Election models megathread
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hyouzel the predictor
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« Reply #25 on: June 30, 2022, 10:42:16 AM »

538 is a deeply unserious pundit org that has been extremely wrong about the last 3 major elections. There is no scenario where Kelly and Fetterman are favored while the national House PV is R+8! It is impossible!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: June 30, 2022, 10:46:03 AM »

This is a model not ratings and it's not even Labor Day yet it's only the 4th of July hold your horses
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #27 on: June 30, 2022, 11:27:53 AM »

538 is a deeply unserious pundit org that has been extremely wrong about the last 3 major elections. There is no scenario where Kelly and Fetterman are favored while the national House PV is R+8! It is impossible!

to be fair, in the deluxe version, Fetterman and Oz are basically tied. he's only up in the two other models that are more poll/money/etc focused

i don't see how that's impossible though? candidate quality matters.
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Horus
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« Reply #28 on: June 30, 2022, 11:35:02 AM »

Arizona is not safer than Georgia. Wtf is Silver on?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2022, 11:36:54 AM »

Arizona is not safer than Georgia. Wtf is Silver on?

He needs professional help.
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: June 30, 2022, 11:41:15 AM »

As expected, it’s too favorable for Democrats, but pretty much any model that factors in polling is going to have the same problem, and “adjusting” polls by the same amount for each state isn’t going to make the model better, since polling has been much consistently further off (in the same direction) in IA/MO/OH than in CO/NV/TX.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #31 on: June 30, 2022, 11:44:37 AM »

Where's the Bitecofer midterms model?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #32 on: June 30, 2022, 11:45:10 AM »

These models are (and should be) mostly based on polls.  And a lot of races have very few polls at this point.  Are people suggesting that 538 should just arbitrarily change their results based on intuition in these case?
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Kamala’s side hoe
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« Reply #33 on: June 30, 2022, 12:30:08 PM »

> Garcia more favored to win reelection (CA-27) than Steele (CA-45)

Already feel vindicated on some level even if 53/100 isn’t much different from 61/100

The OR-5 projection is pretty ominous for Dems, although it’s based on just one poll that has Chavez-DeRemer +1
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Politician
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« Reply #34 on: June 30, 2022, 12:33:29 PM »

The "lite" version "based solely on polls" is absolutely amazing, please go check it out.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #35 on: June 30, 2022, 12:35:43 PM »

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: June 30, 2022, 12:37:22 PM »

Twitter models project a 230RH a 52/48 D S and 25/25 split in Govs , inverse of 2018 depending on KS and FL and GA and AZ GOVS but of course D's goal is 218 in the H and red Senate seats OH, NC, FL as wave insurance

That's a neutral cycle

But, 230 is 13 away from 217 and if needed we can win back the H in 2024 since we have a fav S map again
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Politician
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« Reply #37 on: June 30, 2022, 12:44:18 PM »

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.
Evers is also a (somewhat) unpopular governor who only won by a point in a D+9 tidal wave. He's obviously more vulnerable than Kotek to anyone who doesn't worship fake "polls".

(Not like Kotek is safe or Evers is DOA)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #38 on: June 30, 2022, 12:47:19 PM »

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.
Evers is also a (somewhat) unpopular governor who only won by a point in a D+9 tidal wave. He's obviously more vulnerable than Kotek to anyone who doesn't worship fake "polls".

(Not like Kotek is safe or Evers is DOA)

Citation?  Evers has had net positive favorability in the last few polls that I recall seeing it in.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: June 30, 2022, 12:50:21 PM »

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.
Evers is also a (somewhat) unpopular governor who only won by a point in a D+9 tidal wave. He's obviously more vulnerable than Kotek to anyone who doesn't worship fake "polls".

(Not like Kotek is safe or Evers is DOA)

Citation?  Evers has had net positive favorability in the last few polls that I recall seeing it in.

MTE. The public polls we've gotten all have Evers at positive fav/approval.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #40 on: June 30, 2022, 01:07:49 PM »

The house forecast is almost funny in some places. How is Valadao less favored than Garcia to win re-election? How is every democrat in Nevada favored? ME-2 actually makes sense though, and so does some other seats. The senate forecast’s odds for winning individual seats are obviously off, but their likelihood of actually winning the senate seems fairly decent for being somewhat early.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #41 on: June 30, 2022, 01:13:28 PM »

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

My hot take is we have a better chance of winning OR than MI for gubernatorial races
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #42 on: June 30, 2022, 01:22:33 PM »

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running.

