Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10
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  Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10  (Read 2564 times)
KaiserDave
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« Reply #50 on: June 29, 2022, 03:47:06 PM »

Anyway, Tilt D/Tossup.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #51 on: June 29, 2022, 03:55:04 PM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #52 on: June 29, 2022, 03:55:26 PM »

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

Ding ding ding we have a winner.
Yeah, I'd say I disapprove of Biden because he isn't doing enough, even if a good part of that blame also lays on congress (insert joke about how the opposite of pro is con, so the opposite of progress is congress haha funny)
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Pericles
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« Reply #53 on: June 29, 2022, 04:02:50 PM »

This is most likely a junk poll, but it's a good thing if the junk polls are showing Warnock +10% and not a tied race. Democrats could afford a big polling error in 2020 because they were up by a lot unlike in 2016.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #54 on: June 29, 2022, 04:13:08 PM »

Also worth noting that the polling average did not overerestimate Democrats in GA in 2016, 2018 or 2020, so maybe that’s something worth keeping an eye on. I can’t think of any other remotely competitive state in the country of which this has been true (usually Democrats were overestimated in at least one of those cycles).

Obviously these things can change (the same thing was true of NV/AZ/TX until it wasn’t), but it’s certainly something to consider. It’s also striking that Warnock is at 54% in a poll which has Biden at 60% disapproval.

I don’t think Democrats winning those two runoffs in 2021 was just an outlier because Trump depressed base turnout — that obviously mattered as well, but Republicans are basically on life support in this particular state. Other than CO, I don’t think there’s a state with a more dismal outlook for the GOP.
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« Reply #55 on: June 29, 2022, 04:23:59 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2022, 07:58:50 AM by Primary the Squad »

This feels like an off poll, but a scenario where Kemp wins by five and Warnock wins by five is VERY believable.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #56 on: June 29, 2022, 04:27:09 PM »

This is obviously a major outlier, but I have long felt Georgia was the one competitive state that could buck the wave at the Senate level.

The two relevant factors here are that Georgia is not a state that has been particularly responsive to national trends in either direction and that Walker is a terrible candidate. Both of these would indicate a better performance for Democrats in Georgia than elsewhere.

Something striking about this poll is the enormous number of Warnock/Kemp voters it suggests exist. At this point the main thing that Walker has going for him is that Georgia voters in the recent past have not shown much interest in splitting their ballots; Kemp/Abrams in 2018 was basically generic D against generic R, and the races in 2020 were all very close to each other, suggesting that the vast majority of voters went with the straight ticket. If the difference in senatorial candidate quality is so great that it leads to mass ticket splitting, that will be a big change.
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« Reply #57 on: June 29, 2022, 04:28:28 PM »

This more or less falls in line with my expectation of a narrow Warnock/Kemp victory. Both are incumbents facing really bad opponents; Walker cannot put together a coherent sentence and Abrams lost some goodwill with how she handled her first loss. Even in a state as polarized as Georgia, candidate quality still matters to an extent.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #58 on: June 29, 2022, 04:40:19 PM »

The crazy thing is that this is a Biden 33-60, Kemp-Abrams tie sample.

So it’s not a biased sample. That’s not the same as saying it’s necessarily accurate but wow.
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« Reply #59 on: June 29, 2022, 06:49:21 PM »

Republicans blew 5 Senate seats in 2010/2012. They are trying to outdo themselves this year.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #60 on: June 29, 2022, 06:54:47 PM »

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

I suspect it's not so much "he's not progressive enough" so much as it is "things are bad in the country and I'm going to be mad at Biden until they get better, but also the Republicans are even worse"

This may very well be the case in my view as well. It seems endemic to the thinking of all Americans, unfortunately.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #61 on: June 29, 2022, 07:12:52 PM »

If Warnock holds on in GA, I'd think Dems would be favored to hold the Senate. If Warnock wins by this margin (unlikely), I'd call it a certainty.

I disagree with this — I think Democrats are more likely to lose AZ/NV/PA (and obviously WI) than GA in the Senate. Agree on the second point, though.

I think they'd be likely to flip PA on a night when they're retaining GA, so a loss in AZ would be fine (although obviously not ideal). NV I feel would be a true tossup in this scenario.

Still, the fact that we're considering Democrats holding the Senate at all is a testament to how bad the GOP's swing state recruits have been.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #62 on: June 29, 2022, 07:26:00 PM »

Well, the averages are usually strong in GA, and this poll brings the 538 average to Warnock +0.2 right now, which is extremely believable.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #63 on: June 29, 2022, 07:33:03 PM »

This feels like an off poll, but a scenario where Kemp wins by five and Warnock loses by five is VERY believable.

Did you mean "Walker loses by five"?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #64 on: June 29, 2022, 07:50:58 PM »

Side note: I forget who, but someone said Georgia is not a state where Dobbs is likely to hurt Republicans.  I strongly disagree with that; it’ll hurt in the Atlanta suburbs/greater metro area.  

I somewhat disagree here: I actually think Dobbs (if it in fact helps at all) provides more possibility for an uptick for Democrats in rural areas.

