Democrats vs the World

[NewYorkExpress]

November 8, 2022

Democrats shock the nation, hold House and Senate despite historic low approvals for Biden and Harris.

Despite historically low approvals for Joe Biden (37-58) and Kamala Harris (35-63), Democrats have stunned the political world tonight, retaining and gaining seats in both the House and Senate. Political insiders believe these stunning results have to do with energy within the Democratic party following the Supreme Court's decision back in June in Dobbs v. Mississippi, which overturned the landmark case of Roe v. Wade. Speculation has swirled around who the next Speaker of the House will be, as Nancy Pelosi has stated she will not serve another term as Speaker, with the early favorites being House Majority Whip Hakeem Jeffries, and the chair of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff.

House of Representatives

Republican gains: AZ-2, AZ-6, CA-3 CO-8, FL-2, FL-7, FL-13, GA-6, IA-3, ME-2, MT-1, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, WI-3, TX-38

Democratic gains: CA-40, CA-41, FL-15, FL-28, MD-1, MN-8, MO-2, NE-2, NM-2, NY-1, NY-2, NY-11, NY-22, NC-7, NC-9, NC-13, TX-34

Senate

 Republican gains: N/A

Democratic Gains: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Governors:

Republican gains: Kansas

Democratic Gains: Maryland, Massachusetts, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, South Carolina

[LAB-LIB]

Imagine.

[Alben Barkley]

It's 1948, but a midterm.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's 1948, but a midterm.

Nice comparison.

[NewYorkExpress]

November 8, 2022

Democrats shock the nation, hold House and Senate despite historic low approvals for Biden and Harris.

Despite historically low approvals for Joe Biden (37-58) and Kamala Harris (35-63), Democrats have stunned the political world tonight, retaining and gaining seats in both the House and Senate. Political insiders believe these stunning results have to do with energy within the Democratic party following the Supreme Court's decision back in June in Dobbs v. Mississippi, which overturned the landmark case of Roe v. Wade. Speculation has swirled around who the next Speaker of the House will be, as Nancy Pelosi has stated she will not serve another term as Speaker, with the early favorites being House Majority Whip Hakeem Jeffries, and the chair of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff.

House of Representatives

Republican gains: AZ-2, AZ-6, CA-3 CO-8, FL-2, FL-7, FL-13, GA-6, IA-3, ME-2, MT-1, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, WI-3, TX-38

Democratic gains: CA-40, CA-41, FL-15, FL-28, MD-1, MN-8, MO-2, NE-2, NM-2, NY-1, NY-2, NY-11, NY-22, NC-7, NC-9, NC-13, TX-34

Senate

 Republican gains: N/A

Democratic Gains: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Governors:

Republican gains: Kansas

Democratic Gains: Maryland, Massachusetts, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, South Carolina

These are totally unrealistic, even in some sort of massive Democratic overpeformance.

The House races (with the possible exception of MO-2 depending on how suburban trends look in 2024, are basically two year rentals.

In Ohio, both Tim Ryan and Nan Whaley ran strong general election campaigns, and in the Governor's race Niel Petersen drained a significant portion of the vote from DeWine, enough to tip the race to Whaley.

In South Carolina, Joe Cunningham ran a strong campaign, and Republican turnout dropped significantly compared to previous years. Cunningham is a heavy underdog in 2026, and replaces the recently defeated Laura Kelly as the most vulnerable Governor in the country (slightly ahead of Andy Beshear).

[NewYorkExpress]

November 9, 2022

January 6 Committee issues final report, recommends indictment of Donald Trump for sedition, and murder

The January 6 committee issued it's final report today. While the committee declined to make any judgments on current members of Congress, they did drop one major bombshell, recommending a criminal indictment against former President Donald Trump for sedition, incitement of a riot, the murder of rioter Ashil Babbitt by Capitol Police, and manslaughter for the suicides of almost a dozen current or former Capitol Police officers since January 6, 2021.

Representative Liz Cheney, who will be leaving office in January following her primary loss to Harriet Hageman stated that "Trump deserves the death penalty, quite frankly. There's no other punishment in my eyes for attempting to perform a coup". The other members of the committee have not commented on Cheney's statements at this time.

Joe Biden expected to announce that he will not run for reelection at State of the Union

In addition to pushing his domestic policy agenda, Joe Biden is expected to use this year's State of The Union address to announce that he will not run for reelection, according to White House sources. Individuals close to Biden have cited his low approval ratings, as well as his age (80 on November 20) as the reason for his decision.

Peace deal reached in Ukraine

Following the expert mediation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russia and Ukraine have reached a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Ukraine will surrender all claims to Crimea, while Russia will pull troops out of the Donbass region and all other portions of Ukraine, and will allow Ukraine to join the European Union and NATO if they are allowed to join by those organizations. This deal is being viewed as a massive victory for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as other than getting permanent recognition of Crimea from Ukraine, Russia recieved practically nothing. For Russia, this war may turn out to the deathblow to Vladimir Putin's rule, as over 125,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, plus 4,000 of their hired mercenaries, leading to speculation that a military coup may be imminent.

Clarence Thomas will retire from the Supreme Court when current term ends in June

Stating that he has achieved his biggest goal in helping overturn Roe v. Wade, Associate Justice Clarence Thomas announced that he would retire when the Supreme Court ends its year in June. Thomas, who has been under fire for his wife Ginni's involvement in 1/6/2021 capitol riots, said his decision to retire had nothing to do with impeachment charges that were brought in September by Representatives Cori Bush and Pramila Jayapal, that have since been shelved by House leadership.

November 10, 2022

Kamala Harris floats herself as Supreme Court nominee

The first formal statement by anyone in the Biden Administration on the pending Supreme Court vacancy to replace Clarence Thomas was made by Kamala Harris today in Christchurch, New Zealand, where Harris was representing the Administration in trilateral talks about a new trade deal with Australia and New Zealand. Harris floated the idea of vacating the Vice Presidency to join the Supreme Court, stating that "it's the dream of everyone involved with the legal profession to serve on the Supreme Court, and I'd be honored to serve if the President called upon me".

Donald Trump indicted for sedition, murder and manslaughter

Former President Donald Trump was indicted today in Washington D.C by the Justice Department on sedition and murder charges, stemming out the riot of January 6, 2021. In the indictment, unveiled by U.S Attorney Matthew Graves, Trump was indicted on seditious conspiracy charges, as well as the murder of Ashil Babbitt as depraved indifference homicide.

Prosecutors have offered Trump a plea to Manslaughter charges on Babbitt's death, with the maximum sentence, and the dropping of the seditious conspiracy charges, and it is believed that Trump will likely accept the plea bargain, rather than go through a trial.

