Odds increasing that Republicans could be swept in all key Senate races?

[sg0508]

What do you think? We know certain states listed below are longshots, but some of them are pointing to losses, maybe even some going away in the end.  Right now, the momentum as it's been since late spring clearly appears to be at the Democrats' back.

NV, AZ, NH, WA, PA, WI, GA, OH/NC/MO/UT (likely staying GOP), AK and maybe more?

Could you actually see this playing out where somehow, the Republicans lose all these races, outside of the last four where they are favored by definition? It just feels like the national picture (despite inflation and a weakening job market) is taking a backseat to Roe, Trump's candidates, and other social matters that may draw liberals out bigtime where they otherwise, would have stayed home.

[Pericles]

It's far more likely Republicans end up with 54 Senate seats, on a uniform swing they need a merely neutral environment for 53 and then to get lucky in NH, or to have an 8 point swing that wins NH while significantly underperforming in but still winning AZ, GA and PA.

[Xing]

If we’re considering WA a “key” Senate race, then it’s more likely that Democrats sweep AZ/CO/GA/NV/NH/PA/WI and even NC, not that it’s saying much (0.001%>0%.) Add OH/MO/UT, and I’d say “0%=0%.”

Taking out the not-competitive WA-SEN race, it’s more likely Republicans sweep the close races, though CO will still be tough for them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's far more likely Republicans end up with 54 Senate seats, on a uniform swing they need a merely neutral environment for 53 and then to get lucky in NH, or to have an 8 point swing that wins NH while significantly underperforming in but still winning AZ, GA and PA.

Rs aren't netting 54 seats and Barnes is leading in WI

Rs aren't holding all their vulnerable seats and they have 3open ones PA, OH and NC Vance isn't Rob Portman that's gonna win by 20 I don't know why users think he is

Some people don't look at the Change polls that had all our S incumbent safe and still think Rs gonna get 54 Seats, NOT

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Yes. the odds are definitely increasing.  I would put the probability of Dems winning the first 7 of those (putting them at 52 seats) at around 40%.

[Senator Incitatus]

I don't see any chance of it, no.

It just feels like the national picture (despite inflation and a weakening job market) is taking a backseat to Roe, Trump's candidates, and other social matters that may draw liberals out bigtime where they otherwise, would have stayed home.

Nothing suggests to me that your feeling is anything more than that.

Right now, the momentum as it's been since late spring clearly appears to be at the Democrats' back.

Nor is the "momentum" clearly with anyone. It certainly hasn't been with the Democratic Party since spring, which is right around when Biden went from merely "unpopular" to (depending on your measure) the least popular in recorded history. Dobbs has slowed Republicans as the electorate catches its breath, but the underlying reaction so far and the existence of more pervasive economic fundamentals suggest that slowdown is temporary.

The only thing that has really changed relative to my initial belief re: the Senate (R+4) is that Dr. Oz is a complete dud of a candidate. Walker remains a grenade waiting to be pulled but it hasn't yet happened. Beyond that, members of this forum keep inventing absurd narratives like Masters being an already-failed candidate as he's surging in every poll. I get that the election isn't very exciting yet, but it's July. Resist the temptation to go on the fritz now or you won't make it to November.

Still feel fairly confident in my baseline prediction. Will continue to readjust as events occur but can certainly rule out anything like you're suggesting.

[Joseph Cao]

Practically nil to practically nil is still an increase in odds, so yes.

Still dwarfed by the odds of a Republican sweep.

[wesmoorenerd]

The odds of NH/NV/AZ/GA/PA are honestly looking pretty good. Not "north of 50/50" good by any means, but sizable. Add WI to the equation and it becomes less likely, but still feasible. Anything past that, not really.

[wbrocks67]

I don't see any chance of it, no.

It just feels like the national picture (despite inflation and a weakening job market) is taking a backseat to Roe, Trump's candidates, and other social matters that may draw liberals out bigtime where they otherwise, would have stayed home.

Nothing suggests to me that your feeling is anything more than that.

Right now, the momentum as it's been since late spring clearly appears to be at the Democrats' back.

Nor is the "momentum" clearly with anyone. It certainly hasn't been with the Democratic Party since spring, which is right around when Biden went from merely "unpopular" to (depending on your measure) the least popular in recorded history. Dobbs has slowed Republicans as the electorate catches its breath, but the underlying reaction so far and the existence of more pervasive economic fundamentals suggest that slowdown is temporary.

The only thing that has really changed relative to my initial belief re: the Senate (R+4) is that Dr. Oz is a complete dud of a candidate. Walker remains a grenade waiting to be pulled but it hasn't yet happened. Beyond that, members of this forum keep inventing absurd narratives like Masters being an already-failed candidate as he's surging in every poll. I get that the election isn't very exciting yet, but it's July. Resist the temptation to go on the fritz now or you won't make it to November.

Still feel fairly confident in my baseline prediction. Will continue to readjust as events occur but can certainly rule out anything like you're suggesting.

No? Trump's worst average approval is still much worse than Bidens.

