Election models megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-reasons-for-democrats-to-still-be-concerned-about-the-midterms/

The primary merit of this piece is that it is a revealing description of what is under the 538 hood, and what isn't.

Thanks Nate, but trust me, we're still fretting. No need to twist the knife more.

I've been in a nonstop state of anxiety about the country imploding for seven years now, and it's surprising how little the people who feel that way get acknowledged anywhere in the press.

I think oftentimes those who are genuinely very concerned rub off the wrong way in any sort of medias they do. Yes, we need to be aware of legitimate and serious threats to our democracy, but a lot of these people lack any optimism or hope as to how we can ensure those worst-case scenarios do not happen. Without that key piece, they're likely to be trampeled by the media and public alike cause people generally don't like full on dooming like that.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577735647988965376

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577735647988965376

They're a little too bearish on Democrats in Colorado and a little too bullish in North Carolina and Ohio.

But more or less, not too far from what I would say right now.

It's funny how the Senate looked in jeopardy for Democrats just last week during the alleged Mehmetum and now is basically back to previous expectations, probably even exceeding them too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

Time for another update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (-1)
538 Lite 78 (-3)
538 Classic 75 (-4)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
JHK 67.0 (+2.9)
DDHQ 63.5 (+0.2)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.7 (-2.3)
JHK 72.4 (-3.5)
538 Classic 68 (-3)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
Economist 65 (-3)
538 Lite 60 (+1)

The thing that jumps out to me is that both Senate D and House R chances have generally decreased, i.e. that uncertainty is increasing across the board.

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 79 (+1)
538 Classic 75 (nc)
DDHQ 67.5 (+4.0)
538 Deluxe 67 (-1)
JHK 67.0 (nc)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.4 (-0.3)
JHK 72.3 (-0.1)
538 Classic 69 (+1)
538 Deluxe 69 (+1)
Economist 66 (+1)
538 Lite 61 (+1)

Not much change, except in the DDHQ Senate model.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Update:

AZ D+6.0 (-1.4)
CO D+9.3 (+0.2)
FL R+4.6 (+0.
GA D+3.9 (+1.
NH D+8.0 (+0.5)
NV R+1.4 (+2.1 - flipped)
NC R+0.7 (+0.4)
OH D+1.6 (+1.0)
PA D+6.6 (+0.1)
UT R+7.0 (nc)
WI R+1.9 (+0.9)

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit confused on the NC-SEN model in 538. We keep getting more and more tied polls of the race and yet the model has been drifting away from Beasley. If the race keeps being tied even until Election Day, why is it not moving - towards - Beasley a bit?

It seem NC is the most off from the polling average right now to the 538 forecast (tied in polls but Budd +3 final result)

[Holmes]

I'm a bit confused on the NC-SEN model in 538. We keep getting more and more tied polls of the race and yet the model has been drifting away from Beasley. If the race keeps being tied even until Election Day, why is it not moving - towards - Beasley a bit?

It seem NC is the most off from the polling average right now to the 538 forecast (tied in polls but Budd +3 final result)

Could be that the model thinks Beasley should be pulling ahead in the polls rather than just tying if it expects her to win.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm a bit confused on the NC-SEN model in 538. We keep getting more and more tied polls of the race and yet the model has been drifting away from Beasley. If the race keeps being tied even until Election Day, why is it not moving - towards - Beasley a bit?

It seem NC is the most off from the polling average right now to the 538 forecast (tied in polls but Budd +3 final result)

It could be the specific polls involved; if the polls she is leading in have more of a known Democratic bias than prior polls in the cycle, the model would account for that and show the race getting less competitive. I haven't really gone through the individual polls thoroughly enough to check, but that's the sort of thing that would at least make sense.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm a bit confused on the NC-SEN model in 538. We keep getting more and more tied polls of the race and yet the model has been drifting away from Beasley. If the race keeps being tied even until Election Day, why is it not moving - towards - Beasley a bit?

It seem NC is the most off from the polling average right now to the 538 forecast (tied in polls but Budd +3 final result)

Because for a bit Beasley lead for several polls in a row, plus as the election gets closer uncertainty tends to decrease.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1578195390850924545
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1578196153447088128

[Torie]

Trump and Lindsey Graham are Dem moles. There can be no other explanation.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we know is Rs are favs in the H and Ds in the Senate and Ds can get 52 plus seats in the Senate I don't go by models it's called voting too, our prediction is a prediction maps not a ratings maps and pundits predicted us to net gain H seats and we lost H seats the same can happen with wave insurance Senate especially OH, UT, NC, WI and PA going D, on MSNBC they are predicting upsets OH, NC and UT

SD can be a big upset as well as FL those are wavy R seats but SD replaced IA as a D pickup

[2016]

538 has removed the Center Street PAC Polls from their Model!

Pay no attention what Bonier says.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has removed the Center Street PAC Polls from their Model!

They're still visible on their polling page; go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ and enter "Center Street" in the search box.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 has removed the Center Street PAC Polls from their Model!

Pay no attention what Bonier says.