November 11, 2022

Mike Pence first candidate to enter Presidential race

Former Vice President Mike Pence became the first major candidate on either side of the aisle to enter the Presidential race today, announcing his campaign at a rally at Lucas Oil Stadium today. Pence called for a total ban on abortion, a ban on same-sex marriage and homosexual activity, a ban on birth control, including condoms, and called for the impeachment of Associate Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Kentaji Brown Jackson for their "anti family" views. Pence is expected to face strong resistance from pro-Trump loyalists within the Republican Party, but many within the party believe that with Donald Trump not running and unable to endorse, unless another member of his family runs, Pence will likely be the favorite to win the nomination next summer.

DNC threatens to bar New Hampshire from future Presidential Conventions unless state law requiring primary to be first in the nation is repealed

DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison threatened New Hampshire officials today, warning that the Granite state could be permanently barred from the Democratic National Convention starting in 2024 and beyond if the state's laws mandating that their presidential primary, which is required to be first in the nation, are not changed. While Governor Chris Sunnunu did not comment, Democrats in the state legislature, fresh off capturing the House of Representatives and forcing a tie in the State Senate in the midterms, have stated that they will look into changing the law in question for the Democratic Primary only, while maintaining the required first in the nation status for the Republican Primary.

November 12, 2022

Linda Thomas-Greenfield stepping down as UN Ambassador to accept position as President of the International Olympic Committee

UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield will be stepping down as of January 1, to become President of the International Olympic Committee. Thomas-Greenfield replaces Thomas Bach who is retiring after deciding to head a group purchasing Polish Association Football club Wisla Krakow  Thomas-Greenfield, in a speech to IOC members pledged to evaluate whether to continue holding the Winter Olympics after 2026, given the ongoing effects of climate change.

November 15, 2022

Supreme Court rules 8-1 that states cannot bar people impeached officials from the ballot

In an 8-1 ruling authored by Associate Justice Kentaji Brown Jackson, the United States Supreme Court ruled in Blagojevich v. Illinois that a state may not ban an impeached individual from running for elected office in the future, stating that this violated the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment. Associate Justice Elena Kagan, authoring a solo dissent, stated that barring someone from running for office was neither cruel nor unusual in any jurisdiction, and called the majority opinion "working to protect and endorse a criminal and a con artist in Mr. Blagojevich". This decision clears the way for Blagjoveich to be on the ballot for the Chicago Mayoral election next year, a race for which he filed for back in August, and for which there is a crowded field opposing unpopular Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

White House denies Kamala Harris is under consideration for Supreme Court seat

The White House today denied rumors, some of which have been stoked by Kamala Harris that the Vice President was under consideration for a nomination the seat Clarence Thomas is vacating. President Biden, speaking to CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer stated that he hoped to have a nominee announced by New Year's Day, and that Harris "was not under consideration". Asked if he would run for President in 2024, Biden said that "he was leaning against it at this time" citing his age, and his low approval ratings. Asked if Kamala Harris would get his endorsement if she ran, Biden partially ducked the issue, but also suggested that Harris should try and primary Dianne Feinstein, who is the only Senator more unpopular with Democrats and Independents (19-71 as opposed to Harris's 39-49) instead, claiming that she could easily beat Feinstein head-to-head.

Harris has not commented, while Feinstein's Senate office reiterated that the incumbent has filed for reelection and "expects to be on the ballot in 2024, health willing".

Mitch McConnell will step down as Minority Leader

Following Republicans losing seats in the Senate for the second straight cycle, Mitch McConnell has privately told fellow Senators that he will not run for another term as Minority Leader, Politico has learned. So far, both Marco Rubio, fresh off his 50-46 victory over Val Demings, and John Thune, who defeated author Brian Bengs 70-30 in this year's midterms, are the only Republicans to express interest in being Minority Leader.

Bernie Sanders states he will not make a third Presidential bid, will not run for reelection in 2024

Bernie Sanders, the liberal lion of the left, stated today on Good Morning America in an interview with Robin Roberts that he would not make a third bid for President in 2024, and that he would not run for reelection to his Senate seat in 2024 as well. Calling The Squad "worthy heirs to my legacy", he said it was "time to pass the torch to them".

Tulsi Gabbard files to run for President as a Republican

Former Representative Tulsi Gabbard, who ran for President as a Democrat in 2020, has switched parties and filed to run for President as a Republican. Gabbard, who carved out a reputation both in the Hawaii House of Representatives and the House of Representatives as a conservative Democrat, enters the race with the endorsements of former Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle, and former Hawaii Governor, and Lieutenant Governor and three time Gubernatorial nominee Duke Aiona, but she is not expected to perform well in the polls, especially as Republican Primary voters remember her as a Democrat.

November 19, 2022

Biden to nominate Marie Yovanovitch as UN Ambassador

Joe Biden announced the nomination of Marie Yovanvitch as the next Ambassador to the United Nations. Yovanavitch, who as Ambassador to Ukraine was a central figure in the scandal surrounding Donald Trump's efforts to organize a smear campaign against President Biden regarding his son Hunter, is expected to have a rocky road to confirmation, with no Republicans, except for possibly Mitt Romney, expected to vote in favor of her nomination. This nomination is seen by watchers of U.S foreign policy, that the current U.S line on Russia will continue, and a possible shift in China policy, as Yovanovitch is not considered an expert on China policy.

November 30, 2022

Biden to nominate Leondra Kruger to Supreme Court

President Biden has announced his intent to submit California Supreme Court Justice Leondra Kruger as his nominee to the Supreme Court to replace Clarence Thomas when the new Congress convenes in January. Kruger is considered a moderate on the California Supreme Court, but her nomination to replace Thomas will swing the court dramatically back to the left, and from a 6-3 conservative majority, to a 5-4 conservative majority. Kruger is not expected to earn any Republican votes during the confirmation process, though Senators Susan Collins (R-ME), Mitt Romney (R-UT) and Tim Scott (R-SC) are seen as possible yes votes, especially Scott, who reportedly advised Biden to pick Kruger instead of the other pick the President was considering, Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Jacqueline Nugyen.

[Illini Moderate]

Interesting TL hope it continues

[NewYorkExpress]

Interesting TL hope it continues

I'm working out which additional Republicans will in 2024, and which Democrats will run to replace Biden (it won't be a big field, regardless of whether Harris runs).