[Devils30]

The Dems best scenario I can see is 52 and that's if everything falls right. If they somehow got 53 it's probably only if the GOP completely collapses in the House as well due to ridiculous abortion laws and gas prices dropping after Labor Day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 maps but it's a midterm partisan trends don't always match with Prez, in 2018/19 we won OH, WVA, and AZ and losing ND, IN, FL and MO Senate race and won KS and then KY too so Rs argument about a D plus 8 cycle doesn't hold water be sure we lost in 2018 red states TN and TX and Hogan abd Sununu won

I know it's a 303 map but we will be scoreboard watching in Nov and I don't want to be wrong and put especially OH, NC and FL as Lean R and Crist or Beto or even Charles Booker luck out and win


It's very low odds of us sweeping everything but Nate Silver just put OH abd FL as battleground state no NC but it's within three

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nate-silver-pelosi-fundraising-email-200506134.html

Users making R nut maps don't realize that you can't update your map on EDay, like Xing and he over predicted Biden margin in 2020, but he has 150 days to change it

It's a 51/55 Senate from being WI, PA and losing GA 51/49 and winning OH, FL and NC but if Demings or Beasley loses we go to IA, MO or LA for 55 and then we have UT


Just note the user predictions doesn't block you from making beyond 303 and users like Rs are so stuck only on 303

The H can range from 218 D's to 230 Rs but Rs won't get a Supermajority 241 RH and 54 S seats that ship has sailed

[Sir Mohamed]

The Dems best scenario I can see is 52 and that's if everything falls right. If they somehow got 53 it's probably only if the GOP completely collapses in the House as well due to ridiculous abortion laws and gas prices dropping after Labor Day.

Yup, though I'm unsere whether WI or NC is the 52nd seat (defending all seats and flip PA). My bold take would be NC. But just very slightly.

[President Johnson]

The Dems best scenario I can see is 52 and that's if everything falls right. If they somehow got 53 it's probably only if the GOP completely collapses in the House as well due to ridiculous abortion laws and gas prices dropping after Labor Day.

Yup, though I'm unsere whether WI or NC is the 52nd seat (defending all seats and flip PA). My bold take would be NC. But just very slightly.

North Carolina is very unlikely to flip in this cycle and environment. While Ron Johnson is far more likely to win than not, he might go down if the climate somewhat improves and his role during January 6 gets highlighted again and potential new evidence against him. While I'm still skeptical it would matter enough, it's still more likely than Beasley winning her race. As much is I'd like to see both seats flip Democratic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems best scenario I can see is 52 and that's if everything falls right. If they somehow got 53 it's probably only if the GOP completely collapses in the House as well due to ridiculous abortion laws and gas prices dropping after Labor Day.

Yup, though I'm unsere whether WI or NC is the 52nd seat (defending all seats and flip PA). My bold take would be NC. But just very slightly.

North Carolina is very unlikely to flip in this cycle and environment. While Ron Johnson is far more likely to win than not, he might go down if the climate somewhat improves and his role during January 6 gets highlighted again and potential new evidence against him. While I'm still skeptical it would matter enough, it's still more likely than Beasley winning her race. As much is I'd like to see both seats flip Democratic.

Lol Biden, Warren are campaigning for Barnes and Fetterman and Warnock and Abrams it's a 303 map Barnes will win before Johnson guess what his Approvals not 60% it's 37% like Toomey, that's why Toomey declined reelected

It's a 303 map followed by WI and Pa and then NC, OH and FL as wave insurance


Barnes is not weak as everyone thinks this is the same Barnes that ran as LT Gov with Evers that defeated Walker 2018 ad Barnes leads by 2 and Evers leads by 8, don't forget Socialist Baldwin defeated Tommy Thompson in 2012, and Feingold was a socialist WI is used to electing socialist like BARNES

[Chips]

You could say that but I'd still say the odds are pretty low. For now, I'd call PA, NV, NH, AZ, GA the key races so that's 5 races that Democrats have to sweep. If you were to tell me that Democrats will end up winning 3 of them, that'd be a bit more likely than having to sweep 5 races.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Assuming a "key race" is considered anything rated as a tossup on the atlas consensus forecast, probably 30% or so; once one dominoe falls, a lot fall. The one I have the trickiest time seeing them winning is NH just due to Hassan's incumbency, relatively lackluster candidates on the GOP side, and the state overall being decently blue nowadays, but in a GOP wave you def can't write it off. However, if it does flip, there's a very good chance the GOP is finding success in GA/PA/AZ.

Given I think NH Sen has about a 35% chance of going R, 30% chance sweep all races seems pretty fair, with ofc that 5% off chance Rs flip NH-Sen but fall short somewhere else for some reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Assuming a "key race" is considered anything rated as a tossup on the atlas consensus forecast, probably 30% or so; once one dominoe falls, a lot fall. The one I have the trickiest time seeing them winning is NH just due to Hassan's incumbency, relatively lackluster candidates on the GOP side, and the state overall being decently blue nowadays, but in a GOP wave you def can't write it off. However, if it does flip, there's a very good chance the GOP is finding success in GA/PA/AZ.

Given I think NH Sen has about a 35% chance of going R, 30% chance sweep all races seems pretty fair, with ofc that 5% off chance Rs flip NH-Sen but fall short somewhere else for some reason.

Barnes is winning in WI by two 46(44