PM »

Domestic policy changes little tbh.
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paxamericana
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2022, 05:17:13 PM »

Hello, talk elections friends! I am very excited to be writing this election/alt-history scenario! I have been having this idea brewing in my mind for quite some time and I am eager to get it down onto the internet. This scenario will begin in 2000 and span until about 2020 or 2022. It will mainly focus on how a USSR that survived into the 21st century affects American policies and (of course) elections. I will be releasing a prologue post in about a week or so explaining how the USSR survived in this timeline and how that affected politics in the 90s.
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2022, 12:39:26 AM »

Hello, talk elections friends! I am very excited to be writing this election/alt-history scenario! I have been having this idea brewing in my mind for quite some time and I am eager to get it down onto the internet. This scenario will begin in 2000 and span until about 2020 or 2022. It will mainly focus on how a USSR that survived into the 21st century affects American policies and (of course) elections. I will be releasing a prologue post in about a week or so explaining how the USSR survived in this timeline and how that affected politics in the 90s.

Will this just result in Republicans winning more?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2022, 02:46:56 PM »

Looking forward to the timeline! I would guess that the POD would either be Gregory Romanov coming into power instead of Mikhail Gorbachev or maybe Joseph Stalin dying in 1945 and being replaced by Lavrentiy Beria, who likely wouldn’t have increased tensions with the US and instead focus on building the Soviet economy (which may have resulted in less inefficiencies in the long run).
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paxamericana
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2022, 10:37:13 AM »

Hello, talk elections friends! I am very excited to be writing this election/alt-history scenario! I have been having this idea brewing in my mind for quite some time and I am eager to get it down onto the internet. This scenario will begin in 2000 and span until about 2020 or 2022. It will mainly focus on how a USSR that survived into the 21st century affects American policies and (of course) elections. I will be releasing a prologue post in about a week or so explaining how the USSR survived in this timeline and how that affected politics in the 90s.

Will this just result in Republicans winning more?

I'll make it more interesting than that Smiley
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paxamericana
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2022, 03:21:24 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2022, 09:33:57 PM by paxamericana »

Background

After the death of Leonid Brezhnev in 1982, Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko assumed the position of General Secretary. Gromyko became closely involved with decision-making for Brezhnev since he suffered a stroke in 1975.


Having served for decades as the Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union, he sought to bolster the Soviet Union's global position. He also took a hard-line stance against Poland's Solidarity movement, which Brezhnev had previously tolerated. Preparations began to send an intervention force to assist the Polish government's ongoing crackdown on the movement.


The Solidarity Movement received support from the West, which changed Gromyko's attitude towards more reform-minded members within the party. He became paranoid that Western forces were attempting to influence the Soviet Union from within through connections with these reform-minded figures. Prominent party positions were only given to those who expressed more hard-line positions. These actions were successful at suppressing public dissent in the midst of a stagnating economy. These new tensions within the Soviet ranks further intensified the so-called "Second" Cold War launched by U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

1984 Presidential Election


Gary Hart triumphed over former Vice President Walter Mondale in a bitter and narrow primary battle. Hart called for the Democratic Party to move past the 'failed policies of the past and to embrace new ideas. During the general election campaign, he championed the growing denuclearization movement and called for a nuclear freeze. His sexual history was the subject of much speculation during the campaign, but the campaign was able to avoid major scandals.

Reagan's policies were still popular and no matter what Hart did, the incumbent President was untouchable. Hart's liberal policies were able to gain him electoral votes in the north, but the rest of the nation sought to continue Reagan's conservative policies. The landslide victory made the American consensus clear: four more years of Reaganomics and an aggressive military buildup.



Iran-Contra Affair

"The Iran-Contra Scandal permanently tainted the view of the Reagan Administration in the eyes of the American people. The revelations were shocking to the public and a televised congressional hearing which began in 1987 guaranteed the full extent of the operation would be further brought to light. The administration attempted to shift the blame towards those who were directly involved. A coordinated campaign by Democrats, seeing the 1988 election draws nearer, ensured that the scandal would continue to be in the public eye.

While no definitive evidence was ever brought to light by either Congress or Federal Investigators regarding Reagan's direct involvement, the public blamed the President. Reagan's approvals fell to the low 30s by the end of 1987. Not only was his image harmed by the scandal, but Reagan's also renewed Cold War seemed to bear little fruit and he seemed to be scaling back his aggressive rhetoric and policies. Direct meetings with Gromyko at in Singapore to negotiate an arms reduction also failed and further contributed to a public perception of Reagan's softening stance. Hardcore conservative hawks were frustrated by Reagan's seeming retreat in the Cold War and some (including televangelist Pat Robertson) went as far as to publicly critique his newfound embrace of detente and arms reduction. Those within the Nuclear Freeze movement, on the other hand, were frustrated that the talks went nowhere and felt Reagan was not willing to go far enough to achieve nuclear disarmament.

The failed Singapore summit, the Iran-Contra Scandal, and Reagan's falling popularity would ultimately convince Vice President George Bush to opt-out of a Presidential run. The Republican Party would continue to embrace Reagan, but its conservative base felt betrayed by someone once viewed as the standard-bearer of their movement. This would set up a wide-open field in 1988.