[NewYorkExpress]

December 1, 2022

Vladimir Putin will not run for reelection

Russian President Vladimir Putin, under fire at home for a lack gains in the Ukrainian War which ended last month announced in a televised address that he would not run for reelection in President of Russia in 2024. Putin, who's approval ratings have tumbled since the war ended, and who has led Russia into economic catastrophe since the war began, did not suggest  a possible successor, and indicated he was leaving politics for good. The current frontrunner in the Russian Presidential election, the first round of which will be held on March 17, 2024, is Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of the United Russia Party.

Chinese Government to seek extradition for all individuals who have fled Hong Kong since passage of security law

Officials in the Chinese Communist Party filed motions with over eighty countries around the world seeking the extradition of every individual who has fled Hong Kong since the passage of the security law there in 2020. At least one official, speaking candidly, warned that if the extradition requests were not granted, force would have to be used and "there was no telling what could happen".

Elizabeth II dead at 96

Queen Elizabeth II died at 96 late last night at Buckingham Palace. The Queen, who spent sixty years as the monarch and head of state of the United Kingdom, died of natural causes according to palace insiders.

Prince Charles is to become the next monarch of the United Kingdom, and has indicated that he will take the Regnal name Charles III.

December 2, 2022

Paul Ryan to enter Wisconsin Senate race

Former Speaker of the House and 2012 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan has announced a dramatic return to politics, announcing today at a rally in his hometown of Janesville a campaign against Senator Tammy Baldwin in what is expected to be a marquee Senate race in 2024.

Baldwin has expressed interest in running for President if Joe Biden does not run for reelection, which could leave a huge opening for Ryan, or another Republican in this battleground state.

New nuclear deal reached between Iran and Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, fresh off an election victory for his coalition government last October announced a deal with Iran regarding it's nuclear program that is the result of four months of secret negotiations. Iran will surrender all nuclear technology and demolish all nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants by July 1, 2023, and in exchange Israel will surrender it's nuclear program, including any nuclear weapons it has, to third party custody, also by July 1, 2023. Both countries have agreed on the United States as the ultimate destination for all Israeli nuclear technology, including any Israeli nuclear weapons.

December 15, 2022

Miracle in Qatar-United States wins World Cup

The United States defeated Argentina 1-0 in the Final of the FIFA World Cup this morning, capping off a miraculous run. Goalkeeper Matt Turner, for shutting down an Argentina attack that included powerhouses Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Paulo Dybala (each of whom had five shots on goal) earned Player of the Match honors.

[NewYorkExpress]

December 20, 2022

Marie Yovanovitch confirmed as UN Ambassador

On the final day of the lame duck session of Congress, the United States Senate confirmed Marie Yovanovitch as Ambassador to the United Nations, 49-49, with Vice President Kamala Harris voting to break the tie. Neither Patrick Leahy, who has been absent since June recovering from hip surgery nor Ron Johnson were present on the Senate floor for the vote.

December 26, 2022

Kyrsten Sinema will not run for reelection

Embattled Senator Kyrsten Sinema has confirmed that she will not run for reelection in 2024. Sinema, whose approval ratings in Arizona are 36-55, and 11-80 among Democrats after spending the last two years almost single-handedly blocking the Biden legislative agenda, did not rule out a run for President as either a Democrat or an Independent.

December 27, 2022

Texas Attorney General issues legal opinion stating that vasectomies are a form of abortion and thus illegal.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton issued a legal paper today stating that vasectomies are a form of male abortion and are thus illegal under Texas law, and directed Texas prosecutors to prosecute men having vasectomies and doctors who perform them with the same charges as they would with charge a woman who had an abortion and their doctor.

January 1, 2023

New Congress sworn in

The 118th United States Congress was sworn in today, and the first they got down was filling the vacant leadership positions of Speaker of the House and Senate Minority Leader. Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) was elected Speaker of the House today, while Senator John Thune (R-SD) defeated Marco Rubio (R-FL) to serve as Minority Leader in the new Senate, with Mitt Romney (R-UT), succeeding Thune as Minority Whip.

Lisa Murkowski will run for President

Lisa Murkowski, last seen losing reelection to Kelly Tshibaka last November, will launch a bid for President according to sources close to the former Alaska Senator. While Murkowski is not expected to poll particularly well, she enters the race with the support of several current and former elected officials in Alaska, most notably former Governor Sean Parnell, who is reportedly considering a run for Alaska's At-Large Congressional District in 2024, where Sarah Palin is the incumbent.

January 2, 2023

United Kingdom Election results in sizable Labor Majority. Kier Starmer to become Prime Minister.

Following a General Election, called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak following the demise of Boris Johnson's Prime Ministership after Opposition Leader Keir Starmer threatened to call a vote of no-confidence in the House of Commons unless Sunak called for elections, Starmer's Labour Party has won a resounding victory today, claiming a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The other big story of the night was the Scottish National Party winning every Scottish seat in the Commons, meaning there will likely be another Independence Referendum, either in 2023 or 2024, at least if Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gets her way.

United Kingdom, Parliamentary Election

Labour Keir Starmer 331 seats
Conservative Rishi Sunak 201 seats
Scottish National Party Ian Blackford 59 seats
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 18 seats
Sinn Fein 10 seats
Democratic Unionist Party Jeffery Donaldson 9 seats
Plaid Cymru Liz Saville Roberts 7 seats
Independents 5 seats

[NewYorkExpress]

January 3, 2023

Supreme Court rules that states cannot regulate or legalize abortions

In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court, in a politically charged opinion written by Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett, ruled in Center for Reproductive Rights v. Arizona, that Arizona's personhood law which gave legal rights to the unborn was constitutional, and that a child "has the right to be born, period". Chief Justice John Roberts's minority opinion, not joined by any other justice, lambasted the other five conservatives for trampling on the very definition of State's Rights, while the minority opinion of Sonia Sotomayor, joined by the other two members of the liberal wing, explicitly called for the return of the standard of Roe v. Wade, and going beyond Roe, so that abortion is available whenever it is wanted or needed for any conceivable reason.

Kristen Sinema becomes the first Democrat to file for the Presidency

Joe Biden hasn't formally announced that he isn't running for reelection. Kamala Harris hasn't formally declared her own plans yet. But that isn't stopping Senator Kristen Sinema, unpopular at home, and already having announced that she will not run for reelection to avoid a primary challenge, from launching a bid for the Presidency. Democratic insiders say Sinema's bid is doomed to failure, even if Biden and Harris, both of whom are unpopular, decline to run, with Jim Messina, a former Obama campaign adviser, currently working on London Breed's campaign for reelection for Mayor of San Francisco (where she faces a challenge from former District Attorney Chesa Boudin) told CNN's John King that "Sinema has no political instincts at all. She thinks she can tack back to the left after spending two years blocking the Biden Agenda? Give me a f***ing break!"