The simple reality is that pro-choice support is higher than Democratic support in most rural (white) areas, while metro support on both fronts is closer in alignment (lots of flux in metro areas, however, because you have sizeable chunks of black voters who are not pro-choice and educated white Rs who are pro-choice).
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Devils30
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« Reply #65 on: June 29, 2022, 08:01:35 PM »

Side note: I forget who, but someone said Georgia is not a state where Dobbs is likely to hurt Republicans.  I strongly disagree with that; it’ll hurt in the Atlanta suburbs/greater metro area.  

I somewhat disagree here: I actually think Dobbs (if it in fact helps at all) provides more possibility for an uptick for Democrats in rural areas.

The simple reality is that pro-choice support is higher than Democratic support in most rural (white) areas, while metro support on both fronts is closer in alignment (lots of flux in metro areas, however, because you have sizeable chunks of black voters who are not pro-choice and educated white Rs who are pro-choice).

Georgia has a lot of pro life blacks who will vote for the Reverend. The north Atlanta suburbs are an awful fit for Walker and don’t forget the GOP is more or less maxed with rural whites here. Gwinnett, Forsyth have trended over 10% D in both 2016-20 and Henry, Cobb, Douglas have had 10% trends along with 6-10% the past two cycles. Even if the Democratic trends slow in these counties it might not be enough for Walker.
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Yoda
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« Reply #66 on: June 29, 2022, 09:36:27 PM »

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

I mean, I'm not crazy about Biden's presidency (not sure how I'd answer a binary question like approve or disapprove b/c it's complicated) but there's no way in hell I'd vote for a republican, especially a trumper. I suspect this is where a large chunk real, normal America is. Inflation could be 50% and gas $20/gallon and I still wouldn't vote for an idiot trumper who has no plan to fix any of it and would just pass a thousand f****** abortion bills for Biden to veto if they got into office.
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Yoda
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« Reply #67 on: June 29, 2022, 09:45:20 PM »

The polling industry, especially Q U is a joke.

Stop being a DOOMER, if we net the H and the S give us DC Statehood

I am called Doomer Dave by many.

CHANGE YOUR USERNAME TO DOOMER DAVE YOU COWARD
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UncleSam
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« Reply #68 on: June 29, 2022, 09:56:09 PM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
The fact that Quinnipiac is the pollster backing me up is making me regret my predictions lol

Anyway let’s all agree to a bet: if Warnock does 5+ points better than Abrams in November, we all agree Quinnipiac is the new gold standard. If the two races are within 2 of each other or if Walker wins at all, then we agree to ban Quinnipiac polls from this forum.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #69 on: June 30, 2022, 12:02:57 AM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
The fact that Quinnipiac is the pollster backing me up is making me regret my predictions lol

Anyway let’s all agree to a bet: if Warnock does 5+ points better than Abrams in November, we all agree Quinnipiac is the new gold standard. If the two races are within 2 of each other or if Walker wins at all, then we agree to ban Quinnipiac polls from this forum.
Judging pollsters based on a single election is dumb.

Hell there are plenty of crap pollsters that get treated like gold on this forum because they deliberately oversample Republicans and last cycle reputable polls undermeasured Republicans.
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Sbane
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« Reply #70 on: June 30, 2022, 12:16:29 AM »

UncleSam made a bold prediction a month or two ago that Abrams would do at least 10 points worse than Warnock. Prophetic?
The fact that Quinnipiac is the pollster backing me up is making me regret my predictions lol

Anyway let’s all agree to a bet: if Warnock does 5+ points better than Abrams in November, we all agree Quinnipiac is the new gold standard. If the two races are within 2 of each other or if Walker wins at all, then we agree to ban Quinnipiac polls from this forum.

The SUSA poll confirms such a split between Warnock and Abrams so its not just Quinnipiac. We will see if that holds.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #71 on: June 30, 2022, 12:30:29 AM »

I don't trust Quinnipiac so I'm not standing by this result, but I do want to say that you should expect Democrats to dramatically outrun Biden's approval because most polls are showing Biden with 25% support in his own primary. Those are Democratic presidential primary voters, who are certainly not going to be voting for Republicans.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #72 on: June 30, 2022, 12:33:13 AM »

I don't trust Quinnipiac so I'm not standing by this result, but I do want to say that you should expect Democrats to dramatically outrun Biden's approval because most polls are showing Biden with 25% support in his own primary. Those are Democratic presidential primary voters, who are certainly not going to be voting for Republicans.
Lesser-evils voting is dominant in American politics and has been for a long, long time.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #73 on: June 30, 2022, 01:57:36 AM »

They also said Biden was leading in FL by 13 pts. in July 2020. Quinnipiac is garbage.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #74 on: June 30, 2022, 02:01:15 AM »

They also said Biden was leading in FL by 13 pts. in July 2020. Quinnipiac is garbage.
..

It's a RV poll not LV poll but Kemp is not gonna absolutely win and Warnock has lead in almost all Polls
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