A polarizing incumbent with very mixed fav/approval numbers, yes. Is a 44Fav/42Unfav spread (in the latest Marquette which showed him leading his R opponents) the kind of split that will make a WI Democrat defy partisanship to the point that it justifies a Lean D rating on a night when (as this model also suggests) Republicans are winning the HPV by six points? Also note that this "model" gives Steve Sisolak a similar 64% chance of winning reelection, and I don’t think there’s anyone on here who would argue that Sisolak is stronger than a generic D or benefits from actual crossover appeal. So what’s the reason for these estimates? As you can probably guess, it’s the fact that Silver's model (and their House forecast confirms this) predictably places way too much weight on "incumbency" (or lack thereof) — this is also why I adduced the Meijer/James races as another ludicrous example (and there are more) illustrating that same pattern.

Quote
OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who.

I’m aware of that independent, but as you noted, it’s very unclear to what extent she will actually hurt Kotek. There’s also very little reason to believe that her current numbers are sustainable given the history of third-party/independent candidates collapsing during GE campaigns and/or underperforming their polling numbers. In fact, there’s a case to be made that the prospect of a Republican governor will eventually scare enough D Johnson supporters into voting for Kotek. Besides, the Democratic base in the Pacific NW has been extremely reliable, and the state has not elected a Republican governor since 1982 (longest-running winning streak for Democrats), whereas Democrats only won WI-GOV 2018/WI-PRES 2020 by a point under extremely favorable conditions.

Quote
She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.

Yes, some "nuance" is certainly warranted (and I agree that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the OR race), but not when it misses the big picture — OR is a solid Democratic state with an extremely high D floor and no recent history of having elected opposite-party governors (unlike KS in 2018) and WI is a state with an extremely high R floor that leans slightly Republican and would elect any halfway competent Republican over a generic Democrat in a R+6 year.

I could understand "Toss-up" for WI and "Lean D" for OR, but not this. On their "Classic" forecast ("What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more"), they even rate WI-GOV "Likely D" (giving Evers a 75% chance of winning), NV-GOV "Lean D" (giving Sisolak a 64% chance of winning) and OR-GOV a "Toss-up" (with each candidate having a 50% chance of winning) — all of this on a R+6 night. There’s nothing rational about this, it’s just absolute nonsense.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #43 on: June 30, 2022, 01:22:47 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2022, 01:29:14 PM by President Johnson »

Actually not that bad for Democrats, especially for governor and senate. However, a 87% winning chance for Whitmer seems pretty high; the modeal also gives her 54.8% of the vote, which is more than she got in 2018. In addition, I also wonder why Pritzker has a 99% winning chance and Hochul just 98%?

Is Connecticut's fifth district actually that much of a tossup? Would be bad to lose Hayes.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #44 on: June 30, 2022, 01:38:04 PM »

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running.

-snip-

Yes 538 has always put too much weight on incumbency, but sometimes it makes them better than the other models, for example they had a better chance than most of Susan Collins winning in Maine in 2020
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2016
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« Reply #45 on: June 30, 2022, 01:41:21 PM »

The 538 House Model if you take Likely & Leaners into Account

Republicans 226
Democrats 195
Toss Up 16

The Model is rougly in line with with Cook Political Report who are projecting Republicans to gain 25-35 House Seats.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #46 on: June 30, 2022, 01:46:43 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2022, 01:59:15 PM by MT Treasurer »

Yes 538 has always put too much weight on incumbency, but sometimes it makes them better than the other models, for example they had a better chance than most of Susan Collins winning in Maine in 2020

I mean, I always had Susan Collins winning in 2020, and I don’t exactly pretend to be a professional electoral analyst or data guru. Tongue In Collins's case, what made me predict a R win was her long history of considerably outperforming her polling average %-ages on election day* in a demographically homogeneous, largely rural, very white state in which polling has tended to overestimate Democrats, even in very bad years for blue state Republicans (at the federal level) like 2008 and 2014. People like Evers and Sisolak obviously don’t have that history.

*2008 (RCP): 55%, election day %: 61%
2014 (RCP): 62%, election day %: 68%
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2016
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« Reply #47 on: June 30, 2022, 02:10:17 PM »

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running.

-snip-
This isn't the Issue. Polls for example particularly this year are still severly underestimating that Indies will go for the Challenger in the end.
Yes 538 has always put too much weight on incumbency, but sometimes it makes them better than the other models, for example they had a better chance than most of Susan Collins winning in Maine in 2020
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #48 on: June 30, 2022, 02:56:30 PM »

These models are (and should be) mostly based on polls.  And a lot of races have very few polls at this point.  Are people suggesting that 538 should just arbitrarily change their results based on intuition in these case?

Not anymore. 538 needed to adapt and move beyond mere voting intention polls if it wanted to retain credibility. They’d still need to be factored in, but other inputs ought to have grown in significance.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #49 on: June 30, 2022, 03:00:43 PM »

These numbers all seem reasonable to me? Going off polls alone, Democrats DO appear to be favored to retain the Senate but lose the House.
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