Russian Special forces spirit Trump out of country, just hours before sentencing.

Just hours before former President Donald Trump was to be sentenced on manslaughter charges in the death of Ashil Babbitt, Russian special forces have spirited him out of the United States in a covert operation, believed to have been authorized at the highest levels of the Russian Government.

Secretary of Defense Anthony Blinken called the operation an "act of war" by Russia, and suggested that a military operation, possibly involving the use of nuclear weapons against Russian territory could be authorized by Biden in retaliation.

January 5, 2023

Biden confirms he will not run for reelection

President Biden, originally expected to announce that he would not seek reelection at the State of the Union later this month, instead disclosed that he would not run in a wide-ranging interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper this morning from the White House. Biden cited his age, his unpopularity, and his wife Jill's interest in running for Governor of Delaware in 2024.

Biden's comments are first on the record statements anyone has made about the First Lady's interest in a bid for Governor of Delaware in 2024, and the First Lady's press secretary, Michael LaRosa told reporters that First Lady was considering a bid for Governor of Delaware, but did not intend to make a decision on entering the race until some time in the summer of 2023.

Should Jill Biden run for Governor of Delaware, an open seat, with incumbent John Carney term limited, it's expected she'll face a stiff primary challenge. Former Attorney General Matthew Denn announced a campaign back in December, and both New Castle County Chief Executive Matt Meyer and Attorney General Kathy Jennings are openly considering campaigns, with Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall-Long and State Senator Sarah McBride also considered likely candidates, though McBride is considered a more likely candidate for Lieutenant Governor, as Bethany Hall-Long is term-limited for that office.

Corey Stapleton ends Presidential bid, will run for Senate

Former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton has ended his Presidential bid, which he began back in October, and will instead run for Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, who is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent Senators in 2024.

Stapleton is expected to have significant problems getting through a primary, as several high-profile Montana Republicans are considering campaigns, most notably former Attorney General Tim Fox, Lieutenant Governor Kristen Juras, State Senator Mark Blasdel, and former Representative and 1996 and 2012 nominee Denny Rehberg.

Tester is currently leading generic R by narrow margins in all publicly available polling, but trails Fox, Juras, Blasdel and Greg Gianforte by small margins (Rehberg and Stapleton have not yet been polled).

January 7, 2023

Boris Johnson under criminal investigation

Former UK Prime Minister and MP Boris Johnson is under criminal investigation for obstruction of justice in continuing fallout from the scandal surrounding allegations of sexual misconduct by former Conservative Party Chief Deputy Whip Chris Pincher, Scotland Yard has confirmed to the BBC.

New Hampshire Secretary of State says that primary doesn't have to be first in the nation, and that it can be scheduled later without changing the law.

Newly sworn in New Hampshire Secretary of State Stephanie Hyland stated that it was her opinion that it was within the Secretary of State's sole power to set the Presidential Primary date for New Hampshire, and that the Secretary of State could set said primary date later than the first primaries if they chose. While that technically contravenes New Hampshire law, the DNC has recently filed suit in federal court seeking to have that law declared unconstitutional, and Hyland's comments were made in a hearing at trial before District Court Judge Paul Barbadoro, who is expected to make his ruling on the case sometime in February.

January 8, 2023

Kamala Harris won't run for President, open to being Vice President for eventual nominee.

Kamala Harris has confirmed to ABC's George Stephanopoulous that she won't run for President in 2024, stating that she "hadn't yet learned the lessons needed from her failed bid in 2020 to be a successful candidate". She also threw cold water on primarying Dianne Feinstein, but indicated she was willing to accept an appointment to the Senate in the event of Feinstein being unable to finish the current term or a new term if she won.

Harris told Stephanopolous that she would be open to remaining Vice President for whoever the Democratic nominee was in 2024, or accepting a different position in a future Democratic Administration, such as Attorney General.

January 9, 2023

Roy Cooper enters the Presidential Race

North Governor Roy Cooper became the second high-profile Democrat to announce a bid for President today in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Cooper's announcement speech pointed out that he was Democratic Governor in a Republican State, who has been proven to win elections before.

Cooper has a winnable road to the nomination, but his path depends on no notable progressives entering the race, as a progressive likely will be favored to win the nomination. Cooper also can win if several progressives run and split the progressive vote, and fewer moderates run, much like how Biden won the nomination in 2020, but it remains to be seen if that will pan out for him.

Sarah Palin becomes fourth Republican to announce Presidential campaign

Representative Sarah Palin, once the 2008 running mate of John McCain, has become the fourth Republican to launch a campaign for the Presidency today. Palin, launching her bid from Wasilla, where she once served as Mayor, savaged the current front-runner Mike Pence in speech calling him a "coward" and stating that "if it were me, presiding over the Senate on January 6, President Trump would have had 538 electoral votes in 2020". Palin becomes the second Alaskan to launch a bid in the Republican Primary, joining Lisa Murkowski, and the third woman, joining Murkowski and Tulsi Gabbard.

Murkowski Iowa campaign headquarters firebombed, three dead.

Lisa Murkowski's Iowa campaign headquarters in Sioux City were firebombed last night, with three campaign volunteers dead, and two more injured. This morning police arrested a 27 year old man active in the Proud Boys and charged him with three counts of first of first degree murder, two counts of attempted murder, and one count of first degree arson. Prosecutors in Woodbury County are expected to pursue the Death Penalty, and President Biden is reportedly expected to authorize Secret Service protection for Murkowski in light of the attack, possibly by as soon as tomorrow.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

January 3, 2023

Supreme Court rules that states cannot regulate or legalize abortions

In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court, in a politically charged opinion written by Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett, ruled in Center for Reproductive Rights v. Arizona, that Arizona's personhood law which gave legal rights to the unborn was constitutional, and that a child "has the right to be born, period". Chief Justice John Roberts's minority opinion, not joined by any other justice, lambasted the other five conservatives for trampling on the very definition of State's Rights, while the minority opinion of Sonia Sotomayor, joined by the other two members of the liberal wing, explicitly called for the return of the standard of Roe v. Wade, and going beyond Roe, so that abortion is available whenever it is wanted or needed for any conceivable reason.

Kristen Sinema becomes the first Democrat to file for the Presidency

Joe Biden hasn't formally announced that he isn't running for reelection. Kamala Harris hasn't formally declared her own plans yet. But that isn't stopping Senator Kristen Sinema, unpopular at home, and already having announced that she will not run for reelection to avoid a primary challenge, from launching a bid for the Presidency. Democratic insiders say Sinema's bid is doomed to failure, even if Biden and Harris, both of whom are unpopular, decline to run, with Jim Messina, a former Obama campaign adviser, currently working on London Breed's campaign for reelection for Mayor of San Francisco (where she faces a challenge from former District Attorney Chesa Boudin) told CNN's John King that "Sinema has no political instincts at all. She thinks she can tack back to the left after spending two years blocking the Biden Agenda? Give me a f***ing break!"

