What scenario results in this electoral map?
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  What scenario results in this electoral map?
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Author Topic: What scenario results in this electoral map?  (Read 423 times)
TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« on: June 28, 2022, 09:26:15 AM »



DeSantis: 277
Biden: 261
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2022, 09:37:05 AM »

Forgot to tweak the state margins, sorry! Didn't intend for DeSantis to win Nevada by a wider margin then Arizona and there's probably a few other errors I'm overlooking.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2022, 09:43:52 AM »

DeSantis makes a strong pitch to Hispanic voters and suburbs, allowing him to flip NV, AZ and GA. WI was just very close as usual, with just a few thousand votes making the difference while Biden keeps MI and PA.

DeSantis would for sure win >60% in UT; I guess the OP just forgot about that.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2022, 09:49:54 AM »

DeSantis makes a strong pitch to Hispanic voters and suburbs, allowing him to flip NV, AZ and GA. WI was just very close as usual, with just a few thousand votes making the difference while Biden keeps MI and PA.

DeSantis would for sure win >60% in UT; I guess the OP just forgot about that.

see above, I clumsily forgot to change any of the state margins from 20.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2022, 10:47:53 AM »

The economy doesn't improve, Biden's popularity doesn't change much, DeSantis (or any other passably sane Republican) runs a decent campaign.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2022, 03:52:40 PM »

DeSantis makes a strong pitch to Hispanic voters and suburbs, allowing him to flip NV, AZ and GA. WI was just very close as usual, with just a few thousand votes making the difference while Biden keeps MI and PA.

DeSantis would for sure win >60% in UT; I guess the OP just forgot about that.

I would disagree that DeSantis would surely get >60% in UT. There was not a significant 3rd party vote share in 2020 unlike 2016, and Trump "only" got 58% compared to Biden's 38%. Most of the dissaffected mormon voters in 2016 broke pretty heavily for Trump in 2020 already, and in the SLC area, Dem gains seem to be a bit more stable given that SLC swung left from 2016.

DeSantis very well could get above 60% in UT and the state would prolly swing right a bit, but to assume DeSantis will automatically do 5+ points better than Trump's margin in UT by default is short sighted.
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