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theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2022, 05:51:37 PM »

I assume McConnell loses?
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2022, 05:57:27 AM »

But good work.
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paxamericana
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2022, 11:10:10 AM »

1988 Presidential Election

The GOP was divided on which direction to take their party after Bush declined the nomination.  Some party insiders and Old Guard members sought to moderate the conservative ideology Reagan had solidified, fearing Reagan's unpopularity would jeopardize their electoral chances. Senator Bob Dole became the favorite primary candidate of this moderate faction. Others wanted to continue Reagan's conservatism. The Religious Right gravitated towards Pat Robertson, a televangelist who centered his campaign almost exclusively on social issues. In the end, Representative Jack Kemp was able to capture the nomination. Kemp's economic policies were a point of contention throughout, but he was able to unify primary voters in the end.

The Democrats were eager to take advantage of Reagan's unpopularity and hoped it would translate to electoral success. Senator Ted Kennedy, a vocal critic of Reagan throughout his eight years in office, quickly became the frontrunner. Kennedy had eyed the presidency since the start of his career and formulated a powerful primary campaign using his party connections and senate experience.

Voters were conflicted in the general election. Polls showed a narrow race between the candidates, despite Reagan's unpopularity. Kemp's economic agenda, a faltering economy, and the Iran-Contra Scandal were significant issues throughout the campaign. Kemp promised an expansion of Reagan's supply-side economics, a freeze on government spending, and a renewed aggression in the Cold War. Kennedy's campaign focused on progressive reforms such as a promise to pursue a nuclear freeze and an economic stimulus package. His powerful rhetoric and performances in the debates gained him considerable momentum. Ultimately, Kennedy would defeat Kemp in the general election.


The Death of Gromyko

Gromyko died on July 02, 1989, after a vascular complication. Under his leadership, the Soviet Union stabilized economically through a series of market reforms that introduced elements of free trade and a market-based economy. Soviet foreign policy focus was also shifted away from Afghanistan and under Gromyko's leadership, the Soviets pulled out of the country in 1985. Military spending stabilized, which further improved economic affairs within the nation. Soviet hardliner Gennady Yanayev came to replace Gromyko.


Yanayev's Foreign Policy

As the '80s progressed, anti-communist sentiment was growing in Eastern Europe. Yanayev saw these movements as a threat to the stability of the Soviet Sphere. His policy was more extreme than Gromyko's: the slightest compromise or democratization was not tolerated. One such concession was attempted in April of 1989 when the Hungarian government began talks of removing its border fence with Austria to make the passage of goods between the two nations easier. Once word of the plan reached Soviet leadership, a coup was orchestrated and an anti-reform government was placed in power.

The Soviets became heavily involved in the internal affairs of their European satellite states and rigidly implemented the Brezhnev Doctrine (which stated that any threat to communism in any Soviet satellite state was a threat to the entire Soviet Sphere.) This severely weakened the wave of anti-communist protests which rocked the nations throughout 1989. Leaders of the opposition movements were either arrested or killed. The aggressive implementation of this doctrine was soon made evident to the west.


Yanayev's Soviet Union was by no means thriving, but a rigid adherence to social order kept the reformists within the country who were inspired by the slowly liberalized Soviet Economy at bay. Although rocked by social discontent, the Soviet Union and its satellites survived into the 1990s.

Kennedy Administration

"We have never been willing to stand on the sidelines of history, whether the issue was war or peace or equality or justice. We have been at the center of the struggle. These struggles have made us and now this country is ready to move again and we are ready to lead. We have a job to do together and if all of us are together, we shall not fail" President Ted Kennedy during his inaugural address (01/20/1989)

Democrats were eager to reverse Reagan's conservative policies after eight years away from the White House. Kennedy's presidency would be focused on domestic issues, which he believed propelled him to the White House. As many economic experts warned of an impending recession, the economy became the main priority of the first weeks of the administration. The Economic and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1989 was President Kennedy's response, which injected significant stimulus into the economy along with increasing the Capital Gains Tax rate and rolling back many of the tax breaks for the rich. The bill passed congress, thanks in part to Kennedy's personal connections with congress which swayed key conservative Democrats to his side.

Healthcare, which Kennedy considered his life's work, became a primary agenda item. During the campaign, Kennedy promised to implement a universal single-payer healthcare system. After his stiumuls package was signed, President Kennedy shifted his focus towards getting healthcare through congress. He faced opposition from not only the GOP, but conservative Democrats mostly in the house (who Kennedy coined "Reagan Democrats").  Despite his best efforts and national political battles, he was unable to pass the legislation before the midterms.
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2022, 03:38:49 PM »

Excellent.
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paxamericana
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2022, 02:26:41 PM »

East German Democratic Protests

Despite increased Soviet intervention in the affairs of Eastern Europe, East Germany continued its rapid decline in economic and political stability. While the USSR and their other satellite states implemented a realist policy of implementing economic reforms, the East German government refused to implement what they saw as a softening of Marxist economics. The GDR was by far the worst off in terms of economics and stability in the Eastern Bloc.

The May 7th, 1989 Elections were heavily boycotted as a result of the continued economic hardships and political discontent, with many citizens leaving their ballots blank. Despite the widespread protests effort, state-owned media reported that the Socialist Unity Party of Germany received 98.5% of the vote. Evidence of clear fraud was given to the West Germany media, which was then smuggled into the GDR. This sparked a wave of protests around the country demanding free elections.

There were also several GDR citizens in East Berlin who attempted to flee into West Berlin. Marial Law was soon declared in East Berlin and the National People's Army was ordered to shoot anyone who even approached the border. General Jörg Schönbohm was disgusted by this order and defected. Several soldiers and officers stationed at checkpoints along the border joined him and formed The People's Militia. Schönbohm's militia offered free passage to West Berlin. Gaining support from the illegal New Forum Party and West Germany, Schönbohm declared that he would occupy the military checkpoints until General Secretary Erich Honecker resigned and was replaced by New Forum leader Jens Reich.