The pA numbers we're accurate but the OH numbers weren't OZ still isn't gonna win because Fetterman is already at 55 percent and so is Shapiro Fetterman and Shapiro should win 54/46 and Ds are fully invested in WI and NV it's a 303 map anyways

Oz, Shapiro, Bailey, Cox, Masters, Dixon are gonna lose 55/45 percent and Evers would have been the heavy underdog , that's why Barnes has a chance otherwise he wouldn't because Rs didn't nominate Kleefisch, Johnson would be heavy fav not 1 pt ahead if Kleefisch was the Gov nominee and how about that Bailey, Sullivan was a Maverick, Pritzker was nervous about Sullivan or Irvine that's why he ran ads attacking Bailey no one knows Bailey but they know Sullivan

[2016]

Democrats struggling in Oregon-6 and Rhode Island-2 doesn't bode very well for them keeping the House to be quite frank.

If Republicans win either of those Seats the House is gone for the D's.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Democrats struggling in Oregon-6 and Rhode Island-2 doesn't bode very well for them keeping the House to be quite frank.

If Republicans win either of those Seats the House is gone for the D's.

I’m increasingly confident that Russ Feingold is correct and this is an election of the perceived sane republican.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Update:

AZ D+6.0 (-1.4)
CO D+9.3 (+0.2)
FL R+4.6 (+0.
GA D+3.9 (+1.
NH D+8.0 (+0.5)
NV R+1.4 (+2.1 - flipped)
NC R+0.7 (+0.4)
OH D+1.6 (+1.0)
PA D+6.6 (+0.1)
UT R+7.0 (nc)
WI R+1.9 (+0.9)

Another update:

Update:

AZ D+6.7 (+0.7)
CO D+7.9 (+1.4)
FL R+4.6 (nc)
GA D+4.0 (+0.1)
NH D+7.8 (-0.2)
NV R+0.7 (-0.7)
NC R+1.6 (+0.9)
OH D+0.3 (-1.3)
PA D+6.0 (-0.6)
UT R+7.6 (+0.6)
WI R+2.9 (+1.0)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 6):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (+1)
538 Lite 77 (-2)
538 Classic 73 (-2)
DDHQ 66.8 (-0.7)
538 Deluxe 66 (-1)
JHK 66.9 (-0.1)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 75.7 (-1.7)
JHK 73.9 (+1.6)
538 Classic 71 (+2)
538 Deluxe 71 (+2)
Economist 65 (-1)
538 Lite 64 (+3)

A small but noticeable improvement for the Republicans.

[kwabbit]

Dems went from 65 to 67 in 538 Senate and 29 to 30 in the House? Any ideas what caused this? No polling that came out today was divergent enough or high rated enough to cause such a change. Maybe their fundamentals model incorporated some news.

[bilaps]

Going on a limb to say these models are all wrong because they're based on sh**t polling in the most part. Dems will not take the senate, it looks like 50-50 for now with flips being PA and NV. And even that should be taken as a great success for them because I think they'll get clobbered in the House. If I would have to bet I would take the R's to take the senate before D's with PA or GA going Republican way. There is no chance D's could pick up WI, NC or OH in this climate. In this environment it's impossible for Dems to take the senate, there's no need for some fancy election model to tell you that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dems went from 65 to 67 in 538 Senate and 29 to 30 in the House? Any ideas what caused this? No polling that came out today was divergent enough or high rated enough to cause such a change. Maybe their fundamentals model incorporated some news.

When the FiveThirtyEight model has a lack of new polls, they make fundementals up to distract from the fact they've basically had the same margins for like a month and a half.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Dems went from 65 to 67 in 538 Senate and 29 to 30 in the House? Any ideas what caused this? No polling that came out today was divergent enough or high rated enough to cause such a change. Maybe their fundamentals model incorporated some news.

Its showing 66 and 31 right now, so a slightly smaller change in the Senate but bigger chance in the House.

The generic ballot has ticked up a couple tenths for the Dems the past couple days.

Also, the 538 model assumes the environment will get progressively better for Republicans as the election approaches.  So every day that passes with no real change actually improves Dem chances.

This is an aspect of their model that has already proven fundamentally wrong, and yet I don't think they will get much grief for it, because it presumably won't really affect their final prediction.

[TwinGeeks99]

Not that it means much, but if you take the 538 Deluxe model and assign each of the tossups to the party who has the slight lead, Republicans win the House by one seat. Of course, their model has some weirdness (Tilt D TX-15 and AZ-02, Likely R OH-01 and OH-13) but this is just something to note as of the moment.

[Figueira]

Not that it means much, but if you take the 538 Deluxe model and assign each of the tossups to the party who has the slight lead, Republicans win the House by one seat. Of course, their model has some weirdness (Tilt D TX-15 and AZ-02, Likely R OH-01 and OH-13) but this is just something to note as of the moment.

I noticed this as well. If you do this and give 50/50s to Democrats, then Democrats actually win. Of course, I think they have Kiggans slightly favored in VA-2, and it just rounds to 50, but that wasn't true a few minutes ago.