Who are plausible Biden nominees post KBJ?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 31, 2023, 11:32:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Discussion
  Constitution and Law (Moderator: Command of what? There's no one here.)
  Who are plausible Biden nominees post KBJ?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Who are plausible Biden nominees post KBJ?  (Read 1424 times)
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,119
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 30, 2022, 10:20:02 AM »

Perhaps a bit of wishful thinking after all these awful court decisions, but if Biden gets another appointment, who do you think is likely to be his pick?
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2022, 11:16:54 AM »

Some younger, solidly liberal choices would include:  Michelle Friedland, Alison Nathan, Candance Jackson-Akiwumi, Tamika Montgomery-Reeves, Kristen Clarke, Maite Oronoz Rodriguez, and Eunice Lee.

I still like the idea of Doug Jones as a compromise nominee to replace Thomas or another conservative justice if there's a vacancy before 2025. 

If there's a chance for Biden to elevate an existing justice to the Chief position, he'd go with Kagan. 
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,229
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2022, 02:50:07 PM »

Some younger, solidly liberal choices would include:  Michelle Friedland, Alison Nathan, Candance Jackson-Akiwumi, Tamika Montgomery-Reeves, Kristen Clarke, Maite Oronoz Rodriguez, and Eunice Lee.

I still like the idea of Doug Jones as a compromise nominee to replace Thomas or another conservative justice if there's a vacancy before 2025. 

If there's a chance for Biden to elevate an existing justice to the Chief position, he'd go with Kagan. 

If there is somehow a deal with a Republican senate to replace a conservative justice, it would likely be someone who is known to be pro-life but also believes in broad federal power over economic issues Democrats care about.  Note that JBE (LA-GOV who signed a state abortion ban, but also did Medicaid expansion and gay rights by executive order) is a lawyer.
Logged
Lincoln General Court Member NewYorkExpress
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,646
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2022, 03:15:34 PM »

Kamala Harris if there's open seat in the next two years might actually get through, as putting a Republican Speaker of the House next in line for the Presidency is a clear benefit for Republicans, and having Harris off the ticket in 2024, or unable to run in the event Biden isn't running benefits Democrats.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,670
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2022, 08:46:44 PM »

Leondra Kruger would still be good, & I'd keep my eyes on people like an SG Liz Prelogar or a Veronica Rossman too.
Logged
Blue3
Starwatcher
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,070
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2022, 12:16:40 AM »

I don't think there will be another Supreme Court during Biden's presidency, at least this term.

Sotomayor and Kagan were both just appointed by Obama, and relatively young.

Maybe somebody will say Robert could retire under a Biden 2nd term, but I really really doubt that.

Any other opening would be an unexpected death.
Logged
Command of what? There's no one here.
Nathan
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2022, 02:03:47 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2022, 01:14:01 PM by Supporter and promoter of anti-white racism »

I don't think there will be another Supreme Court during Biden's presidency, at least this term.

Sotomayor and Kagan were both just appointed by Obama, and relatively young.

Maybe somebody will say Robert could retire under a Biden 2nd term, but I really really doubt that.

Any other opening would be an unexpected death.

Sotomayor's health isn't great; she's diabetic, and COVID-skittish to a point that some say smacks of hypochondria. An early retirement is not out of the question, although we obviouslyshouldn't bank on it either.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2022, 12:05:05 PM »

If there's a chance for Biden to elevate an existing justice to the Chief position, he'd go with Kagan.

I agree with that, but it almost seems to be excessively conventional wisdom at this point. But then again, the last Democrat to appoint the Chief Justice was Truman.

Tamika Montgomery-Reeves was just nominated to the 3rd Circuit from the Delaware Supreme Court. I'd been wondering what was taking so long for the DE seat to be filled.

I could definitely see Alison Nathan. Don't underestimate an LGBT nominee for the next vacancy.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2022, 12:17:03 PM »

If there's a chance for Biden to elevate an existing justice to the Chief position, he'd go with Kagan.
I could definitely see Alison Nathan. Don't underestimate an LGBT nominee for the next vacancy.