This action would initiate a crisis within the GDR as Honecker was unable to convince any commanding officers of the National People's Army to attack their own men. The Soviets were extremely unhappy with the military standoff and threatened to send in the Red Army to retake the checkpoints. The United States, however, responded by saying that any Soviet intervention in East Berlin would be considered an attack on West Berlin. The tense standoff continued as protests grew and martial law spread throughout the GDR.


1990 Midterm Elections

Republican backlash to Kennedy's healthcare efforts led to heavy midterm losses. The general public also grew increasingly concerned with the developing situation in East Germany. The national consensus was Kennedy could do more to support democratic protesters in East Germany.




Major Accomplishments of Ted Kennedy's First Term

  • Passage of The Economic and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1989
  • Expansion of the Department of Education with the creation of National Education Standards and National Teacher Corps
  • Passage of The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990
  • Medicare and Medicaid Expansion
  • Reduction of the National Debt by 35 Million Dollars
  • Appointment of Robert Smith Vance and Amalya Lyle Kearse to the Supreme Court

Faliure of Kennedy's Healthcare Package

"The United States of America is the only nation in the western world without a comprehensive healthcare program. From the moment I have been elected, I vowed to change that and I ask Congress to join me in this effort to ensure all Americans, not just those who can afford to pay, have access to quality and life saving care," President Kennedy during his State of the Union address (02/04/91)

"America cannot afford to implement President Kennedy's bloated, socialist healthcare plan which will completely destroy the healthcare industry of this country," Senator Christine Todd Whitman (R-NJ) during her response to the State of the Union (02/04/91)

Despite midterm losses and opposition from Republicans and Conservative Democrats, Kennedy pressed on with his single-payer healthcare plan. The ambious plan would be modeled after Medicare, with implementation left to each individual state. The full cost of most medical procedures would be paid in full by the government and a serious of additional reforms were proposed for hospitals and medical providers in an effort to ensure all had access to quality care. All of this would be paid with new taxes.

The GOP launched a national effort to oppose the plan, teaming up with major figures in the healthcare industry. Opponents targeted Kennedy's new taxes, calling them unreasonably high. The new federal standards for the healthcare industry were also attacked as being a catalyst for an inefficient and burocratic system. The Religious Right took particular aim at the plan's funding for the abortion industry and promise to distribute free contraceptives in most major hospitals.

The United States National Health Care Act of 1991 would be voted down in Congress, with a substantial number of Conservative Democrats voting against the measure.

"Congress has refused to fix our broken healthcare system. They have refused to ensure all Americans have access to quality care. They have refused to act," President Kennedy after the failure of the United States National Health Care Act (07/23/91)


1992 Republican Primaries

Kennedy's status as a liberal icon was red meat for its growing conservative base. When the 92 primaries rolled around, ideologies were once again at the forefront of the conversation. Two unlikely figures emerged into the spotlight: Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot. Buchanan positioned himself as the true conservative of the race, criticizing the Republican Party's embrace of economic globalization. Perot focused on government spending, the growing national debt and massive deindustralization. Perot and Buchanan shared similar views on economics, but differed socially. Buchanan was quick to embrace the Religious Right, making clear his firm opposition of abortion, gay marriage and other socially liberal views. Perot spoke little on these issues and usually avoided questions regarding social issues. Buchanan honed in on Perot's lack of clarity regarding his social positions.

"We have no idea what Ross Perot's views are on the most pressing social issues of our time. It is very possible that Perot has the exact same views as most of Washington's elite and even Kennedy himself," Pat Buchanan during a Republican Primary Debate (01/23/92)

In the end, Perot's unclear social positions did not matter to most Republican voters as his direct approach and common sense economic policies attracted many voters. Buchanan's views were also viewed as too radical, even among some of GOP"s most loyal supporters. Perot emerged as the presumptive nominee, but Buchanan would refuse to withdraw until the convention. Once he lost the nomination, Buchanan would reluctantly lend his support to Perot and shot down rumors of an independent campaign.

1992 Presidential Election

Kennedy found a tough reelection ahead of him in the early months of the campaign as the economy was sluggish and the East German Crisis saw no end in sight. Perot hammered Kennedy on both issues, and found a loyal following with no just the conservative base but a collition of moderate voters who were attracted to his economic policy.

In the end, Kennedy edged out Perot in terms of rhetoric. The three televised Presidential Debates, where Kennedy gave passionate appeals to the American people to grant him a second term, were considered critical deciding factors. Perot's criticisms against the national debt and economy also began to lose their impact as Kennedy's had both a similar resolve to solve the debt and had the economy was beginning to show faster signs of growth.



Berlin Wall Skrimish

After almost a full year of inaction, the Soviets were becoming increasingly unsatisfied with the East German Government. Unable to act directly due to Americanian backing of the People's Militia, Yanayev devised a plan to force their surrender. The Soviets marched an armored division in East Berlin to the wall, weeks after the American Presidential Election, and gave Schönbohm 24 hours to surrender himself and Jens Reich before they would retake the checkpoints by force. An extremely tense situtation ensued, as unkown to the public, American military adivsors were assisting Schönbohm in the occupied checkpoints. It became the most tense episode of the Cold War since the Reagan Administration. 15 hours later, Schönbohm caved to the Soviet demands and surrendered himself and Reich. All militia men stationed at the checkpoints, along with dozens of American military advisors, were captured by the Soviets.

