MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold
WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold
Ok.
IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.
