Rate RI-02nd

[Woody]

Title

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A Boston Globe poll taken just days ago found Fung (R) leading Magaziner (D) 45-39% and up by even more against other Democrats. That was enough for Cook and RCP to move the race to a tossup.

This race is a perfect storm for Republicans and it is nothing short of a tossup.

I've been sounding the alarm on this forum for a while now but it's mainly fallen on deaf ears. This could very well be the OK-05 of 2022.

[wbrocks67]

I would say that due to the lean of the district, Lean D, but Fung is clearly a potent opponent so it's not one Ds should take for granted.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Likely D

[Horus]

Tilt D but this district, if I'm not mistaken, is pretty heavily wwc and Hispanic. Prime upset territory for the GOP.

[Tekken_Guy]

A Boston Globe poll taken just days ago found Fung (R) leading Magaziner (D) 45-39% and up by even more against other Democrats. That was enough for Cook and RCP to move the race to a tossup.

This race is a perfect storm for Republicans and it is nothing short of a tossup.

I've been sounding the alarm on this forum for a while now but it's mainly fallen on deaf ears. This could very well be the OK-05 of 2022.

This is a single poll and could very well be an outlier. Partisanship may ultimately reassert itself, like it did for Lindsey Graham or Steve Daines in 2020 after several underwhelming polls.

Still this is enough for me to move it from Likely D to Lean D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt D but this district, if I'm not mistaken, is pretty heavily wwc and Hispanic. Prime upset territory for the GOP.

It is for the Northeast but by any other standards it's heavily educated and suburban. Also, when we say "heavily" Hispanic that means 12% lol.

The district did swing decently hard right from 2012 to 2016 though but swung back decently in 2020.

Fung will really need to distance himself from the national GOP and could have an upset rental of sorts like Horn, Cunningham, or Rose, who all beat the odds in pretty favourable seats to the GOP, 2 of which had been shifting left.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tilt D but this district, if I'm not mistaken, is pretty heavily wwc and Hispanic. Prime upset territory for the GOP.

It’s too blue to be Tilt D IMO. Fung is a strong candidate but running 14 points ahead of Biden in a federal race may be a bridge too far even for him in 2022. Also this is a federal race so he won’t overperform by nearly as much as he would in a state race.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Factors in Fung's favor, aside from the fact that 2022 is a good environment for Republicans and the seat is an open seat:

-He is the popular former mayor of the largest city located entirely within the district, which normally votes for Democrats
-The large WWC population in the district, as well as the fact that much of the Latino parts of Providence are in the district compared to the whiter, more educated, and more progressive parts of the city in the 1st. This combined with the fact that most of rural RI is in the district creates some strong R trends, although highly educated suburban areas on the coast could offset part of this
-He will coast to the nomination whereas the Democratic field is more splintered
-Magaziner does not live in the district
-Fung has higher name recognition than any Democrat in the race

[Senator Incitatus]

Very funny to see a rating distribution like this where the modal result is also the upper limit. Not a shock; this will be a singular race this cycle.

One thing I'll add is that I don't expect a large systematic polling error here relative to what I expect in other races. Fung will be relying on the sort of voters who do respond to polls. Then again, I said this same thing about New Jersey and was completely wrong.

If we get more polls, this is one place I'll look to see if educated Republican voters are now caught up in the Trump era response-bias problems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's tilt D until we get polling after Labor Day,EDay is really after Labor Day it doesn't end on the 4th of July