Long term, what red states do Democrats have potential in?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with Nebraska is that it's going to lose a district in 2030 so even if NE-02 flips before then and is a pretty consistent D district (likely) it won't be winnable after a ton of rural areas get added. Sure an Omaha to Lincoln district could be drawn but that's basically a D gerrymander and not happening.

However Idaho should gain a district the same Census and that might open up a pretty solid D seat around Boise.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually have hope for North Carolina, for a pretty clear reason: It's a state where Republicans used to rely on an urban vote that's rapidly disintegrating. Charlotte used to have a notable large triangle shaped area from downtown to the southern border that voted solidly Republican. In 2020 it was almost all gone, just two disconnected Trump precincts remained. And then there's the incredible R collapse in the Raleigh area, hard to believe that Bush both times and Dole carried Wake County with how it votes now...not to mention Biden won Cary by a 2:1 margin, a Democrat won an affluent white suburb in the South by that margin, now that's mindblowing.

Some might say that's cancelled out by swings in the east, but most of the rural east has a notable black population, so there's a floor to how far Democrats can fall, and they're pretty close to it in most areas. It's true that rural black areas tend to empty out even faster than rural white areas, but that's still a slower process, especially considering how many of those black voters are just moving to Raleigh or Durham or Charlotte anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with Nebraska is that it's going to lose a district in 2030 so even if NE-02 flips before then and is a pretty consistent D district (likely) it won't be winnable after a ton of rural areas get added. Sure an Omaha to Lincoln district could be drawn but that's basically a D gerrymander and not happening.

However Idaho should gain a district the same Census and that might open up a pretty solid D seat around Boise.

I don't think it's going to lose a district anytime soon? But even if that were the case, over half of the added areas would come from suburban Sarpy alone. It would only be Trump +3 in 2020

It's the least populated 3 district state. In fact it's right ahead of Idaho in population. Idaho will definitely overtake it by 2030. Although Nebraska's population growth was exactly that of the country at large, so if it continues that it may not lose it and both it and Idaho will be three district states.

Looks like both Nebraska and Idaho will overtake New Mexico though...maybe that'll be the state to lose one instead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW I actually probably overestimated how badly losing a district would hurt the Democrats in NE-02, I drew a two-district map and if NE-02 becomes basically a sliver of counties across the Iowa border it's only about Trump +4, considering that's based on 2020 Census numbers and would in 2030 include less rural areas and that Omaha might shift left by then, it'd possibly still be a D-leaning district. Maybe Tilt D.

Meanwhile in Idaho I ended up with a district that Trump still won by 9 points, although it voted only about 4 points for Little. Now that would be a lot closer considering how fast growing that area is and that it possibly might even be a solely Ada County-based district, but still more of a tossup, at least at first.