Nathan also worked in the Obama White House and was elevated by Biden to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals just last year
Logged
Utah Neolib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,663
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2022, 02:06:06 PM »

David Garcia - hes been nominated to the DC circuit, and even in 15 years hed be younger than KBJ.
Michelle Childs is still an option, though I think shes more likely if a Republican senate is in power at the time.
Goodwin Liu is a current Justice on the California Supreme Court, and he could be the first Asian-American justice.
Logged
Blue3
Starwatcher
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,070
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2022, 09:06:20 PM »

I don't think there will be another Supreme Court during Biden's presidency, at least this term.

Sotomayor and Kagan were both just appointed by Obama, and relatively young.

Maybe somebody will say Robert could retire under a Biden 2nd term, but I really really doubt that.

Any other opening would be an unexpected death.

Sotomayor's health isn't great; she's diabetic, and COVID-skittish to a point that some say smacks of hypochondria. An early retirement is not out of the question, although we obviously shouldn't bank on it either.
Diabetes isn't a death sentence, many Americans have it and it can be very manageable. And the pandemic is winding down.

If there's a chance for Biden to elevate an existing justice to the Chief position, he'd go with Kagan.

I agree with that, but it almost seems to be excessively conventional wisdom at this point. But then again, the last Democrat to appoint the Chief Justice was Truman.

Tamika Montgomery-Reeves was just nominated to the 3rd Circuit from the Delaware Supreme Court. I'd been wondering what was taking so long for the DE seat to be filled.

I could definitely see Alison Nathan. Don't underestimate an LGBT nominee for the next vacancy.

Is there any true difference in power between Chief Justice and Associate Justice, besides some ceremonial duties?
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 78,593
Jamaica
P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2022, 01:00:18 PM »

Alito and Thomas aren't dying but if we have a 3T D administration it's Child followed by Kruger or Crt pack won't be 13 it will be 11 with Child's and Kruger but by then Child's might be too old
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2022, 07:30:23 AM »

Is there any true difference in power between Chief Justice and Associate Justice, besides some ceremonial duties?

Traditionally, it's just soft power and prestige for the most part. Obviously, there's the fact that the Chief Justice is always the most senior Justice, which includes assigning the majority opinion when in the majority. Chief Justice Burger would supposedly sometimes change his vote to keep control of that power. A lot does depend on the composition of the Court and the abilities of the particular Chief Justice though. You'd definitely rather be Chief than not though.

There are also quite a few administrative duties, not just within the Supreme Court itself, but also as head of the federal judiciary.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 78,593
Jamaica
P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2022, 07:30:36 PM »

Biden is against Crt packing and if Congress passed DC Statehood or Voting Rights they said that they are gonna attempt to limit Judicial Review of the Justices it's unlikely Biden will get another nominee Alito and Thomas are healthy and will live til 2036 the end of Gavin Newsom administration
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,229
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2022, 04:12:26 PM »

I don't think there will be another Supreme Court during Biden's presidency, at least this term.

Sotomayor and Kagan were both just appointed by Obama, and relatively young.

Maybe somebody will say Robert could retire under a Biden 2nd term, but I really really doubt that.

Any other opening would be an unexpected death.

Sotomayor's health isn't great; she's diabetic, and COVID-skittish to a point that some say smacks of hypochondria. An early retirement is not out of the question, although we obviouslyshouldn't bank on it either.

If Sotomayor felt very sick, she would presumably have retired this summer. 
Logged
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,089
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2022, 05:20:08 PM »

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.
Logged
Command of what? There's no one here.
Nathan
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2022, 05:59:39 PM »

I don't think there will be another Supreme Court during Biden's presidency, at least this term.

Sotomayor and Kagan were both just appointed by Obama, and relatively young.

Maybe somebody will say Robert could retire under a Biden 2nd term, but I really really doubt that.

Any other opening would be an unexpected death.

Sotomayor's health isn't great; she's diabetic, and COVID-skittish to a point that some say smacks of hypochondria. An early retirement is not out of the question, although we obviously shouldn't bank on it either.
Diabetes isn't a death sentence, many Americans have it and it can be very manageable. And the pandemic is winding down.

