Long term, what red states do Democrats have potential in?

[Sol]

I agree with this post, but I disagree with the notion that NC is a "lost hope"

Dems still got very favorable swings out of the metros like Charlotte and Raleigh, more than they probably could've asked for.

However, unlike states like VA, CO, and GA, the state still has notable countertrends due to how dense the western appalachian part of the state is, keeping the shift relatively neutral overall. A state like Colorado on the other hand is almost entirely urban/suburban communities, many of which have high educational attainment.

If you snipped off everything West of Charlotte, NC would actually be nearly identical to VA politically, geographically, and demographically.

It is entirely possible Republicans have reached their limit in growing Appalachia and urban shifts overpower it. It's also possible we start to see countershifts within urban areas causing the state to shift right as a whole. I do think NC will eventually begin to swing one way or another though as the narrow balance that has kept it's shifts neutral are unlikely to continue forever.

The swings which prevented NC from voting for Biden weren't concentrated in the Western part of the state:

[Sol]

If you count any state Trump carried last time, North Carolina without question.  Among states he carried by over 5%, Texas and Alaska.

I think you have to add Florida too. Even if it doesn't seem that promising it's easier to imagine a scenario where FL votes for a Democratic presidential candidate than Alaska tbh.

[Sol]

I agree with this post, but I disagree with the notion that NC is a "lost hope"

Dems still got very favorable swings out of the metros like Charlotte and Raleigh, more than they probably could've asked for.

However, unlike states like VA, CO, and GA, the state still has notable countertrends due to how dense the western appalachian part of the state is, keeping the shift relatively neutral overall. A state like Colorado on the other hand is almost entirely urban/suburban communities, many of which have high educational attainment.

If you snipped off everything West of Charlotte, NC would actually be nearly identical to VA politically, geographically, and demographically.

It is entirely possible Republicans have reached their limit in growing Appalachia and urban shifts overpower it. It's also possible we start to see countershifts within urban areas causing the state to shift right as a whole. I do think NC will eventually begin to swing one way or another though as the narrow balance that has kept it's shifts neutral are unlikely to continue forever.

The swings which prevented NC from voting for Biden weren't concentrated in the Western part of the state:

Not specifically 2016-2020 but just overall. 2020 was prolly the first Pres election in a while where Appalachia trends truly stalled

Shifts in western North Carolina aren't really like West Virginia or Eastern KY--they're relatively mild on account of a relatively weak Democratic party historically in many areas. There was a strong trend in 2016 but in 2012 the trend to Republicans was pretty mild, and then Obama actually got a decently strong swing in most of western North Carolina even if it was technically a Republican trend (things that happen when you get a landslide!)

In any case, the predominant influence of Western North Carolina on NC politics isn't a Republican trend, it's just that it's relatively Republican in general regardless of shifts and trends between election cycles (though Western NC is still to the left of comparable parts of the country, like North Georgia or East Tennessee).