This was an enourmous foriegn policy faliure for the Kennedy Administraiton, who promised to find a peaceful and democratic solution to the Berlin Crisis. Interally, the Adminsitration panicked and wished to retrive the capture military adivsors without the public discovering.
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2022, 06:44:19 PM »

Excellent work!
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2022, 08:08:35 PM »

Ted Kennedy fails to win a state in the South or the Southwest
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2022, 12:40:59 AM »

Excellent TL!
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paxamericana
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2022, 01:00:14 PM »

    Berlin Hostage Revelations

    Kennedy's Defense Department scrambled to quickly and covertly retrieve the Americans who were now being held by the Soviets. The captures were kept secret, even from the families of the 23 Americans. Within 5 months, all 23 Americans would return home and each was sworn to secrecy. One man, James Roman, blew the whistle and went public with the story in early 1994.

    "Once we were freed, they all sat us down in a room and we were told by the CIA that we were under no circumstances to go public with our stories. It would have to be withheld, even from our families. They gave each of us elaborate stories to tell our loved ones to explain why we couldn't reach them," James Roman testifying before Congress (02/11/94)

    The Kennedy Administration denied the claims, labeling Roman as a sensationalist. Congress quickly launched an investigation. One congressman, Newt Gingrich, was chosen to be the ranking member of the special committee assigned to investigate the claims. He used this opportunity to improve his national image and make a case to voters for the upcoming midterm elections.

    "If what we heard today is true, this could represent the largest Presidential scandal in history. Now, I am sure that Mr. Roman does not make this allegation lightly. Records indicate that he has dedicated his life to serving his country. We are going to get to the bottom of this, Mr. Roman. I assure you," Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA) (02/13/94)

    Late that summer, a bombshell report would be published in the Washington Post which contained leaked documents dated December of 1992 that all but confirmed that the CIA did cover up the fact that 23 Americans were held hostage by the Soviets for months after the Berlin Wall Skirmish.  President Kennedy denied knowledge and insisted that the CIA conducted the cover-up themselves. The head of the CIA tendered his resignation the day after the report was released. On the blistering campaign trail, the word "impeachment" became more frequent.

    1994 Midterms

    The 1994 Midterms were extremely successful for the GOP. Tapping into Americans' dissatisfaction with the Kennedy Administration, especially newfound anger from the Berlin Scandal, the GOP was able to take complete control of congress for the first time in many decades.

    The GOP freshmen were ideological and aggressive. Their goal was to derail, possibly even end, the second Kennedy term. Gingrich was crowned as speaker for this new congress, signaling a difficult final stretch for Kennedy.

    Rise of the Internet

    By the mid-90s, the Internet was becoming a more and more important part of the Western Global Economy. The rising internet presented a problem for the Second-World, most especially the Soviet Union. Wishing to modernize the Soviet economy, leadership found it harder and harder to do without using the new Western technology. The Politburo's solution was to create a specialized Internet for exclusive use for the government and approved businesses. Communiction with Western users, even on these specialized networks, were blocked. The public was not allowed to use the service.

    1996 Presidential Primaries

    Major Democratic Candidates:
    • Senator Al Gore (D-TN)
    Gore was a rising star within the Democratic Party and a favorite for the nomination from the moment that he announced. The Tennesse Senator positioned himself as a moderate, making him friends in the increasingly right-wing South. He maintained friendly relations with Kennedy and championed select progressive efforts such as healthcare while embracing some right-wing proposals such as being more tough on crime.
    • Senator Tom Harkin (D-Iowa)
    Harkin embodied the fading populist wing of the Democratic Party. He split with the Democrats on trade, speaking out against NAFTA and arguing that the party had abandoned the working class.
    • Former Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA)
    Brown argued that Kennedy's administration had not been progressive enough. The former Caliafornia Governor embraced emgering but unpopular liberal social issues such as gay marriage.
    • Secretary Jesse Jackson (D-Washington D.C.)
    Having served as Secretary of Labor under Kennedy, Jesse Jackson launched a second attempt at the presidency. While not gaining much momentum, he gained support from several establishment Democrats.
    [/list]

    Major Republican Candidates:

    • Former Secretary Donald Rumsfeld (R-KS)
    Rumsfeld picked 1996 to pursue his presidential ambitions. His campaign was aggressive and had a focus on foreign policy, ponient with Republicans who felt Kennedy had weakened the US Military.

    • Mr. Pat Buchanan (R-VA)
    After failing in 1992, Buchanan launched yet another insurgent campaign in 96. He gained momentum due to his name recognition from his previous campaign, but was not able to secure a base as loyal as his previous attempts.

    • Former Secretary Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
    • Mr. Steve Forbes (R-NY)


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    paxamericana
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    « Reply #16 on: October 10, 2022, 12:54:09 PM »

    1996 Presidential Election




    With his campaign reflecting a more aggressive conservative base unleashed during the midterms, Rumsfeld secured the GOP nomination. He would challenge Al Gore for the Presidency.

    Gore attempted to craft himself as a moderate Democrat in an attempt to shed the liberal image of Kennedy which had become unpopular in the waning years of his second term. He distanced himself from policies such as the Nuclear Freeze and placed heavy emphasis on getting tougher on crime.

    The primary issue of the campaign became defense spending and foreign policy. Military experts began to warn in 1995 that the Soviet Military was on track to becoming the world's most powerful military by the year 2000. With Kennedy cutting the military's budget, the Defense Industry became very vocal about out-of-date equipment and how the military was unprepared for any sort of conventional war. To many Americans, the failure at Berlin and the lack of military action in the Baltics signaled a weakening military. Rumsfeld made this issue a major theme of his campaign, emphasizing the need to keep up with the Soviets and the danger of outdated equipment.

