Non-Incumbents Who Are Guaranteed To Be Members Of Congress Come January 4, 2023

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Sequel to the 'certain to be governor' thread from a couple of months ago. Basically, people who aren't currently Senators or Representatives but will win in November. The only ones I can think of for the Senate are:

Mullin (OK)
Britt (AL)

Although I'm tempted to put Vance and Greitens there as well.

[Roll Roons]

Some for the House, though I may be forgetting a few and some may be debatable:

R:
Dale Strong (AL-05)
Rich McCormick (GA-06)
Mike Collins (GA-10)
Erin Houchin (IN-09)
Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
Max Miller (OH-07)
Russell Fry (SC-07)
Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
Keith Self (TX-03)
Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
Wesley Hunt (TX-38)

D:
Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
Val Hoyle (OR-04)
Andrea Salinas (OR-06)
Summer Lee (PA-12)
Greg Casar (TX-35)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm not sure if Mullin is guaranteed. Most of his primary opposition (with the exception of Holland) were further to the right of him and ideologically aligned more with Shannon. While Mullin is certainly favored, there's definitely a path for a Shannon victory.

[I’m not Stu]

Some for the House, though I may be forgetting a few and some may be debatable:

R:
Dale Strong (AL-05)
Rich McCormick (GA-06)
Mike Collins (GA-10)
Erin Houchin (IN-09)
Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
Max Miller (OH-07)
Russell Fry (SC-07)
Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
Keith Self (TX-03)
Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
Wesley Hunt (TX-38)

D:
Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
Val Hoyle (OR-04)
Andrea Salinas (OR-06)
Summer Lee (PA-12)
Greg Casar (TX-35)

Salinas and Hoyle aren’t guaranteed to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Some for the House, though I may be forgetting a few and some may be debatable:

R:
Dale Strong (AL-05)
Rich McCormick (GA-06)
Mike Collins (GA-10)
Erin Houchin (IN-09)
Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
Max Miller (OH-07)
Russell Fry (SC-07)
Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
Keith Self (TX-03)
Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
Wesley Hunt (TX-38)

D:
Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
Val Hoyle (OR-04)
Andrea Salinas (OR-06)
Summer Lee (PA-12)
Greg Casar (TX-35)

A few you missed

-Mike Ezell
-Robert Garcia
-Rob Menendez
-Harriet Hageman
-Ryan Zinke

[Zenobiyl]

Peter Welch
J.D. Vance

[I’m not Stu]

I think Skarlatos and Erickson win in Oregon, giving the GOP a majority of the state's House seats.

[Meatball Ron]

I think Skarlatos and Erickson win in Oregon, giving the GOP a majority of the state's House seats.

lol no

[Gracile]

Jonathan Jackson (IL-01) and Delia Ramirez (IL-03)

[Tekken_Guy]

Jasmine Crockett. Forgot about her when doing this. Also Kevin Kiley.

[I’m not Stu]

Bruce Poliquin

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bruce Poliquin

Yep, Jared Golden, known for outperforming up-balllot candidates more than anyone, is DOA. Makes sense to me.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Kevin Mullin (California)
Sydney Kamlager
Brittany Pettersen
Anthony Sabatini
John James
Brad Finstad
Marc Molinaro
Bo Hines
Derrick van Orden

[I’m not Stu]

Kevin Mullin (California)
Sydney Kamlager
Brittany Pettersen
Anthony Sabatini
John James
Brad Finstad
Marc Molinaro
Bo Hines
Derrick van Orden

Kamlager and Mullin aren't guaranteed.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kevin Mullin (California)
Sydney Kamlager
Brittany Pettersen
Anthony Sabatini
John James
Brad Finstad
Marc Molinaro
Bo Hines
Derrick van Orden

Sabatini is not guaranteed to win his primary. Pettersen is favored but could lose in a really massive wave.

[Sestak]

Kevin Mullin (California)
Sydney Kamlager
Brittany Pettersen
Anthony Sabatini
John James
Brad Finstad
Marc Molinaro
Bo Hines
Derrick van Orden

Kamlager and Mullin aren't guaranteed.

Mullin is pretty much guaranteed barring scandal, I think.

[riceowl]

Palin?

[riceowl]

Palin?

haha oops

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Palin?

haha oops

It's possible that one reaches 25 recommends.

[coloradocowboi]

Kevin Mullin (California)
Sydney Kamlager
Brittany Pettersen
Anthony Sabatini
John James
Brad Finstad
Marc Molinaro
Bo Hines
Derrick van Orden

Kamlager and Mullin aren't guaranteed.

Mullin is pretty much guaranteed barring scandal, I think.

