Rate CO-SEN (Bennet vs O'Dea)

[Utah Neolib]

Likely D, about 5 point victory for Bennet in the end. O’Dea is certainly better than Hanks as a rep Publix an candidate, but is that enough to win? It’s not, and the Denver suburbs aren’t exactly trending Republican.

[lfromnj]

Moderate doesn't necessarily mean a good candidate, that annoying gay guy in CO-03 may have been a moderate but he would get btfo.

[Senator Incitatus]

Still Likely D but much closer to Lean than Safe.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm amending my prediction from safe D to likely D. O'Dea is possibly the first candidate the GOP nominated in a Democratic state that actually resembles the state they are running in. He seems like a genuine moderate, if not pretty close to a liberal, and I would gladly have had him over Gardner back in 2014, or in any Senate seat held by a Republican at all actually. But he would still caucus with the GOP in the end should he win (unless he'd end up deciding to become an Independent and caucus with the Democrats instead for whatever reason).

So if the Bennet campaign were smart all they would likely need to do to have this race in the bag is reminding the electorate that O'Dea gives McConnell a number in the Senate and makes it all the likelier that he becomes Majority Leader again. Of course, in reality, if Democrats lose here they already lost in the big four and New Hampshire, so McConnell would be Majority Leader anyway.

I can't say I'm all that worried about this race overall though. I expect a high single digit Bennet win. Probably well below Polis' victory, but still an easy enough win under the circumstances.

[Xing]

Likely D. Might be somewhat close, but it’s hard to see it actually flipping.

[Sbane]

Lmao, you people are really going all in on this "pre-/post-Dobbs" thing as your last anchor, huh?

Likely D "before Dobbs" and Likely D "after Dobbs."

It actually does matter, especially in races that are likely to be close. Sure, it may not be worth more than a few points but increased turnout from the left will happen due to this decision. Also moderate, upper middle class women who might have considered voting Republican due to the economy likely won't do so anymore. I will readily admit this is a fairly small slice of the electorate, but overrepresented in places like Colorado or multiple house seats in suburbs across the country. Might even be decisive in Georgia where the Republicans really rely on the white suburban vote to get across the line.

[President Johnson]

Likely Democratic.

Bennet should win by a margin between six and eight points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Democratic.

Bennet should win by a margin between six and eight points.

, he will win  by 5

[bagelman]

Safe D. CO is in the company of IL, NY, NJ, etc.

[Suburban Republican]

Lean D, Bennett wins by about 5. O’dea is certainly a better candidate than Hanks and Michael Bennett is in no way inspiring but Colorado is too far gone for republicans at this point (at least, for national races).

[Miked0920]

Id say Likely D, A weak Likely Democratic rating closer to Lean than safe. O'Dea is a strong candidate and Bennet is not the strongest incumbent, but Colorado is still a fairly democratic state and is significantly Bluer than 2014 by Comparison when Cory Gardner unseated Mark Udall. In addition Jared Polis is personally popular and could help Bennet atop the ticket, even in the most likely event that Bennet underperforms the Governor. I think Bennet wins by 2-5 Points and has around a 84%-85% percent chance of winning as of now

[Chips]

Likely D maybe? I do think there's a window for O'Dea to pull off the upset but given Colorado's strong Democratic lean it's just hard for any Republican to do it, even in a leaning GOP environment. If O'Dea wins here, you know the Democrats are likely having a pretty brutal night nationwide.

[Chips]

Likely D. Might be somewhat close, but it’s hard to see it actually flipping.

Pretty much this. Bennet being held to a 3-4 point margin wouldn't be terribly shocking but O'Dea getting the last few points he needs is definitely a bit more of a stretch. I currently put the odds at 85-15 or so right now.

[nerd73]

Likely D. Probably Bennet by 3-5. Like many others have said, in an R+4 to R+5 environment (which is about what I expect) it'll be easy for O'Dea to make it close, but it won't be easy for him to actually win.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think Tilt D.

why?

Nobody should take Pieman’s wishcasting seriously. I seem to recall him saying Perdue could beat Kemp, and that Raffensperger would probably or certainly lose.

[Schiff for Senate]

Safe D, although there is like a 1/3 chance that O’Dea keeps it to a mid-single digit loss.  However, even that seems doubtful post-Dobbs.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hot take: Tim Ryan has a better chance of actually winning than O’Dea does although both will lose and the margin in Colorado may well be smaller than in Ohio