Who are plausible Biden nominees post KBJ?

[Skill and Chance]

Some younger, solidly liberal choices would include:  Michelle Friedland, Alison Nathan, Candance Jackson-Akiwumi, Tamika Montgomery-Reeves, Kristen Clarke, Maite Oronoz Rodriguez, and Eunice Lee.

I still like the idea of Doug Jones as a compromise nominee to replace Thomas or another conservative justice if there's a vacancy before 2025. 

If there's a chance for Biden to elevate an existing justice to the Chief position, he'd go with Kagan. 

If there is somehow a deal with a Republican senate to replace a conservative justice, it would likely be someone who is known to be pro-life but also believes in broad federal power over economic issues Democrats care about.  Note that JBE (LA-GOV who signed a state abortion ban, but also did Medicaid expansion and gay rights by executive order) is a lawyer.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think there will be another Supreme Court during Biden's presidency, at least this term.

Sotomayor and Kagan were both just appointed by Obama, and relatively young.

Maybe somebody will say Robert could retire under a Biden 2nd term, but I really really doubt that.

Any other opening would be an unexpected death.

Sotomayor's health isn't great; she's diabetic, and COVID-skittish to a point that some say smacks of hypochondria. An early retirement is not out of the question, although we obviouslyshouldn't bank on it either.

If Sotomayor felt very sick, she would presumably have retired this summer. 

[Skill and Chance]

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   

[Skill and Chance]

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   

Fair enough, at least should he have to replace Kegan or Sotomayor.

Unfortunately, I doubt Biden will get another appointment in this presidential term. Maybe during the next, which would require the Democrats to keep the senate until at least to the 2026 midterms. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

The 2024 map is basically impossible.  The most plausible scenario where Democrats get to fill more SCOTUS seats without Republicans having a chance to in between would be to win narrowly in 2024 with a new candidate and then that incumbent is reelected in a blowout in 2028, finally flipping the senate back.  The 2022-28 map is the most favorable for Dems.  The 2024 map is basically impossible.

They could also reasonably flip the Senate back in a GOP midterm in 2026, but that implies 2 years of Republican control of the confirmation process first. 

[Skill and Chance]

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   

Fair enough, at least should he have to replace Kegan or Sotomayor.

Unfortunately, I doubt Biden will get another appointment in this presidential term. Maybe during the next, which would require the Democrats to keep the senate until at least to the 2026 midterms. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

The 2024 map is basically impossible.  The most plausible scenario where Democrats get to fill more SCOTUS seats without Republicans having a chance to in between would be to win narrowly in 2024 with a new candidate and then that incumbent is reelected in a blowout in 2028, finally flipping the senate back.  The 2022-28 map is the most favorable for Dems.  The 2024 map is basically impossible.

They could also reasonably flip the Senate back in a GOP midterm in 2026, but that implies 2 years of Republican control of the confirmation process first. 

I wouldn't be so sure that the Democrats are doomed in the Senate this year. 2018 showed that the President's party can gain in the Senate even in a midterm that's terrible otherwise if there's something going on in the culture war that especially implicates the Senate and the map is favorable. Add that to the GOP having similar, uh, candidate quality issues this year to the infamous ones from 2010 and 2012, and I think a lot of us will be surprised by how well the Senate Democrats hold up. That "how well" will still likely not translate to actually holding the majority, but I don't think it's out of the realm of reasonable possibility.

They could hold at 50 this year if they absolutely run the table, but I would say Republicans only getting to 51 is a more realistic upside scenario.   

[Skill and Chance]

The Senate talk a couple posts above admittedly put a smile on my face.

Bumping this!

Hmm, do you have inside knowledge of something we don't know?

I'm pretty sure I've posted my thoughts on this in another topic, but I have a go again. Let's just look at the five most senior Justices should they leave their respective seats. Keep in mind that if another man leaves the Court, there is the potential for the first female majority on the Court. Don't underestimate the significance of that. Overall, this is how I see things should the situation arise:

Thomas: Sri Srinivasan (though he is sadly ageing out), Candace Jackson-Akiwumi, Tamika Montgomery-Reeves, or someone fitting a similar profile.
Roberts: Kagan elevated to CJ, Alison Nathan fills the Kagan seat.
Alito: Anything goes here. Any Circuit Judge or state Supreme Court Judge (50 or under) or SG Prelogar.
Sotomayor: Probably a Latina Circuit Judge, such as Myrna Pérez.
Kagan: Alison Nathan or Elizabeth Prelogar.

A couple thoughts, take it with a grain of salt though, given how wrong I was about the Senate in 2022.

1. There will be a ton of pressure to nominate only women until there are 5 female justices on the court.  This might even carry over to the next Republican president, but it's  an absolute given for a Democratic president.

2. If it's Roberts (the only plausible conservative retirement under a Dem-controlled process IMO), I think Kagan is a lock for CJ. 

3. I don't think Biden would nominate Prelogar.  She would be expected to recuse from a ton of cases that originated from Biden administration actions.  This was also an issue with Kagan early on, though thankfully they had the foresight to exclude her from working on ACA or gay marriage cases for the admin. 

4.  I'm not sure Alison Nathan would get confirmed.  She was barely confirmed to the circuit court in a much more Democratic senate.

5. You forgot about Leondra Krueger.  She's younger than ACB and was a runner up for Breyer's seat.  I also think she would get some Republican votes. 

 

[Skill and Chance]

1. There will be a ton of pressure to nominate only women until there are 5 female justices on the court.  This might even carry over to the next Republican president, but it's  an absolute given for a Democratic president.

2. If it's Roberts (the only plausible conservative retirement under a Dem-controlled process IMO), I think Kagan is a lock for CJ. 

3. I don't think Biden would nominate Prelogar.  She would be expected to recuse from a ton of cases that originated from Biden administration actions.  This was also an issue with Kagan early on, though thankfully they had the foresight to exclude her from working on ACA or gay marriage cases for the admin. 

4.  I'm not sure Alison Nathan would get confirmed.  She was barely confirmed to the circuit court in a much more Democratic senate.

5. You forgot about Leondra Krueger.  She's younger than ACB and was a runner up for Breyer's seat.  I also think she would get some Republican votes.

1. I agree, but it might take a lower priority if it's Thomas's or Alito's seat under President Biden.

2. We are in total agreement on this one.

3. That's a valid point, but she does appear to have extraordinary skills. I'm unsure as to what her future is (at least outside the private sector) considering there won't be an obvious opening on the DC Circuit anytime soon (the one remaining GHWB appointee will likely try to wait out President Biden).

4. She got through with the usual three Republicans in support (Collins, Murkowski, and Graham). With full attendance, she almost certainly would've been confirmed 53-47.

5. Good point. She could certainly be in contention for most potential openings.

BTW do you think at least 50 senators would cooperate in the extreme scenario of a confirmation in Nov-Dec 2024 after Biden has conceded the election?  At this point, I think yes.  Manchin would be the only Dem no.