Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10
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  Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10  (Read 2563 times)
UncleSam
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« Reply #75 on: June 30, 2022, 02:56:42 AM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
The fact that Quinnipiac is the pollster backing me up is making me regret my predictions lol

Anyway let’s all agree to a bet: if Warnock does 5+ points better than Abrams in November, we all agree Quinnipiac is the new gold standard. If the two races are within 2 of each other or if Walker wins at all, then we agree to ban Quinnipiac polls from this forum.
Judging pollsters based on a single election is dumb.

Hell there are plenty of crap pollsters that get treated like gold on this forum because they deliberately oversample Republicans and last cycle reputable polls undermeasured Republicans.
Can you name one example of what you consider to be a 'crap pollster' that gets treated like gold on this forum? In my experience the only polls that get treated like gold are ones that have performed particularly well lately, regardless of partisan skew.

Also not for anything but polls that undermeasure support among one of the two parties they are trying to measure support for can't really be considered 'reputable'...at best they're just wrong but correct course after being wrong.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #76 on: June 30, 2022, 03:42:20 AM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
The fact that Quinnipiac is the pollster backing me up is making me regret my predictions lol

Anyway let’s all agree to a bet: if Warnock does 5+ points better than Abrams in November, we all agree Quinnipiac is the new gold standard. If the two races are within 2 of each other or if Walker wins at all, then we agree to ban Quinnipiac polls from this forum.
Judging pollsters based on a single election is dumb.

Hell there are plenty of crap pollsters that get treated like gold on this forum because they deliberately oversample Republicans and last cycle reputable polls undermeasured Republicans.
Can you name one example of what you consider to be a 'crap pollster' that gets treated like gold on this forum? In my experience the only polls that get treated like gold are ones that have performed particularly well lately, regardless of partisan skew.

Also not for anything but polls that undermeasure support among one of the two parties they are trying to measure support for can't really be considered 'reputable'...at best they're just wrong but correct course after being wrong.
Trafalgar, who pretty much openly just throws in extra Republicans and doesn’t disclose methodology and everyone on here pretends is a real pollster.

Polling is fundamentally predictive modeling, they are taking a snapshot of a small group of people in a moment in time and using that to extrapolate the larger public and importantly, is predicting how an event that isn’t going to happen for some period of time would happen today. Predictive modeling necessarily includes an error bar. And, it’s important to understand that all elections held a on single day are effectively a single event. Any factors effecting one likely effect all elections that day to some degree. So when you error you are almost always going to error in the same direction, when conditions are unusual multiple pollsters will be wrong in the same direction. What is important is that you have plausible methodology that has been tested for multiple events (notice that most pollsters that aren’t jokes don’t exclusively poll elections) and gets you repeatable results within a reasonable error margin.

A guy that tells you ‘no everyone is wrong, here’s what’s really gonna happen’ and doesn’t show his work is a conman. If he happens to be right once he’s a conman that got lucky.



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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #77 on: June 30, 2022, 08:11:44 AM »

This whole “black voters are pro-life” thing really isn’t true. Pew Research found that 66% of black protestants support abortion, higher than any other religious group. Meanwhile white evangelical protestants are the only group with a majority opposed, and a supermajority at that:

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/#CHAPTER-h-views-on-abortion-2021-a-detailed-look

So I would not conclude at all from that white rural (and mostly evangelical) areas are more pro-choice than black suburban areas, or even close. Abortion really is not the same as certain other social issues when it comes to black voters being more conservative, even the religious ones.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #78 on: June 30, 2022, 08:35:11 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2022, 08:41:50 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Blks and Latins make 30 percent of the population and 100M 30/50 M people on Welfare and Food stamps are minorities and Larry Elder was overwhelmingly rejected by California abd so was Irvine in IL primary, no Pritzker is cruising the reelected and Craig was rejected in MI so every conservative except Walker have been rejected, what happened to Kenneth Blackwell in OH in 2006 he lost by a landslide to Strickland


Walker is a celebrity and Michael Steele has become a defacto D, but he would have been competitive in MD Gov but dropped out so D's can have it, and Hogan didn't run for Senate



30 out of 50 percent of the D vote is black and Brown virtually all of the 45 percent of the R vote are white and Evangelical, GA both the Gov and Sen race will go to a Jan Runoff that's why Ds are targeting IA, MO, LA, OH, NC and FL in case e Barnes or Warnock loses


It's a 3o3 map but it's a 538 nationwide map and we win red states in 2006/08/12/18/19  they're not permanent R
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UncleSam
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« Reply #79 on: June 30, 2022, 10:13:58 AM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
The fact that Quinnipiac is the pollster backing me up is making me regret my predictions lol

Anyway let’s all agree to a bet: if Warnock does 5+ points better than Abrams in November, we all agree Quinnipiac is the new gold standard. If the two races are within 2 of each other or if Walker wins at all, then we agree to ban Quinnipiac polls from this forum.
Judging pollsters based on a single election is dumb.

Hell there are plenty of crap pollsters that get treated like gold on this forum because they deliberately oversample Republicans and last cycle reputable polls undermeasured Republicans.
Can you name one example of what you consider to be a 'crap pollster' that gets treated like gold on this forum? In my experience the only polls that get treated like gold are ones that have performed particularly well lately, regardless of partisan skew.