Of course it's not a death sentence, but people in high-stress jobs have retired over far less.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2022, 07:51:32 PM »

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

You can remove "hopefully" and it would be a statement of fact.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,427
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2022, 11:36:58 AM »

Particularly if not in the final year of Biden's term, I don't agree with the Fuzzy v. Polilefty Manichean divide that a Pub Senate means no Biden nominee confirmations if a vacancy occurs. It depends on the cause of the vacancy, the size of the Pub majority, and who is nominated. Biden will be consulting with Collins and Murkowski, and maybe Mittens on that one.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,339
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2022, 01:39:09 PM »

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,229
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2022, 01:57:24 PM »

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   
Logged
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,089
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2022, 02:01:34 PM »

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I don't think they need me to put that idea into their heads.  I expect that to happen.

Not until FDR were SCOTUS nomination the big deal they are now.  Not until 1968 were they major campaign issues.   The reason is simple; the Left in America has counted on the Court to legislate from the Bench what lacked popular support and support in the Congress.  The Left hasn't been alone in this (Citizens United is an example of it going the other way), but it's MOSTLY the Left.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,339
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2022, 02:02:42 PM »

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   

Fair enough, at least should he have to replace Kegan or Sotomayor.

Unfortunately, I doubt Biden will get another appointment in this presidential term. Maybe during the next, which would require the Democrats to keep the senate until at least to the 2026 midterms. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,229
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2022, 03:23:00 PM »

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   

Fair enough, at least should he have to replace Kegan or Sotomayor.

Unfortunately, I doubt Biden will get another appointment in this presidential term. Maybe during the next, which would require the Democrats to keep the senate until at least to the 2026 midterms. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

The 2024 map is basically impossible.  The most plausible scenario where Democrats get to fill more SCOTUS seats without Republicans having a chance to in between would be to win narrowly in 2024 with a new candidate and then that incumbent is reelected in a blowout in 2028, finally flipping the senate back.  The 2022-28 map is the most favorable for Dems.  The 2024 map is basically impossible.

They could also reasonably flip the Senate back in a GOP midterm in 2026, but that implies 2 years of Republican control of the confirmation process first. 
Logged
Command of what? There's no one here.
Nathan
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2022, 07:16:54 PM »

Sri Srinivasan would be a top-contender, I guess. I'm relatively certain it would be a man this time around. If Roberts retired for example, I could also see Biden elevating Sotomayor to Chief Justice and replace her seat with a new appointee.

Hopefully, a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm all Biden nominees.

So a future Democratic senate should also refuse to confirm any of Trump/DeSantis or some other Republicans' nominees?

I think the opposite actually.

1. The optics of appointing a man to a seat formerly held by a woman would be terrible for Biden.

2. If he gets to fill another seat formerly held by a man, it would be the decisive seat to have a majority-female SCOTUS for the first time in history.  There would be huge pressure for Biden to do this.   

Fair enough, at least should he have to replace Kegan or Sotomayor.

Unfortunately, I doubt Biden will get another appointment in this presidential term. Maybe during the next, which would require the Democrats to keep the senate until at least to the 2026 midterms. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

The 2024 map is basically impossible.  The most plausible scenario where Democrats get to fill more SCOTUS seats without Republicans having a chance to in between would be to win narrowly in 2024 with a new candidate and then that incumbent is reelected in a blowout in 2028, finally flipping the senate back.  The 2022-28 map is the most favorable for Dems.  The 2024 map is basically impossible.

They could also reasonably flip the Senate back in a GOP midterm in 2026, but that implies 2 years of Republican control of the confirmation process first. 

I wouldn't be so sure that the Democrats are doomed in the Senate this year. 2018 showed that the President's party can gain in the Senate even in a midterm that's terrible otherwise if there's something going on in the culture war that especially implicates the Senate and the map is favorable. Add that to the GOP having similar, uh, candidate quality issues this year to the infamous ones from 2010 and 2012, and I think a lot of us will be surprised by how well the Senate Democrats hold up. That "how well" will still likely not translate to actually holding the majority, but I don't think it's out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 12 queries.