Without polling it's hard to say. They are both the "establishment" candidates, but I dk if that necessarily means the absolute favorite. As I understand it (and it's kinda sad how little I do, bc I am currently registered to vote in Kamlager's prospective district lol), she is facing a primary more from the right while Mullin's is more from the left. At any rate, I don't think either is guaranteed by definition of that word, and if anybody has any insight into who I should vote for in my upcoming us house of representatives election, please lmk lol

[Tekken_Guy]

These are the ones who are guaranteed

R:
-Katie Britt (AL-SEN)
-Dale Strong (AL-05)
-Rich McCormick (GA-06)
-Mike Collins (GA-10)
-Rudy Yakym (IN-02)
-Erin Houchin (IN-09)
-Eric Schmitt (MO-SEN)
-Mark Alford (MO-04)
-Eric Burlison (MO-07)
-Mike Ezell (MS-04)
-Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
-Nick Langworthy (NY-23)
-Max Miller (OH-07)
-Markwayne Mullin (OK-SEN)
-Josh Brecheen (OK-02)
-Russell Fry (SC-07)
-Andy Ogles (TN-05)
-Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
-Keith Self (TX-03)
-Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
-Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
-Harriet Hageman (WY-AL)

D:
-Robert Garcia (CA-42)
-Maxwell Frost (FL-10)
-Jill Tokuda (HI-02)
-Jonathan Jackson (IL-01)
-Delia Ramirez (IL-03)
-Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
-Glenn Ivey (MD-04)
-Shri Thanedar (MI-13)
-Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
-Rob Menendez (NJ-08)
-Dan Goldman (NY-10)
-Summer Lee (PA-12)
-Jasmine Crockett (TX-30)
-Greg Casar (TX-35)
-Peter Welch (VT-SEN)
-Becca Balint (VT-AL)

For people who are strongly favored but not quite a lock

R:
-Eli Crane (AZ-02)
-Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
-Kevin Kiley (CA-03)
-Aaron Bean (FL-04)
-Cory Mills (FL-07)
-Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13)
-Laurel Lee (FL-15)
-John James (MI-10)
-Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
-Ted Budd (NC-SEN)
-Bo Hines (NC-13)
-Tom Kean, Jr. (NJ-07)
-Nick LaLota (NY-01)
-J.D. Vance (OH-SEN)
-Madison Gesiotto (OH-13)
-Lisa Scheller (PA-07)
-Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)
-Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
-Joe Kent (WA-03)
-Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

D
-Kevin Mullin (CA-15)
-Sydney Kamlager (CA-37)
-Brittany Pettersen (CO-07)
-Jared Moskowitz (FL-23)
-Nikki Budzinski (IL-13)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
-Laura Gillen (NY-04)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06)

[coloradocowboi]

These are the ones who are guaranteed

R:
-Katie Britt (AL-SEN)
-Dale Strong (AL-05)
-Rich McCormick (GA-06)
-Mike Collins (GA-10)
-Rudy Yakym (IN-02)
-Erin Houchin (IN-09)
-Eric Schmitt (MO-SEN)
-Mark Alford (MO-04)
-Eric Burlison (MO-07)
-Mike Ezell (MS-04)
-Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
-Nick Langworthy (NY-23)
-Max Miller (OH-07)
-Markwayne Mullin (OK-SEN)
-Josh Brecheen (OK-02)
-Russell Fry (SC-07)
-Andy Ogles (TN-05)
-Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
-Keith Self (TX-03)
-Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
-Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
-Harriet Hageman (WY-AL)

D:
-Robert Garcia (CA-42)
-Maxwell Frost (FL-10)
-Jill Tokuda (HI-02)
-Jonathan Jackson (IL-01)
-Delia Ramirez (IL-03)
-Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
-Glenn Ivey (MD-04)
-Shri Thanedar (MI-13)
-Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
-Rob Menendez (NJ-08)
-Dan Goldman (NY-10)
-Summer Lee (PA-12)
-Jasmine Crockett (TX-30)
-Greg Casar (TX-35)
-Peter Welch (VT-SEN)
-Becca Balint (VT-AL)

For people who are strongly favored but not quite a lock

R:
-Eli Crane (AZ-02)
-Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
-Kevin Kiley (CA-03)
-Aaron Bean (FL-04)
-Cory Mills (FL-07)
-Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13)
-Laurel Lee (FL-15)
-John James (MI-10)
-Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
-Ted Budd (NC-SEN)
-Bo Hines (NC-13)
-Tom Kean, Jr. (NJ-07)
-Nick LaLota (NY-01)
-J.D. Vance (OH-SEN)
-Madison Gesiotto (OH-13)
-Lisa Scheller (PA-07)
-Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)
-Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
-Joe Kent (WA-03)
-Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

D
-Kevin Mullin (CA-15)
-Sydney Kamlager (CA-37)
-Brittany Pettersen (CO-07)
-Jared Moskowitz (FL-23)
-Nikki Budzinski (IL-13)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
-Laura Gillen (NY-04)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06)

Pretty good! Personally, I would move Max Miller to the favored but not certain section, and probably remove Hines, Vance, and Mullin because they are too vulnerable. Maybe move Nick LaLota and Anna Paulina Luna to safe too, but I rly dk those districts

[Roll Roons]