Also not for anything but polls that undermeasure support among one of the two parties they are trying to measure support for can't really be considered 'reputable'...at best they're just wrong but correct course after being wrong.
Trafalgar, who pretty much openly just throws in extra Republicans and doesn’t disclose methodology and everyone on here pretends is a real pollster.

Polling is fundamentally predictive modeling, they are taking a snapshot of a small group of people in a moment in time and using that to extrapolate the larger public and importantly, is predicting how an event that isn’t going to happen for some period of time would happen today. Predictive modeling necessarily includes an error bar. And, it’s important to understand that all elections held a on single day are effectively a single event. Any factors effecting one likely effect all elections that day to some degree. So when you error you are almost always going to error in the same direction, when conditions are unusual multiple pollsters will be wrong in the same direction. What is important is that you have plausible methodology that has been tested for multiple events (notice that most pollsters that aren’t jokes don’t exclusively poll elections) and gets you repeatable results within a reasonable error margin.

A guy that tells you ‘no everyone is wrong, here’s what’s really gonna happen’ and doesn’t show his work is a conman. If he happens to be right once he’s a conman that got lucky.




So let me just make sure I understand you correctly.

You’re saying that the pollster with arguably the best track record in the Midwest (in polls taken right before elections, at the relevant snapshot in time) is a ‘crap pollster’. Because their methodology tries to take into account conservative voters who show up time and time again but who generally are less likely to respond to polls.

I’ve seen some questionable Trafalgar polls of non-Midwestern states, but they’ve generally been fairly decent even outside the Midwest. In aggregate 538 (hardly a shill for the conservative movement) rates them as an A- pollster.

They’ve been right pretty much since 2016. They’ve explained their methodological differences (‘shown their work’). I’m baffled how you can arrive at the conclusion that you have using any line of reasoning other than ‘their polls are less nice to my preferred party so I don’t like them’.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #80 on: June 30, 2022, 05:09:34 PM »

WARNOCK is at 48/44 anyways
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #81 on: June 30, 2022, 05:54:51 PM »

They also said Biden was leading in FL by 13 pts. in July 2020. Quinnipiac is garbage.

He very well might have been. Let's do some math here.

-Biden was up 2% more in the national average at the time.
-The total polls missed by from the average was 3%
-The total poll was 51-38, which if you slice 5% off of means undecideds broke by a large margin for Trump. Not to mention the last-minute spanish disinformation campaign. If you cut 5% off Warnock's poll, he's still at 49%, which puts him in position to win.

Not to mention, GA Polling has historically been accurate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #82 on: July 02, 2022, 04:17:12 AM »

WARNOCK leads 48/44 means that there will be a Jan Runoff
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #83 on: July 02, 2022, 04:27:09 AM »

Georgia polling being off by this much would be new, it's important to remember that. That's not to say it can't happen, but this poll (even though it's Quinnipiac) shouldn't be discarded the way it should if this was a Florida poll or a Rust Belt poll.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #84 on: July 02, 2022, 12:08:20 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2022, 12:24:57 PM by Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 »

Georgia polling being off by this much would be new, it's important to remember that. That's not to say it can't happen, but this poll (even though it's Quinnipiac) shouldn't be discarded the way it should if this was a Florida poll or a Rust Belt poll.

Even if Warnock wins, which is honestly a bit more likely than not as we speak, I really can't imagine the margin being more than 1.5 or 2 pts. Even then, the poll would be way off (for sure, people care less about polls being off margin-wise as long as they get the winner right). This margin would even be unbelieveable in a 2nd Trump midterm.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #85 on: July 02, 2022, 01:46:36 PM »

Georgia polling being off by this much would be new, it's important to remember that. That's not to say it can't happen, but this poll (even though it's Quinnipiac) shouldn't be discarded the way it should if this was a Florida poll or a Rust Belt poll.

Even if Warnock wins, which is honestly a bit more likely than not as we speak, I really can't imagine the margin being more than 1.5 or 2 pts. Even then, the poll would be way off (for sure, people care less about polls being off margin-wise as long as they get the winner right). This margin would even be unbelieveable in a 2nd Trump midterm.

I think Raphael Warnock could win by high single digits against Walker if Trump was president right now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #86 on: July 02, 2022, 02:23:50 PM »

Georgia polling being off by this much would be new, it's important to remember that. That's not to say it can't happen, but this poll (even though it's Quinnipiac) shouldn't be discarded the way it should if this was a Florida poll or a Rust Belt poll.

Even if Warnock wins, which is honestly a bit more likely than not as we speak, I really can't imagine the margin being more than 1.5 or 2 pts. Even then, the poll would be way off (for sure, people care less about polls being off margin-wise as long as they get the winner right). This margin would even be unbelieveable in a 2nd Trump midterm.

I think Raphael Warnock could win by high single digits against Walker if Trump was president right now.


Warnock is Leading in change poll right now 48/44
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #87 on: July 05, 2022, 01:20:33 PM »


It's almost like you shouldn't take polls 3-4 months out all that serious
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #88 on: July 08, 2022, 02:28:17 PM »

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

It does.

Nationally, his "right-wing disapproval" is around 40% (note the closeness to Trump's essentially permanent approval rating of 43%). Anything above that is disapproval from the left, because he "isn't doing anything." That is to say, it's disapproval of Manchin and Sinema that has been misdirected toward Biden thanks to the stupidity of the American electorate.
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