CA congressional primary results by party in competitive seats.

[Minnesota Mike]

The top 2 primary system has its flaws but it does give us the best "poll" we a likely to get in a lot of these districts. Historically margins tend to move a little bit left in November overall but it does vary by district. With almost all the vote in here is the party vote and my rankings for the competitive seats. Any race not listed I think will be safe for the obvious party. I did move CA-40 and CA-45 to Safe R from likely R due to poor Democratic primary results.

CA-09: Dem +2.7%, Lean D
CA-13: Rep +3.7%, Tossup
CA-22: Rep +9.3%. Lean R
CA-27: Rep +0.7%, Lean D
CA-41: Rep+6.7%, Likely R
CA-47: Dem+3.4%, Likely D
CA-49: Dem +2.9%, Lean D

Overall I think we will have a small swing to the left (why I have CA 27 lean D) with bigger swings in the northern CA Hispanic heavy districts. Overall pretty much status quo, Democrats lost a safe district in redistricting but may be able to gain it back if they can flip CA-27 and hold their other current seats. Probably not good enough since if they want any chance to hold the House they needed to gain seats in CA.

[I’m not Stu]

Orange County turnout was under 40%. Will there be a surge in turnout?

[wesmoorenerd]

Orange County turnout was under 40%. Will there be a surge in turnout?

Could be the X factor Mahmood and Chen would need to pull off an upset if so

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Orange County turnout was under 40%. Will there be a surge in turnout?

Could be the X factor Mahmood and Chen would need to pull off an upset if so

I think Chen has a better chance of victory from people deciding later.

[Senator Incitatus]

Might also be worth noting what the top two candidates in the first round got, to get a sense of how much they'll need to consolidate their base in the general:

CA-09: Harder* (D) 37.8% — Patti (R) 28.6%
CA-13: Duarte (R) 34.3% — Gray (D) 31.0%
CA-22: Salas (D) 45.4% — Valadao* (R) 25.6%
CA-27: Garcia* (R) 47.1% — Smith (D) 37.4%
CA-41: Calvert* (R) 48.2% — Rollins (D) 30.5%
CA-47: Porter* (D) 51.7% — Baugh (R) 30.9%
CA-49: Levin* (D) 48.9% — Maryott (R) 19.0%

This is part of the reason I'd put CA-27 at Lean R and would consider moving CA-22 to TU, though the massive partisan differential (close to Brownley on the other side) makes that difficult. I also might put Levin at Likely D.

Since I'm on this line of thinking, three other incumbents (McClintock, Costa and Correa) got only plurality wins due to intra-party opposition, though I don't see them as vulnerable.

The Democratic-Democratic matchups, for anyone wondering:

CA-15: Mullin 41.1% — Canepa 24.1%
CA-16: Eshoo* 47.9% — Kumar 15.6%
CA-29: Cardenas* 56.7% — Dueñas 22.8%
CA-30: Schiff* 62.5% — Pudlo/Girl 12.8%
CA-34: Gomez* 50.7% — Kim 39.1%
CA-37: Kamlager 43.7% — Perry 18.4%

[Minnesota Mike]

Just looking back on the House CA results since they went to Top 2 in 2012 and I could not find a single case of Democrats getting the most votes in the primary and then going on to lose the General.  Republicans have won 61 congressional elections (regular, full term) since 2012 and in all 61 the total Republican vote in the primary was greater than the Democratic vote. Past performance does not guarantee future results yada yada yada but that's a good sign for Dems in CA-09, CA-47, and CA-49.