Prediction bragging time: I will now accept my accolades

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Predictions haven't been scored yet probably due to Georgia still being out but please note that this was my prediction for Senate:


Results:


Governor prediction:


Results:


I earned a brag.

[John Dule]

Those of us who didn’t succumb to red wave dooming should get some kind of award.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways the only difference that Johnson survived because no Incumbent Senator has lost reelection since 2016 and warning to Rs about counting on defeating Beshear, Brown, Manchin and Tester we might lose but it's not gonna sweep and we can win in a Prez yr FL or TX

Just because Ryan lost doesn't mean anything Tester, Brown and Manchin have survived since 2006

It's a whole new ballgame in a Prez yr in red states than a midterm higher turnout and Biden back in ballot , that's why Josh Stein can win the Gov Cooper has high approvals and Cooper won in 20 with Biden on ballot

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Looks about the same as mine! I had NV-SEN flipping for the entire cycle up until the night or two before, after Ralston posted his final predictions, and that emboldened me to switch at the last minute. I believe I did the same thing with the gubernatorial race in that state. Polls are a total crapshoot now and I'm inclined to give more weight to people who actually know their own states.

Speaking of prediction bragging, I wasn't posting here at the time but I always had Trump as the favorite for 2016, from the day he went down the escalator. Even my stats professor predicted on multiple occasions that Jeb would be nominated (and despite being a Republican himself, wasn't shy about how "asinine" he considered Trump's rhetoric to be.) I was very surprised that Trump won the GE, though.

The reason I don't brag about this very much is not only do I lack proof of me making that prediction, but prediction accuracy isn't nearly as important to me as it is to a lot of other posters apparently. It's really just a game at the end of the day that requires some good acumen, but mostly just luck.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Those of us who didn’t succumb to red wave dooming should get some kind of award.

You and me both.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

TalkElections is my publicly visible safe space for being an amateur pundit, so I think I deserve some credit for my 2021 predictions without knowing Dobbs or student loan forgiveness would happen. (Or that national Dems would stupidly try to rig certain R primaries in favor of Trumptard extremists, not that I think this had much impact). Still quite happy about Congressional Dems getting their S019 together to pass the Inflation Reduction Act.

Time for some mild D bloomerism *knocks on wood*

1) GOP gains less than 20 seats in the House

2) Senate remains tied.

3) Fetterman beats Dr. Oz in PA.

4) In SoCal, at least one of Michelle Steel and/or Mike Garcia lose reelection.

Glad I called Fetterman and Öz winning their primaries months in advance  

Not very confident in my original House and Senate predictions beyond R House D Senate, but I stand with at least one of Steele and/or Garcia losing.

I was correct on 1 and 3 (maybe 2 too with the qualification that the GA runoff won't decide Senate control) but 4 was clearly a bunch of hopium in a year with 8% inflation.

Re 4: while I'd have preferred both Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel lost reelection, I feel vindicated on some level that CA-45 is closer than CA-27. Steel's unabashed red-baiting and general density polarization aside, CA-45 was more of an open seat since very little of Steel's old district is in the new one, which meant Chen had more opportunity to gain ground with new voters than Smith would've as a third-time challenger to the incumbent.

Would not have expected 1 to happen (like at all), given the extent to which downballot Dems collapsed in NY and FL despite the FL gerrymander limiting the number of competitive House races there. Definitely did not think it was possible for Governor "don't say gay and also muh CRT" to win FL Latinos outright until Hurricane Ian and the early vote started coming in.

I was more bullish on NV-SEN for Dems than most of Atlas, because of Nevada's large Asian population and the state's rapid growth in recent years. I've noticed that states and metros that have trended D in recent years generally have larger Asian populations, while the reverse is true for R trending places like Florida. I also feel like there is stronger White-Asian polarization in the West (and possibly Midwest based on exit polls) than elsewhere in the country, and that diversification from transplants and international immigrants is keeping the D floor relatively high.

My premature R House majority predictions based on the Election Night early returns in SoCal turned out to be correct. I figured there was zero possibility of either Steel or Garcia losing if both were up by double digits with 40-50% of the vote in on Election Night. To me this meant the GOP would win all of the tossup seats in the West that hadn't already been called, which would guarantee a R House majority that I never thought would be in question.

