Who will win the House of Representatives?

[°Leprechaun]

I don't expect a lot of votes for the third option, of course, but I am curious to see how high a percentage the second option will get.

My guess is option one, but we have a long way to go, so it might change dramatically before election day.

[Sir Mohamed]

The GOP is going to win the House.

I expect them to end up in the 228-234 seats range.

[Senator Incitatus]

I currently expect a very large Republican majority of around 250 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all depends on wave insurance seats Roe reversal has created an opening for under 30 yr olds to create a Prez turnout that we otherwise wouldn't have gotten just like Floyd did, as I said nothing is final until we get poll results not pre Election polls and they don't poll all the states no IA, SC, KY or MO polls or OK Sen poll

How are we supposed to know what's going on in SC with Cunningham and McMasters or IA with Grassley Change poll in April had Franken down by 3

[here2view]

GOP with roughly 240 seats

[TDAS04]

Option 1 most likely, but it could be option 2.

[Xing]

Republicans end up with just over 240.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans end up with just over 240.

You haven't seen the latest Senate polls all our incumbentts are safe your R nut map has a 0 probability

R NUT MAPS , NOT

You and Icespear said Bevin was gonna beat Beshear you were wrong

[wesmoorenerd]

I still think the Rs will win with around 230.

[smoltchanov]

235 - 200....

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans with a margin between 2010 and 2014, so between 242 and 247 seats.

[TwinGeeks99]

I still expect the GOP to take the House back, but the margin is going to be a bit diminished compared to expectations due to perceived overreach.

[sg0508]

I'm interested in seeing if there's any trickledown effect from the tops of the ballots where I believe Democrats are going to do very, very well compared to many (Gov/Senate). Could they salvage some of the tossup seats in the House as a result in many of the key states?

[Schiff for Senate]

Option 1

[MarkD]

I'm among that small minority in this poll who thinks the Dems will retain the House, with probably a small net gain of about 2-3 seats. I think anger about the Dobbs decision is going to motivate the D base almost as strongly as it was motivated 4 years ago - like about 85%-90% as motivated as then. I think, perhaps, the NPV will be 51.5% for Dems and 47% for GOP, and the ratio of seats won will be 224 to 211.

[President Johnson]

Republicans with just somewhat less than 235 seats.

[EastwoodS]

Seems pretty obvious the GOP is building a coalition to give themselves at least 250 seats

[It’s so Joever]

GOP will have at least 280 seats.

[Zenobiyl]

GOP will have at least 280 seats.

 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems pretty obvious the GOP is building a coalition to give themselves at least 250 seats

To everyone who throws out these numbers of 250 seats and greater, where exactly are these seats coming from? It's one thing to say it but actually finding a viable path to 250 you really have to make a lot of stretches, all of which happenning at once would be very unlikely.

I would say that by any reasonable person metric's though, it's not "pretty obvious" though may be an extranious possiblity if everything goes the GOP way.

[Devils30]

I am just not buying the divergence between House and Senate outcomes being so insane as some of the models suggest. If Dems really hold  Senate seats in GA, AZ and gain PA, are they really losing Biden +8 suburban/exurban House seats as some models are suggesting? I feel like if Dems  hold Senate, GOP gains are limited below 20 and possibly 15-16.

OTOH, if Dems lose Biden +8 or more House seats, Rs probably take Senate with 52+.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems pretty obvious the GOP is building a coalition to give themselves at least 250 seats

To everyone who throws out these numbers of 250 seats and greater, where exactly are these seats coming from? It's one thing to say it but actually finding a viable path to 250 you really have to make a lot of stretches, all of which happenning at once would be very unlikely.

I would say that by any reasonable person metric's though, it's not "pretty obvious" though may be an extranious possiblity if everything goes the GOP way.

By my count, there are 50+ open or Democratic-held seats rated by at least two projections as toss-up or better for Republicans (45+ in at least three projections). In a wave, the winning party usually wins almost all of those and a handful of surprises. Sweeping the toss-ups with no surprises would put them at 255–260 seats; you can shave off a few for Flores or even Valadao if you like.

If you think a wave is forming, 250 seems like a reasonably conservative estimate. If no wave, probably something more like 230–35.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems pretty obvious the GOP is building a coalition to give themselves at least 250 seats

To everyone who throws out these numbers of 250 seats and greater, where exactly are these seats coming from? It's one thing to say it but actually finding a viable path to 250 you really have to make a lot of stretches, all of which happenning at once would be very unlikely.

I would say that by any reasonable person metric's though, it's not "pretty obvious" though may be an extranious possiblity if everything goes the GOP way.

By my count, there are 50+ open or Democratic-held seats rated by at least two projections as toss-up or better for Republicans (45+ in at least three projections). In a wave, the winning party usually wins almost all of those and a handful of surprises. Sweeping the toss-ups with no surprises would put them at 255–260 seats; you can shave off a few for Flores or even Valadao if you like.

If you think a wave is forming, 250 seems like a reasonably conservative estimate. If no wave, probably something more like 230–35.

According to 538's House model (which isn't perfect but good enough), the GOP winning over 250 House seats is the upper quartile of outcomes. It's not impossible but right now with the data we have, it's hard to argue it's the median outcome which is what I'm saying.

Mind you too, the 270towin consensus list of tossups already includes many high single digit or low double digit Biden seats. Even in 2018 which was considered a very good night for Dems in the House and slightly better than many expected, they lost a handful of tossup races such as MN-01, KS-02, NC-13, KY-06, and FL-15 due to partisanship or general electoral problems in those specific communities that foreshadowed 2020 a bit (FL-15). Also Brian Fritzpatrick is jsut an electoral god. Statistically even on a good night the GOP won't win every tossup and may win a few "Lean D" seats which should cancel out. That's why it'd take a bit of an electoral shock to actually get them above 250 seats though it's not impossible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ds by a margin of 2 or 3 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are Favs, Rs aren't gonna sweep everything just like D's aren't gonna sweep everything , if we lose the H we can win it back in 24, we just can't lose the Senate, we need a check on the Rs and we have the 303 map plus IA, NC, OH and FL as wave insurance, we need to max out our black and brown and female turnout to win 51(/55 Senate seats and win the TRIFECTA it's 50/50 we lose control of both chambers buts not greater than 50 as Rs think it is

Ukraine war has no question put a damper on D's prospects with gas prices whom would of thought the war would last this Long