Russian Special forces spirit Trump out of country, just hours before sentencing.

Just hours before former President Donald Trump was to be sentenced on manslaughter charges in the death of Ashil Babbitt, Russian special forces have spirited him out of the United States in a covert operation, believed to have been authorized at the highest levels of the Russian Government.

Secretary of Defense Anthony Blinken called the operation an "act of war" by Russia, and suggested that a military operation, possibly involving the use of nuclear weapons against Russian territory could be authorized by Biden in retaliation.

January 5, 2023

Biden confirms he will not run for reelection

President Biden, originally expected to announce that he would not seek reelection at the State of the Union later this month, instead disclosed that he would not run in a wide-ranging interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper this morning from the White House. Biden cited his age, his unpopularity, and his wife Jill's interest in running for Governor of Delaware in 2024.

Biden's comments are first on the record statements anyone has made about the First Lady's interest in a bid for Governor of Delaware in 2024, and the First Lady's press secretary, Michael LaRosa told reporters that First Lady was considering a bid for Governor of Delaware, but did not intend to make a decision on entering the race until some time in the summer of 2023.

Should Jill Biden run for Governor of Delaware, an open seat, with incumbent John Carney term limited, it's expected she'll face a stiff primary challenge. Former Attorney General Matthew Denn announced a campaign back in December, and both New Castle County Chief Executive Matt Meyer and Attorney General Kathy Jennings are openly considering campaigns, with Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall-Long and State Senator Sarah McBride also considered likely candidates, though McBride is considered a more likely candidate for Lieutenant Governor, as Bethany Hall-Long is term-limited for that office.

Corey Stapleton ends Presidential bid, will run for Senate

Former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton has ended his Presidential bid, which he began back in October, and will instead run for Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, who is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent Senators in 2024.

Stapleton is expected to have significant problems getting through a primary, as several high-profile Montana Republicans are considering campaigns, most notably former Attorney General Tim Fox, Lieutenant Governor Kristen Juras, State Senator Mark Blasdel, and former Representative and 1996 and 2012 nominee Denny Rehberg.

Tester is currently leading generic R by narrow margins in all publicly available polling, but trails Fox, Juras, Blasdel and Greg Gianforte by small margins (Rehberg and Stapleton have not yet been polled).

January 7, 2023

Boris Johnson under criminal investigation

Former UK Prime Minister and MP Boris Johnson is under criminal investigation for obstruction of justice in continuing fallout from the scandal surrounding allegations of sexual misconduct by former Conservative Party Chief Deputy Whip Chris Pincher, Scotland Yard has confirmed to the BBC.

New Hampshire Secretary of State says that primary doesn't have to be first in the nation, and that it can be scheduled later without changing the law.

Newly sworn in New Hampshire Secretary of State Stephanie Hyland stated that it was her opinion that it was within the Secretary of State's sole power to set the Presidential Primary date for New Hampshire, and that the Secretary of State could set said primary date later than the first primaries if they chose. While that technically contravenes New Hampshire law, the DNC has recently filed suit in federal court seeking to have that law declared unconstitutional, and Hyland's comments were made in a hearing at trial before District Court Judge Paul Barbadoro, who is expected to make his ruling on the case sometime in February.

January 8, 2023

Kamala Harris won't run for President, open to being Vice President for eventual nominee.

Kamala Harris has confirmed to ABC's George Stephanopoulous that she won't run for President in 2024, stating that she "hadn't yet learned the lessons needed from her failed bid in 2020 to be a successful candidate". She also threw cold water on primarying Dianne Feinstein, but indicated she was willing to accept an appointment to the Senate in the event of Feinstein being unable to finish the current term or a new term if she won.

Harris told Stephanopolous that she would be open to remaining Vice President for whoever the Democratic nominee was in 2024, or accepting a different position in a future Democratic Administration, such as Attorney General.

January 9, 2023

Roy Cooper enters the Presidential Race

North Governor Roy Cooper became the second high-profile Democrat to announce a bid for President today in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Cooper's announcement speech pointed out that he was Democratic Governor in a Republican State, who has been proven to win elections before.

Cooper has a winnable road to the nomination, but his path depends on no notable progressives entering the race, as a progressive likely will be favored to win the nomination. Cooper also can win if several progressives run and split the progressive vote, and fewer moderates run, much like how Biden won the nomination in 2020, but it remains to be seen if that will pan out for him.

Sarah Palin becomes fourth Republican to announce Presidential campaign

Representative Sarah Palin, once the 2008 running mate of John McCain, has become the fourth Republican to launch a campaign for the Presidency today. Palin, launching her bid from Wasilla, where she once served as Mayor, savaged the current front-runner Mike Pence in speech calling him a "coward" and stating that "if it were me, presiding over the Senate on January 6, President Trump would have had 538 electoral votes in 2020". Palin becomes the second Alaskan to launch a bid in the Republican Primary, joining Lisa Murkowski, and the third woman, joining Murkowski and Tulsi Gabbard.

Murkowski Iowa campaign headquarters firebombed, three dead.

Lisa Murkowski's Iowa campaign headquarters in Sioux City were firebombed last night, with three campaign volunteers dead, and two more injured. This morning police arrested a 27 year old man active in the Proud Boys and charged him with three counts of first of first degree murder, two counts of attempted murder, and one count of first degree arson. Prosecutors in Woodbury County are expected to pursue the Death Penalty, and President Biden is reportedly expected to authorize Secret Service protection for Murkowski in light of the attack, possibly by as soon as tomorrow.

The Trump one reminds me of when the Waffen-SS freed Mussolini from prison. Great job

[NewYorkExpress]

January 10, 2023

First Ever Iowa Primaries will be held on March 5, 2024

The First ever Iowa Primaries are scheduled to be held on March 5, 2024 according to Iowa Democratic Party Chairman and State Representative Ross Wilburn. His Republican counterpart, former State Representative Jeff Kauffman, said that while the date was later than usual, both he and Wilburn were in talks with elected officials and party leaders in other Midwestern states, notably Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin about holding a regional primary on that date.

Ron DeSantis becomes fifth Republican to enter Presidential race

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis became the fifth Republican to enter the Presidential race this morning at a campaign rally at the Daytona International Speedway. DeSantis, who defeated Nikki Fried last November to win reelection by a 53-43 margin, played a preview of the campaign he'd run, calling Democrats "far-left socialists" and calling his record in Florida "sterling". DeSantis hit his top rivals in early polling, Mike Pence and Sarah Palin as "losers" (Palin) and "traitors" (Pence).

