If you only saw results from MI (prez+sen.), what would have been your prediction?

[Sir Mohamed]

If you only saw the results for prez and senate from MI a few weeks before the election, what would have been your guess how the entire election turned out? MI was always seen as the easiest Dem pickup from 2016 and Biden most of time was ahead in the polls outside the MoE. While he did end up winning the state by 2.8 pts or 150k votes, it ended up closer than expected.






Tbh, this would have been my result map:



✓ President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 289 EVs.; 47.8%
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 249 EVs.; 50.7%

As for the senate, I would never have expected Dem control. I would have assumed only CO and maybe AZ (very barely) flipped while AL flips R. So Trump reelected, and 52 or 53 R senate, while Dems keep the House with a smaller margin.

[Person Man]

Maybe if this was 2016, I would have assumed Biden was going to lose, but after 2016, seeing the Democrat win Michigan by 3, I would have assumed that the Democrats probably won PA, WI, NC, FL, AZ, and GA as well. Or at least that in NC, AZ, FL, and GA that they were very close but that the Democrat would by at least 2% in the freiwal states.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe if this was 2016, I would have assumed Biden was going to lose, but after 2016, seeing the Democrat win Michigan by 3, I would have assumed that the Democrats probably won PA, WI, NC, FL, AZ, and GA as well. Or at least that in NC, AZ, FL, and GA that they were very close but that the Democrat would by at least 2% in the freiwal states.

Interesting. I always kind of underestimated GOP support in MI before 2016, and even after 2016 to a degree because Obama so handily won that state in 2008 and 2012. For me, MI was almost always as D as SC is R. For sure I now admit that was more wishful thinking than anything else.

[TDAS04]

Pretty close to the actual result.  I would have been fairly confident of a Biden victory.  There was actually a greater difference between MI and PA/WI than I had expected.  Indeed, it was greater than it was in 2016.

[President Johnson]

Since I expected Biden to win Michigan by six or seven points, I would have predicted a tie:

[Schiff for Senate]

Maybe this. The final outcome is in limbo and hinges on WI and is basically a tossup or like Tilt Biden (at best, Lean, closer to Tilt than Likely).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Based on the presidential results, I would have assumed Biden won narrowly by flipping the MI+PA+WI trio that put Trump over the top in 2016, while the rest of the map stayed the same.

[Pericles]

Based on the presidential results, I would have assumed Biden won narrowly by flipping the MI+PA+WI trio that put Trump over the top in 2016, while the rest of the map stayed the same.

This, except NE-02 was also clearly going to flip.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Based on the presidential results, I would have assumed Biden won narrowly by flipping the MI+PA+WI trio that put Trump over the top in 2016, while the rest of the map stayed the same.

This, except NE-02 was also clearly going to flip.

Yes, I probably would think NE-02 would flip too, it slipped past my mind. Sorry Omaha residents

[sg0508]

I wouldn't be able to tell.  Most pundits expected MI to tilt back to the Democrats in 2020. The margin also was not convincing enough to lead me to think Biden necessarily won.

Most pundits (myself included) expected WI to be "the state". That's the result I would have wanted to see.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I would've guessed R's held the senate but Biden won the presidency

[Skill and Chance]

I'd predict Biden won NE-02 and AZ, but I'd predict Trump in PA and WI.  GA wouldn't even be on the radar.  Also would never have expected the large Biden margins in NH and ME with MI only at Biden +2.7.

[bagelman]

something like this

[GregTheGreat657]

[lividnyx]

Far out from the election (two party popular vote):



Election day:

[BG-NY]

I predicted MI could be the tipping point so I would assume Biden had close to 330 EVs.

I always thought the "2016 MI is a fluke like 2008 NC" was crater-brain tier logic.

[Skill and Chance]

Narrow Trump win.  The margin makes it look like Michigan was Biden's only (statewide) flip from 2016.