    Defense became an even more significant concern in October of 1996 after Left-Wing terrorists targeted the U.S. Embassy in France. 2 soldiers and dozens more were wounded after a car bomb exploded outside of the building. Investigations showed that the military was ill-prepared to react to this attack and the preparators remained at large. In addition, military personnel was unable to pacify a violent riot that had erupted outside of the complex. Rumsfeld pointed to this as a prime example of military incompetence and the urgent need to modernize the military. Gore's brushing off of Rumsfeld's defense spending hike became more unpopular after the attack.

    Rumsfeld went on to win a slim victory against Gore, with the tipping-point state being Missouri with a narrow 0.3% margin for the GOP. Republicans also maintained their majorities in both chambers of Congress.   
    The Rumsfeld Administration

    "The natural state of man is to want to be free. To have opportunities. To have choices. We must create a government where all are unburdened and unchained by an all-imposing government. The United States is the freest country on earth. We, therefore, have a responsibility to protect the free world against the ever-present threat of authoritarianism and Communism," President Donald Rumsfeld during his inaugural address (01/20/1997)

    The first days of the Rumsfeld Presidency were a politics of musical chairs. A complete reversal of Kennedy's tax increases was the first priority of the new administration. A GOP trifecta ensured that the tax cuts would pass easily. An ambitious Defense increase quickly came afterward, to the tune of nearly 500 million dollars for modernized systems and new nuclear weapons. The Defense Hike, as it came to be known, was met with heavy opposition from anti-war activists and led to a national renewal of the Nuclear Freeze movement that had faltered during the Kennedy years.

    NATO also engaged in a military build-up along the West German and Italian borders as tensions with the East renewed in light of the collapse of Yugoslavia. Rumsfeld also ensured that the alliance would invest in anti-terrorist defenses in light of the rise of Left-Wing terrorist movements across Europe.

    Fall of Yugoslavia

    While the United States was occupied by Kennedy's Berlin Scandal in the mid-90s, Yugoslavia began to collapse. Since Tito's death a decade earlier, the country was held together only by foreign aid from the Soviets. Yanayev had the belief that if a communist state in the Baltics were not maintained, the entire region would fall to capitalism which would strengthen the West. By 1996, Slobodan Milošević came to power which significantly increased ethnic tensions. The federal republics were swept by a series of nationalist parties by April of 1996, all promising to oppose Milošević's Serbian government. Croatia's government was the first to secede, leading to a domino effect of independence.

    Yanayev suspected that these nationalist movements were artificial and simply a ploy by the west to establish Western puppet governments throughout the Baltics. The Soviets drew closer to Milošević and entangled themselves in the complex ethnic feuds in the region.

    Kennedy avoided getting entangled in the complicated web of ethnic tensions, but Rumsfeld saw the Yugoslavic Wars as an important battleground against the Communists. He sought to ensure the right of these nations to exist as sovereign and democratic entities. old Cold War tensions flared up yet again.

    Rise of Left-Wing Extremists

    "The single biggest threat to our country at this present moment is far left domestic terrorists-- it is the newest front in our ongoing struggle against the communists," Secretary of Defense John Bolton (08/23/1997)

    "We must continue to root out communism in all of its forms: here and abroad. In the universities and in the classroom, our children are being taught radical marxist ideas by self-proclaimed socialists. This leftist influtration of the schools must end," President Donald Rumsfeld during the State of the Union address (02/04/1998)

    The attack of the US embassy in France brought international attention to the issue of left wing terrorism. Such movements were present in the county since at least the 1960s, but had mostly faded away after the end of the Vietnam War. Under the direction of Kennedy, the CIA scaled back the spying of left-wing groups that had been occurring for decades. This gave new momentum to radical groups, who by now had fled the United States.

    Rumsfeld launched an aggressive and public campaign to root out these groups. Additionally, he suggested a ban of domestic socialist parties and a purging of all Marxists from the university system. The hawisk right celebrated these ideas, but liberals reacted very negatively. Very quickly, comparisons to the McCarthy Era where drawn. A slew of proment university professors began to move to Europe, out of fears that they would lose their jobs or even be arrested. International leaders also condemned these ideas as radical.

    In the midst of this controversy, one radical leftist group long thought to be disbanded hatched a plan to bring the nation to its knees.

     
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    Huey Long is a Republican
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    « Reply #17 on: October 10, 2022, 02:16:06 PM »

    Y'know, this really makes me wanna do a TL where Ike dies in a plane crash in 1951 and Castro dies from a car crash in 1955. Meanwhile, Walt Disney becomes President with MacArthur as either his State or Defense Sec (idk for other positions), appoints actual conservatives to the court, and Stalin lives longer to the age of 87 in 1965 and is continuously succeeded by Stalinists. This greatly effect international politics in a variety of ways but I'm unsure of how to go about it.

    Great TL, however.
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    paxamericana
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    « Reply #18 on: October 24, 2022, 07:38:59 PM »

    The Resignation of Yanayev
    By the late 90's, Gennady Yanayev's health had rapidly declined. After suffering a stroke in 1997, Yanayev was unable to function normally. The politburo decided to replace Yanayev, strongly encouraged by Boris Yeltsin, who had gained significant power and influence within the Soviet political sphere. Yeltsin was appointed as the new General Secretary of the Party.


