SCOTUS to review "independent state legisilature" theory regarding federal elections next term

[Devils30]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/30/supreme-court-federal-elections-state-legislatures/

I hope all commissions are abolished. Republicans will love the 52-0 map in Cali along with 9-1 in Washington and 7-1 in Colorado. Add what would be possible in NJ VA NY MN and I don’t think conservatives will be too excited.

[Devils30]

This would only effect congressional maps if I am correct. Dems could still use state courts to strike down STATE legislative maps. Aka this could happen in PA MI NC WI. Then Dems can win the legislatures from the struck down R state maps and draw their own congressional gerrymanders. The conservatives are eating more than they can chew.

[Devils30]

This would only effect congressional maps if I am correct. Dems could still use state courts to strike down STATE legislative maps. Aka this could happen in PA MI NC WI. Then Dems can win the legislatures from the struck down R state maps and draw their own congressional gerrymanders. The conservatives are eating more than they can chew.

I think this is correct.  State level rules for drawing state legislative districts sufficient to make control of the overall legislature competitive would go a long way toward limiting congressional gerrymandering, if indirectly.

The Supreme Court almost certainly has no jurisdiction over state legislative maps barring a violation of federal law. But what if one party controls the state house and the other the state senate? Or Gov veto? I expect a narrower ruling that gives Rs NC and Ds NY maps back but not much more.

[Devils30]

I am honestly more concerned the GOP could gain so much control over state legislatures that they could eventually convene a Constitutional Convention, where they rewrite the 1st Amendment to state that the US is a Christian nation or something like that.

This could lead to a supermajority control of at least 30 state legislatures. They’d need 34 to meet the requirements for a Constitutional Convention

Amendments proposed during a Constitutional Convention must also be ratified by three-fourths of the states.

[Devils30]

In the immediate aspect of this case Democrats actually have a lot more to gain since they have so many more large states that vote heavily in their favor.  States like California, New York, New Jersey, and Maryland all would be empowered to draw extreme D gerrymanders without any oversight.  

Republicans are limited because all their large states vote more 50/50 like Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Arizona.   There's only so much gerrymandering they can do when the votes simply aren't all there.

Will Democrats be willing to aggressively gerrymander though? Or will they yet again chicken out in the name of "bipartisanship"?

Oh you had better believe they would do that. They’ll likely be able to maneuver themselves into eternal control of the House in this instance. The GOP is taking a fly swatter to a hornet’s nest with this one.

If (when?) Texas’s legislature flips they will be beyond screwed

Don’t forget Georgia after 2030. Could end up with Dems able to create 228-230 districts 3-5% more Dem than the national popular vote in the next redistricting cycle.