[ProudModerate2]

[7,052,770]

Nice. You should start an election analysis/predictions YouTube channel. It would honestly be one of the better ones out there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nice. You should start an election analysis/predictions YouTube channel. It would honestly be one of the better ones out there.

I've thought of starting one talking about emo bands in the same way Finn McKenty talks about other bands...but I could do that too if I started it!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Those of us who didn’t succumb to red wave dooming should get some kind of award.

The Republicans doing as poorly as they did in most statewide elections should be an award in itself.

But still, you were all thoroughly vindicated and I tip my nonexistent hat to you, and I wish I had known better for the sake of my blood pressure before election day actually happened. I did for a bit from the late summer to early October, but I can only resist that incessant, nagging negative voice in my head for so long.

[Crumpets]

From my "predictions for 2022" last December. Pay no attention to anything else I may or may not have predicted in this post and edited out.

- Dems lose the House by about the same margin as they currently control it but keep the Senate.
- Stephen Breyer retires over the summer
- COVID is not in the top three main issues for voters in the midterms

[Schiff for Senate]

Predictions haven't been scored yet probably due to Georgia still being out but please note that this was my prediction for Senate:

This was actually my Senate prediction too, though admittedly it’s unofficial since I don’t have an account on Dave Leip’s Atlas.

[politicallefty]

I think I did better in overall score (including percentages).    (But yes, you definitely earned some bragging rights.)

Senate:



Governor:




Senate: If Warnock wins, I'll have nailed every Senate race. My misses on percentages will be HI, ND, NY, and KS. Kansas is frustratingly close to the line. I wasn't aware of the strong independent in ND. I underestimated Schatz. New York was just a disappointment all around.

Governors: I only missed Arizona, but I'm glad I did. Otherwise, my misses on percentages were CA, SD, KS, WI, OH, and VT. Newsom's failure to get above 60% really irritates me. I also didn't think Noem was popular enough to get above 60%. For Kansas, I was expecting Kelly to get just above 50%. The others are all fairly obvious.


If Warnock wins, this will be my best prediction for called races since 2012 (I got everything except ND-Sen). I had a very good overall percentage from 2008-2012. I didn't see the 2014 wave happening and, like many others, seriously underestimated the Trump effect in both 2016 and 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Note these are mock predictions a lot of users uses these map not for accuracy but to support their respective party and polls do lie I predicted Ryan and Beasley to win because how does Ryan go from 9 pts ahead to 10 pts down but it was true because DeWine won 60/40 Nan W was a disaster and I thought DeSantis was gonna win but not 60/40 it was clearly Hurricane IAN, the polls were all over the place


But, users kept saying LAXALT and Evers and Laura Kelly and Mark Kelly were toast and a lot of users got PA wrong

McMullin was terrible he was leading and then he lost like RYAN

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Senate:

I wasn't expecting Schumer to underpreform as much as he did from 2016.

GA is still out so I'll skip that but in NC I expected it to be like 2020

In WI I overestimated Johnson based on Incumbency

In OH I knew Manchin helping Ryan would make them dump money, it wouldn't be enough for Ryan to win but it would pull away from races where it was needed for the GOP.

In IA, Grassley is an 88 year old man in obvious decline

In ND, I didn't know how the Independent would do

In Utah, I thought it would be like 2016 where they would drag the Rs down into the 40s but the Rs still win

In AK, I based it off of the first round

Governor:

In VT, I should've known Scott was a Strong incumbent

In TN, I thought that the Dems would be a lot closer than they were

In KS, I thought that Kelly was strong enough to win a majority

In SD, my data was unreliable

In AZ, I knew that a number of factors would stop an R overperformance like Dobbs, QAnon and Mark Kelly being on the ballot

In NV, my only wrong prediction of the bunch, I knew it would be very close I just didn't know on what side

In OR, I knew that Johnson would not cross 10% and that their Dem bias is overwhelming

In ID, i didn't know Bundy would do so well

In AK, it was based on first round where I under estimated Dunleavy