    Yeltsin was less rigidly ideological than Yanayev. While he generally held more conservative views, he was far more sympathetic to reform movements. He did not share the opinion of his predecessor that they were a threat to the union. In fact, Yeltsin professed a need for fresh faces and fresh ideas within the party. He was also far less interested in foreign affairs, disapproving of the Soviet's intervention in Yugoslavia. Yeltsin also had a more hands-off approach when it came to dealing with Eastern Europe. While maintaining Soviet military presence, direct intervention in their affairs was limited.

    Yeltsin's Trade Liberalization Efforts

    Economic reforms became the central focus of Yeltsin's efforts. Not sharing Yanayev's hesitancy for western economic ideas, he sought to empower businesses and even open up the country to western trade. He found little success in expanding trade with the United States, due to Rumsfeld's aggressive anti-communist positions. However, significant trade agreements were reached with the emerging European Union.

    UK's Tony Blair became the face of a new movement of Western tolerance of Communism. Blair was instrumental in the EU's historic trade deal with the Soviets, greatly expanding trade between the two spheres. The movement, which came to be known as the "tolerance movement," called for greater cooperation between the East and West and an end to military intervention in Yugoslavia and other regions. The movement was embraced by most center-left parties in Europe and a large number of Democratic voters and politicians.

    "We must put an end to the outdated Cold War paradigm that has resulted in unnecessary loss of life, the displacement of millions, and horrendous living conditions for those in the so-called third-world," Prime Minister Tony Blair before the United Nations (09/23/1998)

    "The President has made this very clear: we are not going to increase trade with the Soviet Empire," Secretary of State Dick Cheney (09/25/1998)
    1998 Midterms
    Keeping with trends, the President's party lost seats in the House. However, many popular incumbents in swing districts managed to keep the losses minimal. In the Senate, Democrats gained 4 seats but Republicans were able to maintain the majority. The relative popularity of the Rumsfeld Administration and rising opposition to trade with the Soviets were credited with keeping GOP losses low.



    Major Accomplishments of Rumsfeld

    • Passage of 1997 Military Modernization Act
    • Passage of 1998 Tax Reform Act: slashed corporate tax rate by 10% and income tax rate by 5%, created new tax exemptions for families
    • Elimination of thousands of federal regulations, most especially in the Departments of Trade, Education, and the EPA
    • New Millennium Education Act (NMEA) which increased funding for magnet schools, modern technologies and repealed parts of the National Education Standards Act
    • Signifcant institutional reforms to the Department of Defense and a streamlining of emergency protocols
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    paxamericana
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    « Reply #19 on: November 07, 2022, 02:07:20 PM »

    The Progressive Left and the New Counterculture

    "Donald Rumsfeld is a neo-fascist who is seeking to use fear to grasp power at every opportunity. If he gets his way, all of his critics and opponents will either be forcefully silenced or even jailed..." Michael Moore during the "Rise and Resist" Rally in Washington D.C. (March 04, 1999)

    The ensuing controversy from Rumsfeld's attempted ban of socialist political parties embolden young left-wingers who had faded from public attention since the end of the Vietnam War. This New Left (dubbed the Progressive Left) advocated for détente against the Soviet Union and championed a number of social movements such as feminism, drug reform and gay rights. Adherents to the movement also spoke out strongly against the expansion of the military's budget and intervention in Serbia. Growing wealth inequality and wage stagnation were frequently brought up by the movement.

    The movement originated from a group of college professors from Political Science departments who challenged the negative view of the Soviet Union prevalent within their fields. To these professors, the economic policies of the Soviet Union had merit and their ideology was preferable to that of the capitalists.

    By the late 1990s, protests on college campuses over income inequality and military intervention in Yugoslavia began to break out. These were far smaller and less intense than protests over Vietnam, but nevertheless, they received national attention.

    Like the New Left of old, most mainstream Democratic politicians ignored the movement. Liberal Democrats embraced certain aspects of the movement, especially détente, in order to keep younger voters supportive.

    The movement was met with aggressive opposition from the GOP, especially Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. As the movement had its origins in colleges, the Republican Party launched a campaign against the university system. President Rumsfeld signed an executive order to withhold federal funding from universities that employed open Marxists and Socialists. This prompted a legal back and forth between the Rumsfeld Administration and the Courts.


    "This dangerous new leftism tells our children that the Americans and Soviets have no differences, and that cooperation with the evil Soviet Empire must be established. We must stamp out this marxist ideology at its source: the universities," Speaker Newt Gingrich defending Rumsfeld's executive order on the house floor (May 21, 1999)
     
    2000 Democratic Primaries

    Major Candidates

    Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)

    Elvert Barnes/Wikimedia Commons

    As governor of Vermont for 8 years, Dean established himself as an ally of the Progressive Left. He was one of the most prominent proponents of the neo-detente movement and frequently criticized Rumsfeld's military expansions and tax policies. Because of this, Dean's candidacy was viewed as a long shot. However, the Vermont governor was able to outraise all of his Democratic opponents in the run-up to the primaries thanks to his use of the internet.

    He stood out amongst his Democratic rivals by proposing a military spending cut and a policy of neutrality with the Soviet Union.  Dean also promised to repeal Rumsfeld's tax cuts, instead implementing a tax break for middle-class Americans.

    Senator Al Gore (D-TN)
    Office of the Vice President of the United States/Wikimedia Commons

    Despite his defeat in 1996, the Tennessee Senator remained very popular within the party. In congress, Gore launched very frequent critiques of Rumsfeld's administration and even headlined the Democrat's State of the Union response in 1998. Because of this, pundits already viewed him as a potential candidate. Therefore, Gore's 2000 campaign announcement came as no surprise to anyone. He immediately became the frontrunner in the race.