January 12, 2023

Leondra Kruger clears Senate Judicary Committee.

After three days of hearings, Leondra Kruger's nomination to replace Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court has cleared an important hurdle, as the Senate Judiciary Committee has voted 12-10 to recommend Kruger to the full Senate, with Senator Cheri Beasley (D-NC) voting to join all Republicans in voting against Kruger's nomination in committee. So far, Beasley is the only Democrat to come out against Kruger's nomination, stating that she would have preferred a different nomination, leading to some speculation that she was interested in being nominated, and all other Democrats and Democratic aligned Senators, with the exception of Joe Manchin and Angus King, have come out and said they will vote for Kruger, meaning she has the votes to be confirmed, even without a single Republican voting for her.

January 17, 2023

Leondra Kruger confirmed by Senate

Leondra Kruger was confirmed by the United States Senate and will begin her tenure as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court in July. The final vote was 53-47, with Senator Cheri Beasley joining the Republicans in voting against, and despite Democrats courting Tim Scott, Mitt Romney and Susan Collins, no Republicans voted in favor of Kruger.

January 18, 2023

Bob Menendez indicted on racketeering, bribery charges

Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was indicted on racketeering and bribery charges in federal court today. Prosecutors have alleged that Menendez took bribes and protection money from several Bergen County businesses to help them hire illegal immigrants from Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Mexico and Haiti.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has called on Menendez to resign, and has threatened to begin expulsion proceedings if Menendez does not do so by the end of the week.

Menendez's first court hearing is scheduled for for the end of the month.

January 19, 2023

Menendez resigns, effective upon appointment of replacement

Under indictment Senator Bob Menendez will resign, effective upon appointment of a new Senator, according to a statement from his office.

January 21, 2023

Sheila Oliver to be appointed to the Senate

Governor Phil Murphy has announced his intention to appoint Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver to the Senate to replace resigning Senator Bob Menendez. Murphy has stated that he will not schedule a special election, and Oliver has stated that she will not run for a full term in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

State of the races-2023

Kentucky-Governor

Andy Beshear is considered a prime prospect for Vice President on the 2024 Democratic ticket, but he'll have to get through a difficult reelection first. Republicans have assembled several candidates to run against the incumbent, including three statewide elected officials in Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Auditor Mike Harmon and Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles, plus State Representative Svannah Robinson have all been running for months. More recently, former U.N Ambassador Kelly Craft and State Senator Ralph Alvarado have announced their campaigns, and many believe that both Representative Andy Barr and Treasurer Allison Ball will announce bids as well (though both are also rumored to be considering the position of Attorney General being vacated by Cameron). Beshear is trailing all Republicans except for Maddox and Alvarado in the polls, and is currently trailing both Cameron and Quarles by double digits. Most political insiders believe that while a Beshear victory is still possible, it would take the Republicans nominating a very flawed candidate like Robinson, or a complete collapse for any other nominee for them to lose.

Likely R

Mississippi-Governor

Tate Reeves's announcement that he will run for reelection last October, surprised no one in the Republican Party, and he has avoided a primary challenge despite a crowded bench of ambitious Mississippi Republicans anxious to move up.

Democrats, already unlikely to pick up the Governor's mansion, suffered a blow when their top two choices, Former Secretary of Agriculture and 2018 and 2020 Senate nominee Mike Espy and Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley have both declined to run, with Espy accepting an appointment from the Biden Administration as Ambassador to South Africa (he awaits confirmation from the Senate), and Presley instead choosing to run for Secretary of State.

Democrats do have two candidates running. They are currently dealing with a primary between  Hinds County Administrator and 2019 Attorney General nominee Jennifer Collins and State Representative Earle Banks.

Also running is Vicksburg Mayor George Flaggs Jr as an Independent. Flaggs, a former Democrat is expected to draw votes away from the Democratic nominee in November, not that the Democrat has much of a chance in the deeply Republican state.

Safe R

Louisiana-Governor

John Bel Edwards is term-limited, and reportedly considering a bid for President as a Democrat or Independent. Louisiana's combination of a jungle primary and late filing deadline has lead to crowded fields that develop late, but already several big names from both parties have made their way into the race.

For the Republicans, seeking to regain the Governor's mansion and a trifecta after eight years out of power, running are Treasurer John Schroder, Attorney General Jeff Landry, Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser, Commissioner of Administration Jay Dardenne, and former Representative John Fleming.

For the Democrats, the candidates seeking to hold the Governor's mansion are, New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno, Baton Rouge Mayor Sharon Weston Broome, Shreveport Mayor and 2020 United States Senate candidate Adrian Perkins and State Senator Gary Smith Jr.

Republicans Landry and Nungesser currently hold the top two spots in the jungle primary, but Perkins, Moreno and Weston Broome trail closely behind. All political observers agree that a runoff is certain, and the only question remaining is whether the Democrats will be locked out of the general election. Republicans lead all runoff scenarios, but Weston Broome is within the margin of error of all Republicans but Nungesser.

Likely R

Chicago-Mayor

With less than a month until the Mayoral election in the Windy City, unpopular Mayor Lori Lightfoot is likely to see her tenure end, as polls show her near the rear of a crowded field.

While most of the attention has been on former Governor Rod Blagojevich, who managed to get the Supreme Court to rule that barring impeached individuals from holding office in the future violated the Eighth Amendment's clauses on cruel and unusual punishment, he's also not polling well, being the only candidate candidate trailing Lightfoot in the polls.

In addition to Blagojevich and Lightfoot, the serious candidates are, State Representative Kambium Buckner, Police Union Leader John Caranzara, Alderman Raymond Lopez, Alderman Roderick Sawyer, State Representative La Shawn Ford, Alderman Brian Hopkins, Alderman Anthony Beale and former President of the Chicago Teachers Union Jesse Sharkey.

A runoff on April 4 is considered a certainty, as no candidate is considered likely to get a majority of the vote. The current leaders in the polls are Buckner and Beale.

If Beale, Sawyer, Lopez or Hopkins wins, they will be the first ever Alderman to be elected Mayor of Chicago.

Safe Runoff Tossup

Dallas Mayor

Incumbent Eric Johnson is expected to win reelection handily in one of the largest cities in Texas, but Republicans aren't going down here without a fight, even in this deeply Democratic City. Their candidate is former State Senator Don Huffines, and despite an ongoing storm about whether Huffines is even eligible to serve as Mayor of Dallas, and the fact he's significantly more right wing than the city, he's put together a strong campaign, that's made the race unusually close. Huffines could still be thrown off the ballot, and Dallas Republicans have no backup plan, but assuming he makes the ballot, this is a race to watch this fall.

