Suffolk - RI-02 - Fung +6

[RI]

If there is indeed a collapse in the last remaining non-college white Biden pockets, this is exactly the type of place you'd see it. Not saying the poll is accurate, but there's definitely a story where you could see this type of shift without a 20 point swing overall.

[President Johnson]

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

Wouldn't he have to win reelection to the House since Rhode Island governor is elected in midterm years?

Anyway, not a great poll for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Could see Republicans picking up as many as five New England seats in a wave, which would be a dramatic improvement over 2010 and 2014. There’s only so much you can do to defy the gravity of national/cultural trends (same applies to the RGV/South TX), and the current margins in rural/small-town NE aren’t really sustainable for Democrats anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Could see Republicans picking up as many as five New England seats in a wave, which would be a dramatic improvement over 2010 and 2014. There’s only so much you can do to defy the gravity of national/cultural trends (same applies to the RGV/South TX), and the current margins in rural/small-town NE aren’t really sustainable for Democrats anymore.

Pappas and Golden and Kuster are safe post Dobbs and Golden has lead like Mills in 5 straight polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

Wouldn't he have to win reelection to the House since Rhode Island governor is elected in midterm years?

Anyway, not a great poll for Democrats.

We have to wait til Labor Day to see where the polls stand, it's still early it's only July

[DrScholl]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

So, you're either suggesting there's no swing voters who may be open to voting for a republican downballot or don't seem to understand the connotations of a wave midterm..? How exactly do you explain the historic republican lead on the generic ballot, if democratic support is so baked in..

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non-existent. It really is about who shows up and Republicans needs historically low Democratic turnout to win +14 Biden seats. The latest generic ballot poll has Republicans trailing.

[Xing]

It’s possible Fung wins, though it’s very doubtful that he’d win by this much.

[Politician]

Probably won't be this bad for Democrats, but this seat is definitely in play, and it's worth noting the same people who claim this poll is bunk are the people who took the Fetterman +9 and Barnes +2 polls at worth.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

So, you're either suggesting there's no swing voters who may be open to voting for a republican downballot or don't seem to understand the connotations of a wave midterm..? How exactly do you explain the historic republican lead on the generic ballot, if democratic support is so baked in..

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non-existent. It really is about who shows up and Republicans needs historically low Democratic turnout to win +14 Biden seats. The latest generic ballot poll has Republicans trailing.

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non existent..?

Thank you for at least clarifying the fact you have no idea what you're talking about.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This poll was conducted before Roe vs. Wade was overturned.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Could see Republicans picking up as many as five New England seats in a wave, which would be a dramatic improvement over 2010 and 2014. There’s only so much you can do to defy the gravity of national/cultural trends (same applies to the RGV/South TX), and the current margins in rural/small-town NE aren’t really sustainable for Democrats anymore.

Maybe the political environment is so hostile to the Democratic Party that nothing can save it but if you had to generate a single outcome to destroy the GOP in New England that wasn't farcical, something like "Republican plans to genocide New England leaked", it would be Roe vs. Wade being overturned...

[Pericles]

This is exactly the kind of seat that Dobbs could flip back, Democrats did win a few districts with similar partisanship in 2018 (others though they polled ahead with strong candidates and then lost eg KS-02). This is currently heading towards being a wave, not just a loss of the majority.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wouldn't he have to win reelection to the House since Rhode Island governor is elected in midterm years?

So they are; I thought Rhode Island was still under the old biennial system.

[DrScholl]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

So, you're either suggesting there's no swing voters who may be open to voting for a republican downballot or don't seem to understand the connotations of a wave midterm..? How exactly do you explain the historic republican lead on the generic ballot, if democratic support is so baked in..

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non-existent. It really is about who shows up and Republicans needs historically low Democratic turnout to win +14 Biden seats. The latest generic ballot poll has Republicans trailing.

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non existent..?

Thank you for at least clarifying the fact you have no idea what you're talking about.

Look at how few Democrats hold Trump seats and how few Republicans hold Biden seats. Swing voters are few and far between now because the choice between the parties is clearer than ever.

I didn't believer 2018 was much of a wave as much as it was an alignment. Democrats picked up mostly Clinton seats and the GOP was very overextended with those and on top of that they lost Senate seats. Waves are dead.

[kwabbit]

Fung is a great candidate. He has a moderate reputation and acquitted himself well in his previous gubernatorial runs. Dobbs could hurt him but he is pro-choice so he might hold up better against those attacks.

Magaziner does hold a statewide office, but as far as I can tell he's just parachuting into this district because of the logjam of statewide Democrats.

This district could flip independently of national forces. Even in small wave Fung could win. This is an R-trending part of the state and just an insular region in general. Voters like to ticket split and have been very elastic.