    Gore would change very little in terms of policy proposals. In the face of the growing progressive movement, his moderate policy toward the Soviet Union was maintained. He also embraced free trade but steered away from the issue of expanding trade with the Soviets.

    Fmr. Senator Bill Bradley (D-NJ)
    Wikimedia Commons

    After recently retiring from politics, the former New Jersey Senator's campaign announcement came as a surprise to many. The Liberal icon focused primarily on universal healthcare, supporting a plan very similar to Former President Ted Kennedy's failed bill. He also advocated for campaign finance reform, gun control, and education reforms.
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    paxamericana
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    « Reply #20 on: November 30, 2022, 01:20:37 PM »

    2000 Presidential Election

    Wikimedia Commons

    "I promise you that as President, I will do everything I can to take this country back for the people who built it. We will fight for health insurance for every single American, we will create a jobs program that will create jobs instead of destroying them, we will stand up for middle-class and working Americans who got a tax increase, not a tax cut, and-- we will have a foreign policy which relies on the President of the United States telling the truth to the American people before we send our brave soldiers to fight in a foreign war," Governor Howard Dean during his acceptance speech (July 23, 2000)

    "There has been a shift in the world, it is a difficult world, a dangerous world, a world that is essentially unlike us in our belief in political and economic freedom. As that shift has taken place, we have less margin for error. America must be an unapologetic beacon of freedom for the world in the face of such danger," President Donald Rumsfeld during his acceptance speech (July 29, 2000)

    Against all odds, Governor Howard Dean secured the Democratic Nomination and faced off against incumbent President Rumsfeld in the general election.  Dean selected primary rival Bill Bradley as his running mate. Dean's campaign was focused on domestic issues, primarily trade and healthcare. Rumsfeld focused his reelection effort on the economy and the ongoing threat of communism. He boosted his accomplishments toward military strength and actions in the war in Yugoslavia. Rumsfeld also warned of the rising threat of Left Wing Terror, which Dean believed was greatly exaggerated.

    Polls showed a tight race. While most Americans credited Rumsfeld with a prosperous economy, military intervention in Yugoslavia became increasingly unpopular. Many struggled to understand the fundamentals of the conflict and resisted any further involvement beyond military aid and bombings. Yeltsin's rise to power in the Soviet Union also discredited Rumsfeld's aggressive accusations toward the USSR in the eyes of many. A growing number of Americans found themselves exhausted by the Cold War paradigm and wished to focus on domestic issues.

    However, fear of Communism was still a motivating factor, particularly for older voters. Rumsfeld's warnings of radical leftists in schools and the rise of left-wing extremists resonated with the Republican base. Evangelicals also clung to this idea. An attack on a US Embassy in France, which left 9 Americans dead, only intensified these fears. In the end, Rumsfeld won a narrow reelection victory-- prompted by older voters' lingering fears of communism.





    Rumsfeld's Second Term

    With the economy booming at the turn of the century, Rumsfeld began to shift his focus toward other domestic issues at the beginning of his second term. Educational reform became the focus of the Rumsfeld administration, which had been a focus of conservatives since Kennedy's education reforms. Conservative circles decried the removal of school prayer and curriculums they felt demonized America and undermined the country's history.

    The New Millienum Education Act had produced significant reforms for technology and gave power back to the states when it came to Education. However, one target for Conservatives: the National Teacher Corps. The goal was simple: elimate the organization. However, this proved to be easier said than done.

    Like Rumsfeld's attempts to purge socialism from universities, several legal challenges were launched against his attempt's to disband the Corps. Evenually, Rumsfeld won the fight and the Corps were disbanded.

    Riding high from this quickly obtained victory, Rumsfeld's administration had confidence that the next four years would be peaceful and prosperous on the domestic front.

    The Day the World Stopped Turning

    "BREAKING: MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS REPORTED AT J EDGAR HOOVER BUILDING," AP News, (05/19/2001)

    "This just in, you are looking at obviously a very disturbing live shot there. And we are looking at some sort of massive explosion outside of the J Edgar Hoover Building in Washington D.C. CNN Center right now is working on this story, calling our sources and trying to figure out exactly what happened, but clearly something horrific has taken place," CNN Breaking News Coverage.

    "We want to tell you what we know as we know it, but we have just gotten a report in that there has been some sort of explosion at the World Trade Center in New York City. One report said, and we can't confirm this, that a plane may have hit one of the two towers. We have no further details. Obiviously just a couple of minutes ago, an explosion was reported at the J Edgar Hoover Building. One thing we can say for sure, something horrific is currently unfolding here. Possibly a terrorist act," ABC Breaking News Coverage

    "AMERICA UNDER ATTACK: MASSIVE EXPLOSION AT WORLD TRADE CENTER," CNN (05/19/2001)

    "Oh... another one just hit! Something else just hit, a very large plane, right into the other tower. If there were any doubts whether this was on purpose, they've just been eliminated. It it very clear that we are in the midst of a massive terror attack," NBC Coverage

    "ANOTHER EXPLOSION REPORTED AT PENTAGON," AP News

    "The White House has just confirmed that President Rumsfeld is in a secure location. In just a few minutes, he is expected to comment on the horrific attacks," Peter Jennings, ABC News

    Wikimedia Commons

    "Clearly, this is a very difficult moment for America. Today, we've had a national tragedy. Two planes have crashed into the World Trade Center, and several other buildings in the DC area have been targeted in an apparent terrorist attack. I've spoken to the Director of the FBI, the Joint Cheifs and the Vice President and have ordered that the full resources of the federal government be directed to finding those responsible," President Rumsfeld's first response to the attack.