These are the ones who are guaranteed

R:
-Katie Britt (AL-SEN)
-Dale Strong (AL-05)
-Rich McCormick (GA-06)
-Mike Collins (GA-10)
-Rudy Yakym (IN-02)
-Erin Houchin (IN-09)
-Eric Schmitt (MO-SEN)
-Mark Alford (MO-04)
-Eric Burlison (MO-07)
-Mike Ezell (MS-04)
-Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
-Nick Langworthy (NY-23)
-Max Miller (OH-07)
-Markwayne Mullin (OK-SEN)
-Josh Brecheen (OK-02)
-Russell Fry (SC-07)
-Andy Ogles (TN-05)
-Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
-Keith Self (TX-03)
-Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
-Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
-Harriet Hageman (WY-AL)

D:
-Robert Garcia (CA-42)
-Maxwell Frost (FL-10)
-Jill Tokuda (HI-02)
-Jonathan Jackson (IL-01)
-Delia Ramirez (IL-03)
-Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
-Glenn Ivey (MD-04)
-Shri Thanedar (MI-13)
-Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
-Rob Menendez (NJ-08)
-Dan Goldman (NY-10)
-Summer Lee (PA-12)
-Jasmine Crockett (TX-30)
-Greg Casar (TX-35)
-Peter Welch (VT-SEN)
-Becca Balint (VT-AL)

For people who are strongly favored but not quite a lock

R:
-Eli Crane (AZ-02)
-Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
-Kevin Kiley (CA-03)
-Aaron Bean (FL-04)
-Cory Mills (FL-07)
-Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13)
-Laurel Lee (FL-15)
-John James (MI-10)
-Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
-Ted Budd (NC-SEN)
-Bo Hines (NC-13)
-Tom Kean, Jr. (NJ-07)
-Nick LaLota (NY-01)
-J.D. Vance (OH-SEN)
-Madison Gesiotto (OH-13)
-Lisa Scheller (PA-07)
-Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)
-Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
-Joe Kent (WA-03)
-Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

D
-Kevin Mullin (CA-15)
-Sydney Kamlager (CA-37)
-Brittany Pettersen (CO-07)
-Jared Moskowitz (FL-23)
-Nikki Budzinski (IL-13)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
-Laura Gillen (NY-04)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06)

Pretty good! Personally, I would move Max Miller to the favored but not certain section, and probably remove Hines, Vance, and Mullin because they are too vulnerable. Maybe move Nick LaLota and Anna Paulina Luna to safe too, but I rly dk those districts

At this point, I think also move Moskowitz and Jeff Jackson to guaranteed.

[wesmoorenerd]

These are the ones who are guaranteed

R:
-Katie Britt (AL-SEN)
-Dale Strong (AL-05)
-Rich McCormick (GA-06)
-Mike Collins (GA-10)
-Rudy Yakym (IN-02)
-Erin Houchin (IN-09)
-Eric Schmitt (MO-SEN)
-Mark Alford (MO-04)
-Eric Burlison (MO-07)
-Mike Ezell (MS-04)
-Chuck Edwards (NC-11)
-Nick Langworthy (NY-23)
-Max Miller (OH-07)
-Markwayne Mullin (OK-SEN)
-Josh Brecheen (OK-02)
-Russell Fry (SC-07)
-Andy Ogles (TN-05)
-Nathaniel Moran (TX-01)
-Keith Self (TX-03)
-Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
-Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
-Harriet Hageman (WY-AL)

D:
-Robert Garcia (CA-42)
-Maxwell Frost (FL-10)
-Jill Tokuda (HI-02)
-Jonathan Jackson (IL-01)
-Delia Ramirez (IL-03)
-Morgan McGarvey (KY-03)
-Glenn Ivey (MD-04)
-Shri Thanedar (MI-13)
-Valerie Foushee (NC-04)
-Rob Menendez (NJ-08)
-Dan Goldman (NY-10)
-Summer Lee (PA-12)
-Jasmine Crockett (TX-30)
-Greg Casar (TX-35)
-Peter Welch (VT-SEN)
-Becca Balint (VT-AL)

For people who are strongly favored but not quite a lock

R:
-Eli Crane (AZ-02)
-Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
-Kevin Kiley (CA-03)
-Aaron Bean (FL-04)
-Cory Mills (FL-07)
-Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13)
-Laurel Lee (FL-15)
-John James (MI-10)
-Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
-Ted Budd (NC-SEN)
-Bo Hines (NC-13)
-Tom Kean, Jr. (NJ-07)
-Nick LaLota (NY-01)
-J.D. Vance (OH-SEN)
-Madison Gesiotto (OH-13)
-Lisa Scheller (PA-07)
-Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)
-Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
-Joe Kent (WA-03)
-Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

D
-Kevin Mullin (CA-15)
-Sydney Kamlager (CA-37)
-Brittany Pettersen (CO-07)
-Jared Moskowitz (FL-23)
-Nikki Budzinski (IL-13)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14)
-Laura Gillen (NY-04)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06)

tbh all the bolded ones are in tossup races at this point

[GALeftist]

Where did all the hype about Madison Gesiotto come from? Everyone seems to think she's a lock. Don't really get it. Sykes is a strong candidate in a Biden seat, she at least has a shot!