Election models megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

>The Senate is a toss-up

F**k off, Nate.

It gets worse at the individual level, where they project that Democrats are narrowly ahead in AZ, NV, PA and perhaps GA (in that last state, they show Warnock with a positive margin of victory but have his odds of winning in Republican colours, which could be a formatting error but is more likely a prediction of a Republican victory distorted by potential Warnock NUT maps).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These models are (and should be) mostly based on polls.  And a lot of races have very few polls at this point.  Are people suggesting that 538 should just arbitrarily change their results based on intuition in these case?

Not anymore. 538 needed to adapt and move beyond mere voting intention polls if it wanted to retain credibility. They’d still need to be factored in, but other inputs ought to have grown in significance.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These numbers all seem reasonable to me? Going off polls alone, Democrats DO appear to be favored to retain the Senate but lose the House.

Going off VI polls alone isn't reasonable after 2020.