Lean D

Fort Worth-Mayor

Conversely, Democrats are going all out to try to capture the mayoral seat in Fort Worth from the Republicans and incumbent Mattie Parker. Their candidate, State Representative Nicole Collier, has posted consistent leads in the polls, and has even stretched that lead out to double digits, a clear sign of how the Dallas-Fort Worth area has shifted in recent years.

It remains to be seen if Collier can hold on and defeat Parker, but she has to be considered the favorite at this point.

Likely D

San Francisco-Mayor

London Breed is facing a stiff challenge in the Mayoral election from former District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who is running to her left, and has outpolled her in the past several polls, in addition to dramatically out-raising the incumbent financially, thanks to the power of high profile endorsements like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Cori Bush.

Boudin is still the underdog, largely thanks to Breed's large voter base, and the likelyhood that the sizable pool of undecided voters will come home for her, but the incumbent Mayor is in for the fight of her political life.

Tilt Breed

[It’s so Joever]

It's 1948, but a midterm.

McCarthy beats Pelosi!

[NewYorkExpress]

January 23, 2023

Senate overturns filibuster on legislation

With all but one Senators in the 2024 class voting in favor, Democrats in the United States Senate voted today 51-48 to overturn the filibuster for all legislation. Senator Cheri Beasley (D-NC) voted with all Republicans, while Senator Kristen Sinema, running for President, was absent on account of campaigning in South Carolina.

The removal of the filibuster is expected to allow key items on the Democratic Agenda, such as an infrastructure bill and possibly a bill that would allow for the banning of all outside income (including ownership of stocks and mutual funds) by members of Congress, Executive and Judicial Branch officials, which was introduced by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the House and Elizabeth Warren in the Senate, last week.

New Hampshire Primary set for February 27, 2024

Seeking to forestall a ruling by District Court Judge Paul Barbarado, and possibly settle a lawsuit with the DNC over New Hampshire's law governing the Presidential Primary date, New Hampshire Secretary of State Stephanie Hyland announced that the New Hampshire Primaries in 2024 will be held on February 27. The current date of the New Hampshire Primary puts New Hampshire one week before Iowa, one week after the South Carolina Republican Primary, four days before the South Carolina Democratic Primary and Louisiana Primary, and three weeks after the Nevada Primary.

It also would be one week after the Arizona Primaries, which have legislation pending in the State Senate for the Primary to be held on Tuesday, February 20.

DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison said that New Hampshire's new primary date was akin to "putting lipstick on a pig" and that the lawsuit would continue unless the law was changed.

January 24, 2023

Madison Cawthorn seeking return to Congress

Former Representative Madison Cawthorn has filed for a campaign to return to Congress, in North Carolina's 13th Congressional District where the incumbent Chuck Edwards is up for reelection. Cawthorn, who does not live in the district and has a history of courting violence against his political opposition, controversial comments and sexual assaults, will first have to get through the Republican Primary, where Johnston County Commissioner Tony Braswell and State Representative Howard Penny Jr. are already running.

Claire McCaskill files for Senate

Former Senator Claire McCaskill has filed for the United States Senate, setting up a potential rematch with incumbent Senator Josh Hawley next November. McCaskill, who lost to Hawley 51.5-45.5 in 2018, posted a fiery YouTube video attacking Hawley, calling his actions on 1/6/2021 "literal treason".

Hawley, for his part, is openly entertaining a run for President of the United States in 2024, and polls show him running 8-10 points ahead of all Democratic challengers for his Senate seat (though no current polls include McCaskill).

The last time a former Senator ran against the same opponent in an attempt to return to the Senate, Russ Feingold in 2016, he was defeated by the incumbent he was running against, Ron Johnson.

January 25, 2023

Pete Buttigeig to step down as Secretary of Transportation, run for President

In what might be the worst kept secret in all of Washington, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigeig announced he that he would resign as Secretary of Transportation, effective immediately, and would file for the Presidency.

This will be Buttigeig's second Presidential bid, after his last one, as the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was an unqualified success story, with a victory in Iowa and a close second in New Hampshire.

Buttigeig is expected to be a contender, but like in 2020, he is not expected to win the nomination, as, like in 2020, he is expected to struggle in the South.

January 26, 2023

Biden to nominate Nikki Fried as Secretary of Transportation

Reiterating the growing belief that Pete Buttigeig's exit as Secretary of Transportation was imminent and known to the White House, President Biden has nominated former Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried to serve as the next Secretary of Transportation. Fried, who was last seen losing to Ron DeSantis in the Governor's race last fall, 53-43, is expected to have an easy confirmation, and possibly an even more lopsided vote in the Senate than Buttigeig's 86-13 vote two years ago. Critically, Fried has already secured the support of both Florida Senators, Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, and several other Republican Senators (Dan Sullivan, Mitt Romney, John Cornyn, Mike Crapo, Chuck Grassley and Eric Schmitt) have already announced their intentions to vote for Fried in the Senate.

Mike Pompeo becomes the sixth Republican to enter the Presidential Race

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo became the sixth Republican to announce a campaign for President today.

Pompeo's rally attacked the current leader in the polls, Mike Pence as a "traitor", and stated that he "did the best for American foreign policy" as Secretary of State in the Trump Administration.

Pompeo is expected to be among the front-runners in the Presidential race alongside Pence and DeSantis.

Secret Service states that the Republican Presidential nominee will not be eligible for Secret Service protection

The Secret Service in a press release stated that they had determined that due to the Republican Party's anti-democratic positions, they were unwilling to provide any Republican candidate nor the eventual Republican nominees with the traditional Secret Service protection offered. At least one spokesperson for the Secret Service indicated that if a Republican won the Presidency, there would be en masse refusals to provide protection for that Republican.

[BigVic]

December 1, 2022

Vladimir Putin will not run for reelection

Russian President Vladimir Putin, under fire at home for a lack gains in the Ukrainian War which ended last month announced in a televised address that he would not run for reelection in President of Russia in 2024. Putin, who's approval ratings have tumbled since the war ended, and who has led Russia into economic catastrophe since the war began, did not suggest  a possible successor, and indicated he was leaving politics for good. The current frontrunner in the Russian Presidential election, the first round of which will be held on March 17, 2024, is Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of the United Russia Party.

Chinese Government to seek extradition for all individuals who have fled Hong Kong since passage of security law

Officials in the Chinese Communist Party filed motions with over eighty countries around the world seeking the extradition of every individual who has fled Hong Kong since the passage of the security law there in 2020. At least one official, speaking candidly, warned that if the extradition requests were not granted, force would have to be used and "there was no telling what could happen".