[Senator Incitatus]

Fung is a great candidate. He has a moderate reputation and acquitted himself well in his previous gubernatorial runs. Dobbs could hurt him but he is pro-choice so he might hold up better against those attacks.

I find the reflexive claim that Dobbs will hurt Republicans especially odd when applied to specific cases like this, where it gives the Republican candidate a clear opportunity to localize the race and distinguish himself from those parts of the national platform that independents in his district will like least.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a RV poll not a LV poll

[kwabbit]

Fung is a great candidate. He has a moderate reputation and acquitted himself well in his previous gubernatorial runs. Dobbs could hurt him but he is pro-choice so he might hold up better against those attacks.

I find the reflexive claim that Dobbs will hurt Republicans especially odd when applied to specific cases like this, where it gives the Republican candidate a clear opportunity to localize the race and distinguish himself from those parts of the national platform that independents in his district will like least.

I don't think Dobbs will hurt Fung directly because he has a pro-choice record. Maybe it will help Democrats in general by making lean Dem voters more likely to vote Dem. This type of district has a lot of lean Dem types. It's not progressive and is quite elastic, so there are many moderate Dems here.

[Politician]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

So, you're either suggesting there's no swing voters who may be open to voting for a republican downballot or don't seem to understand the connotations of a wave midterm..? How exactly do you explain the historic republican lead on the generic ballot, if democratic support is so baked in..

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non-existent. It really is about who shows up and Republicans needs historically low Democratic turnout to win +14 Biden seats. The latest generic ballot poll has Republicans trailing.

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non existent..?

Thank you for at least clarifying the fact you have no idea what you're talking about.

Look at how few Democrats hold Trump seats and how few Republicans hold Biden seats. Swing voters are few and far between now because the choice between the parties is clearer than ever.

I didn't believer 2018 was much of a wave as much as it was an alignment. Democrats picked up mostly Clinton seats and the GOP was very overextended with those and on top of that they lost Senate seats. Waves are dead.

ME-2, NM-2, NY-22, OK-5, SC-1, UT-4 say hi

[DrScholl]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

So, you're either suggesting there's no swing voters who may be open to voting for a republican downballot or don't seem to understand the connotations of a wave midterm..? How exactly do you explain the historic republican lead on the generic ballot, if democratic support is so baked in..

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non-existent. It really is about who shows up and Republicans needs historically low Democratic turnout to win +14 Biden seats. The latest generic ballot poll has Republicans trailing.

Waves are dead and swing voters are almost non existent..?

Thank you for at least clarifying the fact you have no idea what you're talking about.

Look at how few Democrats hold Trump seats and how few Republicans hold Biden seats. Swing voters are few and far between now because the choice between the parties is clearer than ever.

I didn't believer 2018 was much of a wave as much as it was an alignment. Democrats picked up mostly Clinton seats and the GOP was very overextended with those and on top of that they lost Senate seats. Waves are dead.

ME-2, NM-2, NY-22, OK-5, SC-1, UT-4 say hi

You must have missed where I said mostly. And that was far fewer Republican leaning seats than Democrats picked up in 2006.

[GALeftist]

Very fake news. Quote me if I'm wrong.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Could see Republicans picking up as many as five New England seats in a wave, which would be a dramatic improvement over 2010 and 2014. There’s only so much you can do to defy the gravity of national/cultural trends (same applies to the RGV/South TX), and the current margins in rural/small-town NE aren’t really sustainable for Democrats anymore.

Maybe the political environment is so hostile to the Democratic Party that nothing can save it but if you had to generate a single outcome to destroy the GOP in New England that wasn't farcical, something like "Republican plans to genocide New England leaked", it would be Roe vs. Wade being overturned...

Dobbs = Titanium D New England, confirmed.

[Holmes]

Hmm this wasn't even the closest race in New England, lol.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was nauseated the entirety of Tuesday and went out of my way to be in as much of a news media blackout as possible. That was unfortunately interrupted when I was watching 'Seinfeld' on Pix11 (a local version of the CW) where the station aired Kathy Hochul declaring victory. They also, at the bottom of the screen, showed the congressional district results in New Jersey and New York and from what it appeared like, the red wave was real. In a panic I finally caved and looked up the overall election results on google only to find that everywhere else outside of New York, there was no red wave at all, and almost a blue one if anything.

I bring all this up, as irrelevant as it seems to this poll, is because the first hint of that was when I saw Magaziner pretty comfortably won this seat in spite of expectations and then looked north to see a complete Democratic romp in New Hampshire.

So I want to thank Fung and the polls that had him up for being some help to get over my anxiety of election night and tune into the news afterwards for the very refreshing "Republicans in disarray" takes. I certainly experienced a wave of relief at that point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This poll was not too inaccurate. All you needed to do was give all the undecideds to the Democrat!