Rate a Trump vs. DeSantis primary

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate a Trump vs. DeSantis match-up.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean Trump

[BG-NY]

Trump wins every state except Utah by double digits. Not even close.

[dw93]

Tilt Trump. DeSantis is gaining momentum and from what I understand FOX is ready to dump Trump.

[TPIG]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

[Tekken_Guy]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

I disagree. I think DeSantis is very capable of withstanding attacks from Trump and pushing back. He’s not going to just roll over for Trump. Also, the polling has been getting worse for Trump lately.

[TPIG]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

I disagree. I think DeSantis is very capable of withstanding attacks from Trump and pushing back. He’s not going to just roll over for Trump. Also, the polling has been getting worse for Trump lately.

I wouldn't be so sure. Trump has not, up to this point, gone gloves off on DeSantis, and so I don't think there's much evidence to say that DeSantis can withstand the barrage. However, there is plentiful evidence that even politicians popular with the GOP base (think Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, etc) can all massively lose favor once the attacks actually get going.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

I disagree. I think DeSantis is very capable of withstanding attacks from Trump and pushing back. He’s not going to just roll over for Trump. Also, the polling has been getting worse for Trump lately.

I wouldn't be so sure. Trump has not, up to this point, gone gloves off on DeSantis, and so I don't think there's much evidence to say that DeSantis can withstand the barrage. However, there is plentiful evidence that even politicians popular with the GOP base (think Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, etc) can all massively lose favor once the attacks actually get going.

Keep in mind DeSantis has the power of quasi-incumbency to actually control the narrative in a way the other did not in any way. One of the advantages of incumbency is the ability push policies at the specific times to boost your numbers and DeSantis could very much do that.

[TPIG]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

I disagree. I think DeSantis is very capable of withstanding attacks from Trump and pushing back. He’s not going to just roll over for Trump. Also, the polling has been getting worse for Trump lately.

I wouldn't be so sure. Trump has not, up to this point, gone gloves off on DeSantis, and so I don't think there's much evidence to say that DeSantis can withstand the barrage. However, there is plentiful evidence that even politicians popular with the GOP base (think Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, etc) can all massively lose favor once the attacks actually get going.

Keep in mind DeSantis has the power of quasi-incumbency to actually control the narrative in a way the other did not in any way. One of the advantages of incumbency is the ability push policies at the specific times to boost your numbers and DeSantis could very much do that.

I certainly hope you're right. I do have doubts, though, that people will critically examine and appreciate policy successes/pushes of DeSantis when Trump is busy dogpiling him. In a real and unfortunate sense, Trump isn't just a part of the GOP narrative, he sets the narrative.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

I disagree. I think DeSantis is very capable of withstanding attacks from Trump and pushing back. He’s not going to just roll over for Trump. Also, the polling has been getting worse for Trump lately.

I wouldn't be so sure. Trump has not, up to this point, gone gloves off on DeSantis, and so I don't think there's much evidence to say that DeSantis can withstand the barrage. However, there is plentiful evidence that even politicians popular with the GOP base (think Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, etc) can all massively lose favor once the attacks actually get going.

Keep in mind DeSantis has the power of quasi-incumbency to actually control the narrative in a way the other did not in any way. One of the advantages of incumbency is the ability push policies at the specific times to boost your numbers and DeSantis could very much do that.

I certainly hope you're right. I do have doubts, though, that people will critically examine and appreciate policy successes/pushes of DeSantis when Trump is busy dogpiling him. In a real and unfortunate sense, Trump isn't just a part of the GOP narrative, he sets the narrative.

No but what could happen is DeSantis passes some conservative bill say a week before IA/NH and the media goes all out to attack it and then that actually results in DeSantis dominating the narrative. Then if DeSantis wins one of them, then the narrative starts to shift to him having the momentum.

Keep in mind all DeSantis needs is 2 of the early 4 cause primaries are all about momentum and if he does that I would say he would be the favorite. National Polls do not matter as much as those early 4 states

[TPIG]

My pessimism makes me think likely Trump. As much as I'd like to believe that failures of Trump-backed candidates this primary season show his weakness, I genuinely believe that once Trump announces, the GOP will largely fall in line. Many voters currently saying they may support DeSantis, I could easily imagine flipping on him once Trump drags him through the mud. I desperately hope to be wrong, but we'll see...

I disagree. I think DeSantis is very capable of withstanding attacks from Trump and pushing back. He’s not going to just roll over for Trump. Also, the polling has been getting worse for Trump lately.

I wouldn't be so sure. Trump has not, up to this point, gone gloves off on DeSantis, and so I don't think there's much evidence to say that DeSantis can withstand the barrage. However, there is plentiful evidence that even politicians popular with the GOP base (think Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, etc) can all massively lose favor once the attacks actually get going.

Keep in mind DeSantis has the power of quasi-incumbency to actually control the narrative in a way the other did not in any way. One of the advantages of incumbency is the ability push policies at the specific times to boost your numbers and DeSantis could very much do that.

I certainly hope you're right. I do have doubts, though, that people will critically examine and appreciate policy successes/pushes of DeSantis when Trump is busy dogpiling him. In a real and unfortunate sense, Trump isn't just a part of the GOP narrative, he sets the narrative.

No but what could happen is DeSantis passes some conservative bill say a week before IA/NH and the media goes all out to attack it and then that actually results in DeSantis dominating the narrative. Then if DeSantis wins one of them, then the narrative starts to shift to him having the momentum.

Keep in mind all DeSantis needs is 2 of the early 4 cause primaries are all about momentum and if he does that I would say he would be the favorite. National Polls do not matter as much as those early 4 states

It's definitely a good strategy - heck, one of the main reasons Brian Kemp remained popular with GA Republicans despite his Trump spat was specifically because of how the media reacted to the new election law he championed. That same principle can obviously be applied to early 2024 primaries; I just hope that by that point, DeSantis is still within any sort of striking distance given that Trump will have already been pummeling him for months. I'm just pessimistic here. I 100% hope you're right.

[Del Tachi]

The "nowcast" is Lean Trump only because of his higher name recognition, but DeSantis would definitely give him stiff competition. 

[DaleCooper]

Likely Trump for now, but you can't give a confident prediction until the competition actually starts.