Elizabeth II dead at 96

Queen Elizabeth II died at 96 late last night at Buckingham Palace. The Queen, who spent sixty years as the monarch and head of state of the United Kingdom, died of natural causes according to palace insiders.

Prince Charles is to become the next monarch of the United Kingdom, and has indicated that he will take the Regnal name Charles III.

December 2, 2022

Paul Ryan to enter Wisconsin Senate race

Former Speaker of the House and 2012 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan has announced a dramatic return to politics, announcing today at a rally in his hometown of Janesville a campaign against Senator Tammy Baldwin in what is expected to be a marquee Senate race in 2024.

Baldwin has expressed interest in running for President if Joe Biden does not run for reelection, which could leave a huge opening for Ryan, or another Republican in this battleground state.

New nuclear deal reached between Iran and Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, fresh off an election victory for his coalition government last October announced a deal with Iran regarding it's nuclear program that is the result of four months of secret negotiations. Iran will surrender all nuclear technology and demolish all nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants by July 1, 2023, and in exchange Israel will surrender it's nuclear program, including any nuclear weapons it has, to third party custody, also by July 1, 2023. Both countries have agreed on the United States as the ultimate destination for all Israeli nuclear technology, including any Israeli nuclear weapons.

December 15, 2022

Miracle in Qatar-United States wins World Cup

The United States defeated Argentina 1-0 in the Final of the FIFA World Cup this morning, capping off a miraculous run. Goalkeeper Matt Turner, for shutting down an Argentina attack that included powerhouses Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Paulo Dybala (each of whom had five shots on goal) earned Player of the Match honors.

Only a few months off for the Queen

[NewYorkExpress]

January 28, 2023

Mike Braun will run for Governor of Indiana

Senator Mike Braun has become the fourth Senator to announce their 2024 plans, after Bernie Sanders, Kyrsten Sinema and Sheila Oliver have all announced that they will not run for reelection, announcing a bid for Governor of Indiana last night in Kokomo. Braun is expected to be the heavy favorite to win both the Republican Primary and the General election. In the Republican Primary, former President of Indiana Economic Development Corporation Eric Doden has already announced, and Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch and former State Senator Jim Merritt are weighing bids. Representative Trey Hollingsworth, who was previously considering a bid, has stated that he is now considering the Senate race or running for reelection.

On the Democratic side, no candidates have announced campaigns or publicly expressed interest yet, but it's rumored that former Representative Brad Ellsworth, State Senator Shelli Yoder, and 2022 Secretary of State nominee Destiny Wells all considering bids.

Eric Holcomb will run for Senate

As Indiana's Senate seat opened up, term-limited Governor Eric Holcomb confirmed this afternoon that he would run for the Senate seat being vacated by Mike Braun's Gubernatorial bid, giving Republicans and. While Holcomb is currently alone in the Republican Primary, the primary is expected to expand dramatically, with Representative Victoria Spartz, Representative Trey Hollingsworth, Attorney General Todd Rokita and former Representative Marlin Stutzman having all expressed interest in the race as of today.

One candidate who quickly denied interest is former Governor Mitch Daniels, who told reporters he was flattered to be considered, but he wasn't interested in a legislative position.

For the Democrats, no candidate has publicly declared interest, but speculation is swirling around former Representative Pete Visclosky and South Bend Mayor James Mueller, both of whom have not denied that they are looking at the race.

Utah will legalize gambling, casinos to be allowed anywhere in Salt Lake County.

Seeking to plug a projected $456.65 million budget shortfall in Fiscal Year 2024-2025, the Utah Legislature, by a 49-26 in the House of Representatives, and a 18-11 margin in the State Senate, passed legislation that would legalize casino gambling in Utah, anywhere in Salt Lake County. The legislation now goes to Governor Spencer Cox for his signature, and he is expected to sign the legislation, possibly as soon as midweek.

January 29, 2023

Italian General Election: Italy shifts right, but is spared a Gorgia Meloni Prime Ministership

Following an inconclusive general election in September, in which no party or coalition was able to gain a majority, leading to President Sergio Mattarella scheduling new elections for the end of January, after multiple failed attempts at producing an acceptable compromise candidate for Prime Minster (among the names vetoed were Venice Mayor Luigi Bruganaro, Vice President of the Constitutional Court Nicolo Zanon and the manager of Italian National Men's football team, Roberto Mancini).

In the election, both the Brothers of Italy and the Five Star Movement, the two largest parties in the October Election, lost ground to Lega and Forza Italia on the right, forcing a coalition between Brothers of Italy, Lega and Forza Italia, something that had failed to happen because of the Five Star Movement's surprising sucess in September.

President Mattarella has stated his intention to appoint either Lega leader Matteo Salvini, or Forza Italia's Deputy Mara Carfagna as the next Prime Minister, depending on the outcome of coalition talks between the three parties.

Italian General Election

All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, all 200 elective seats in the Senate.

Lega: Matteo Salvini: 111 Chamber of Deputies, 50 Senate
Forza Italia: Silvio Berlusconi: 79 Chamber of Deputies, 47 Senate
Five Star Movement: Giuseppe Conte: 68 Chamber of Deputies, 39 Senate
Brothers of Italy: Gorgia Meloni: 48 Chamber of Deputies, 41 Senate
Democratic: Enrico Letta 75 Chamber of Deputies, 22 Senate
Action-Italia Viva: Carlo Calenda: 19 Chamber of Deputies. 1 Senate

January 31, 2023

Coalition deal reached, Mara Carfagna will become first female Italian Prime Minister.

The three parties in the winning coalition in Italy reached a deal today to allow Forza Italia's Mara Carfagna to become the first female Prime Minister in Italian history. As part of the deal, the Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni will receive the Interior Ministry, Lega's Maetto Salvini will recieve the Foreign Ministry, and Lega will additionally receive the Defense and Justice Ministries, while Brothers of Italy gets the position of Deputy Prime Minister, which will go to Edmondo Cirelli.

In addition, as part of the coalition agreement, the government has agreed to pursue the withdrawal from both the European Union and from NATO.

Julian Castro announces Senate bid

Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro launched a Senate campaign against embattled Senator Ted Cruz today. Cruz who almost lost to Beto O'Rourke in 2018, and whom polls have consistently showed trailing both Castro brothers over the past two months, is still considering a run for President, and can on the ballot in both races, but now has to deal with his strongest possible opponent in the Senate race.

Castro's entry into the Senate race is expected to clear the Democratic field, though Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Chet Edwards are both unofficially considering the race.