Change Research (D) NH, GA, NV, AZ polls.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1542625162088120321

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Biden 36% Approval that IPSOS has him and Act blue has Demings tied 46/48

Rs haven't lead in a single AZ poll some think on the compiled map it's safe R

[SnowLabrador]

D internals. Seems overly optimistic for Democrats.

[Gracile]

The vote share percentages for each Democratic candidate are in line with my expectation for how each state will vote in relation to another from most Democratic to most Republican (NH > GA > AZ > NV).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt isn't winning sorry MT Treasure

[wbrocks67]

Seems about right in the sense that Hassan is probably in the best position, followed by Kelly (Masters is a disaster clearly), while it's going to be tight for Warnock but he has the edge right now, while CCM is the most vulnerable out of the bunch, also because Laxalt is the most 'normal' of the bunch (though with anti-choice baggage)

Also of note that Hassan, Warnock, Kelly are close to 50, while CCM a bit behind at 46.

[Xing]

All of these seem very generous to Democrats, though the biggest outlier is definitely AZ (NH is also quite hard to buy.)

[Politician]

Masters obviously won't lose by 8 (no matter how "weak" a candidate he is) and I doubt even Bloduc would lose by 9. Otherwise, seem reasonable for a D internal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of these seem very generous to Democrats, though the biggest outlier is definitely AZ (NH is also quite hard to buy.)

It's not an outlier just because your candidate is losing, I can say TX is an outlier because QU has it 5 not 10

Obviously, Abbott won't win by 10 Biden lost TX by 6

[wbrocks67]

I mean of note here is that their own polling showed Ds in a worse spot earlier in the year

This reflects a swing from March when Sen. Kelly trailed a generic Republican 46% to 43%.

This reflects a swing from March when Warnock trailed Walker 49% to
48%.

This reflects a swing from March when Cortez Masto trailed Laxalt 46% to 44%.

[Lief 🗽]

Cortez Masto looks close to finished. Democrats probably have a better shot in PA and even WI honestly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cortez Masto looks close to finished. Democrats probably have a better shot in PA and even WI honestly.

Lol

[wesmoorenerd]

Cortez Masto looks close to finished. Democrats probably have a better shot in PA and even WI honestly.

incumbent, at 46, up 3, in a difficult to poll, staunchly pro-choice state, and it's not even her campaign's own internal

in what universe does that translate to "close to finished"

[Yoda]

Questions re the AZ repub primary:

How is Masters doing in the primary and how bad of a GE candidate is he?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Questions re the AZ repub primary:

How is Masters doing in the primary

Not much polling on this, the only one I see has him up almost 10 over Brnovich but that's with over 30% undecided.

and how bad of a GE candidate is he?

He said he wanted to privatize social security which is not only an unpopular position but AZ also has quite a lot of retirees that Rs rely on who obviously are not amused at that idea for the most part

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist, Fetterman, Ryan and Mark Kelly are our strongest recruits and Mark Kelly has serve 2 yrs not 5 so Rs targeting him isn't helpful to their cause because he hasn't finished out his 6 yr term

[wbrocks67]

Cortez Masto looks close to finished. Democrats probably have a better shot in PA and even WI honestly.

incumbent, at 46, up 3, in a difficult to poll, staunchly pro-choice state, and it's not even her campaign's own internal

in what universe does that translate to "close to finished"

MTE. People are so overdramatic on this forum.

Is she finished? No. Is she the most vulnerable of the bunch? Probably

[Sir Mohamed]

Press X for doubt.

The NV number may accidently be most accurate, Dems are probably not going to win by the margins provided. That said, Warnock may actually have gained some momentum in recent weeks and is slightly favored. AZ will definitely be much closer, despite the GOP about to nominate a weak candidate.

[Vosem]

Really doubt Bolduc will be the NH nominee; makes more sense to test Morse or Fenton. Otherwise looks fairly reasonable for what's going on right this second.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 is wrong about Rs having a 55% chance with PA it guarenteed a 51/50 S with Harris and weak links in WI, LA Runoff, NC, IA, GA, OH, MO and NC there are 20Rs up and 14Ds

The Rs won't hold all their open seats, guarentee NC, and OH open seats are the most vulnerable