What was the reverse Miami-Dade of 2020?

[EJ24]

Was there any county or general region where Trump badly underperformed expectations and it cost him the state?

[Devils30]

Nothing close in terms of raw numbers but would say the loss of margin in Forsyth, Cherokee in GA was pretty important.

[Skill and Chance]

Nothing close in terms of raw numbers but would say the loss of margin in Forsyth, Cherokee in GA was pretty important.

Yes, I would say several counties in the Atlanta area qualify, though interestingly not DeKalb, Clayton or really Fulton either.  Everything one ring further out. 

[bayareabay]

Minnesota was already out of Trump's reach but his loss in Hennepin was especially big.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maricopa County to a degree, though not when we talk about expectations. After 2018, it was already very plausible that Trump could end up losing AZ and with it Maricopa County.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Tarrant County Texas is a good candidate. The SLC area of Utah including Summit County is another one.

[Asta]

Trump netted about 8k fewer votes in WOW counties in 2020 compared to 2016. Since Wisconsin was decided by about 20k votes, losing grounds there played a role.

Kalamazoo county, MI and Chester county, PA, which had about 6% and 8% blue swing, respectively, are decent candidates as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There was really nothing comparable in scale or electoral importance but a few possibilities:

Bend, Oregon

Much of white Johnson County, KS

Colorado Springs, CO

The differsifying ring around Atlanta. GA. There are some collections opf precincts in the South of Atlanta that swung like 30 points left but in large part due to black growth.

Some North Austin and Dallas suburbs, particuarly those with large developments that were built.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It didn't cost him the state since he was never going to win it anyway, but I'd say majority non-Hispanic White, rural Inyo County, CA would be a good candidate for the reverse Miami-Dade of 2020. Yeah, Biden only won it by 14 votes, but it was certainly one of the most surprising results of the night, at least in my opinion. It was the first time since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide election in 1964 that the county went [non-Atlas] blue for President.

I'm still not sure how he managed to win, but it does raise my spirits that hope is not lost for some rural counties that haven't gotten drunk on the Economic Anxiety MAGA Kool Aid from tfg's cult of deplorables.

Shine on, Inyo County! You've come a long way from 2008 when you voted to revoke marriage rights from LGBTQ+ Californians with over 60 percent of the vote.   

[GregTheGreat657]

Oakland County, Michigan

[Pericles]

The Atlanta suburbs obviously, there were some big swings and they even more than Miami-Dade were decisive in a high-profile swing state.

[Mr. Smith]

Cumberland Co., PA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Atlanta suburbs obviously, there were some big swings and they even more than Miami-Dade were decisive in a high-profile swing state.

This is among the top candidates.

[Skill and Chance]

The Atlanta suburbs obviously, there were some big swings and they even more than Miami-Dade were decisive in a high-profile swing state.

This is among the top candidates.

The national Biden swing was just very diffuse outside of Atlanta.  The next closest would be suburban MD and CO from Denver west.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Atlanta suburbs obviously, there were some big swings and they even more than Miami-Dade were decisive in a high-profile swing state.

This is among the top candidates.

The national Biden swing was just very diffuse outside of Atlanta.  The next closest would be suburban MD and CO from Denver west.

Not to mention Collin and Denton counties.

[Gracile]

Rockdale County, GA is similar in that it was one of the only large counties where Trump got fewer raw votes than he did in 2020 (13,014 votes in 2020 vs. 13,478 in 2016) despite being a higher turnout year overall. Inversely, Miami-Dade was notable for being a populous county where Joe Biden got fewer raw votes than Hillary Clinton (617,864 vs. 624,146).

Rockdale also had a reasonably large swing that netted Biden about 8,000 votes - which while not that large, is close to the statewide raw vote victory margin. So while significant raw vote shifts in the Atlanta metro aided in flipping the state, Rockdale was probably the single county that played the same role as Miami-Dade in this competitive state.

[MATTROSE94]

Monmouth County in New Jersey
The WOW counties in Wisconsin
Forsyth and Cherokee counties in Georgia

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Northern Wisconsin, particularly Ashland County which demographically should have been ripe for his taking. I think that Trump’s failure to really expand on his gains with WWC midwesterners is a big part of why he lost.

[MargieCat]

Maybe Cobb and Gwinnett counties.