    "ONE SUSPECT DETAINED IN DC, TRUCK FILLED WITH EXPLOSIVES RECOVERED,"NBC News

    "An update from Washington: a man believed to be connected to the attacks has been arrested just moments ago. We have unconfirmed reports that the man claimed to be part of the President's Security Detail and was headed toward the White House with a truck full of explosives," CNN Coverage

    "As for the perpetrators of this horrendous action, we do not at this time know for sure. Surely, top federal officials are suspecting some sort of Communist or Socialist terrorist organization. Regardless-- one thing is clear, this was an act of war," Peter Jennings, ABC News
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    BigVic
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    « Reply #21 on: December 01, 2022, 11:20:11 PM »

    September 15 2001 is a Saturday and on a weekend. 9/25 two week delay from OTL.
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    BigVic
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    « Reply #22 on: December 01, 2022, 11:21:21 PM »

    A bigger terrorist attack will make Rummy’s presidency interesting
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    paxamericana
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    « Reply #23 on: January 02, 2023, 11:39:15 PM »

    "Tonight we are a country awakened to danger and called to defend freedom.  Our grief has turned to anger, and anger to resolution.  Whether we bring our enemies to justice, or bring justice to our enemies, justice will be done. Our intelligence tells us that a loosely organized group of socialist's known as the May 19th Communist Organization coordinated these attacks from Cuba. Tonight-- we make the following demands to the Castro Regime: release to us all leaders and members of MC19 that hide within your borders or you will be held responsible for these attacks," President Donald Rumsfeld addressing a joint session of Congress (May 25 2001)

    The Rise of MC19CO

    The May 19th Communist Organization ceased operations after most of its members were arrested after a small scale Senate bombing in 1985. Elizabeth Ann Duke fled to Cuba and began plotting a much larger attack than the 1985 bombing.

    The revived M19CO was over 200 members strong. About 80% of the group was comprised of Far-Left radicals who fled the United States, the rest were young Cuban radicals.

    The Castro regime had previously approved Duke's asylum request and around the mid-1990s, became aware of her growing operations. While not lending public support to her movement, Castro would give it safe haven in his country.

    Duke envisioned an attack that would cripple the United States militarily and financially and would be the basis of a communist revolution. The day of the attack was inspired by the group's namesake twin birthdays of Malcolm X and former Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh. She selected targets that would represent symbols of America's power.

    Utilizing a network of left-wing radicals, she organized the attack. The plan was to cripple the United States in order to create chaos and inspire a socialist revolution. Duke believed that Communist nations throughout the world would take advantage of the chaos she would create and send aid to American revolutionaries.

    Despite her attack becoming the largest terrorist attack ever committed on US soil, it did not all go according to plan. At least three undetonated bombs were discovered in the abandoned upstate New York home used to coordinate the attacks. All three bombs were comparable in size to the ones which detonated at the J. Edgar Hoover Building. According to FBI intelligence, the bombs were each planned to be detonated in Washington D.C. It is not known which buildings were to be targeted.

    War In Cuba

    "The Cuban Regime has repeatedly denied our requests to surrender MC19. We are now left with no other option than to use military force. Today, I have order the United States military to begin a coordinated attack against terrorist targets within the rouge regime of Cuba. Fidel Castro and MC19's leaders will all be brought to justice within the coming weeks,President Donald Rumsfeld announcing the beginning of the War in Cuba (June 07, 2001)


    Nearly one month after the attacks, the United States found itself at war with a regime that had been in its crosshairs for several decades. Once US officials tracked the terrorist organization to Cuba, concerns emerged on how the Soviet Union would react to an invasion of the nation. Luckily for Rumsfeld, Yeltsin withdrew support for a regime they had given aid to since the 60s and even vocally supported an invasion. In a rare moment of unanimous international support, the US launched their invasion. They were joined by their NATO allies, as Article Five of the NATO charter was invoked for the first time in the history of the alliance.

    The initial phase of the war was over in a matter of months. Elizabeth Duke remained at large, but Fidel Castro was taken into custody. His capture was widely celebrated throughout the western world. In the US, Rumsfeld's approval ratings skyrocketed to a record 92%. The public approved of the shift action taken against Cuba. However-- MC19 still remained active within the newly occupied Cuba.

    The Freedom Act

    "After the unprecedented terror attacks on our great nation, Congress has unanimously come together in order to strengthen the defenses of our great nation and protect what is so near and dear to every American: freedom," President Donald Rumsfeld upon signing the Freedom Act (June 14, 2001)

    After the attacks of May 19, the Rumsfeld Administration put pressure on Congress to deliver extensive legislation to strengthen the US's national security. The massive bill created the Department of Homeland Security, strengthened surveillance efforts throughout all departments, and banned all domestic communist and socialist parties. While many major Democratic figures quietly opposed the bill, only the most ideological congressmen voted against it.

    The Republican controlled House also created a committee to investigate the attacks and radical left wing organizations.


    "The intelligence that our committee has gathered and has presented to the Rumsfeld Administration tells us that there is an underground network of militant, radical communist organizations operating not only in Cuba, but here at home. It is a very clear danger and its just the latest front in the communist's war against the great principles of the United States," Speaker Newt Gingrich during a townhall event (August 23, 2001)
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    hurricanehink
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    « Reply #24 on: January 05, 2023, 10:32:15 AM »

    I wonder if this TL will see calls for Cuban statehood, like we saw some (minor) calls for Iraq to become the 51st state during the Iraq war.
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