As a Dem, why I'm still (somewhat) optimistic about FL

[ProgressiveModerate]

Optimistic in the sense it will stay competitive, a few points to the right of the nation, but not safe R.

It seems like after 2020, many people have written off Florida and even said it's indicative of a larger shift to the right long term.

1. Clinton's 2016 performance. People somehow completely ignore that in 2016, FL basically voted in line with states like WI and well to the left of GA. It shows how between 2 Pres cycles, dynamics of said cycle can shift states quite a bit in unexpected ways. What's to say in 2024 FL doesn't revert back

2. There's no evidence Trump's 2020 performance with Cubans is the norm. This is the same way Clinton's remakrably strong performance in Miami-Dade wasn't the norm either. The Cuban community always tends to have strong swings in favor of the incumbent party, and until 2020 Miami had actually been having a pretty stable shift leftwards. Basically, every other majour statewide race in recent years has fallen somewhere in-between Trump and Clinton's performance with Cubans. Infact even Rubio couldn't get Trump numbers with Cubans

3. Old people die. i know this sounds kind of silly, but seriously, a good chunk of the R base in Florida is retirees who aren't raising new families who are not going to live for decades longer. Long term in order for Rs to keep up, retirees would have to be moving to the state faster than they die which could become tricky, especially since Florida's population while still increasing appears to be slightly de-accelerating

4. In many communities, the GOP already seems to be relatively "maxed out" electorally. Take Tampa for instance where outside the immediate downtown and heavily black communities the GOP basically sweeps everything. That is very unusual for such a big metro. It's hard to see where they squeeze additional votes out of these places without either tapping into the black vote or white liberals. Furthermore, it's not like they can gain much more on the panhandle which has been shifting right for quite a while and contributed to pulling the state right. This is also why I hav e a hard time seeing Florida being a truly safe state with dramatic re-alignment; white liberals, blacks, and urban Hispanics should always give Dems a decent floor.

5. Turnout differentials. This is true in a lot of states but especially Florida; heavily Dem minroity communities throughout the state have extremely low turnout even in Pres years. With proper investment, turnout increases could be meaningful.

6. Orlando (and to a lesser degree Jacksonville). Both cities are relatively large, have had insane growth, have a diversifying population, and generally seem less culturally "Florida"  than places like Tampa and Miami. Biden net nearly double the votes out of Orange County (Orlando) than Obama in 2008, but it's not really discussed because of how the rest of the state has shifted right. Duval County used to be an important vote net for the GOP and in 2020 flipped to Biden, and has potential to net Ds quite a few votes with growing black population. Furthermore, neighboring counties like Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns which used to vote GOP by insane margins (and still do tbh) have narrowed a bit.

Again, I don't think demographic destiny or whatever will push Florida to be Lean D anytime soon, and frankly, there is quite a bit working in Rs favour which I acknowledge. My point is it seems stupid to just cede 30EVs to the GOP long term because of a disappointing result in 2020 unless that result gets proven again, especially when there are things working in your party's favour.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean, in 2016 Clinton did insanely well in Miami…and lost by 125k votes. We are seeing a general shift in Hispanic voting tendencies towards the GOP from 2016 to today, and unless that trend reversed it makes sense that FL would trend out of reach for Dems. When you combine that  with poor state infrastructure / little investment in the state post-Clinton, the fact that the last R president and probably the next R presidential nominee are from the state / the current governor of the state, and that retirees are moving there in droves…it’s not hard to see why Dems are pessimistic about it.

I agree that in 2024 if DeSantis is not the nominee Dems will have a shot at FL. But I think the odds of them winning it are very low, and it probably only happens in a nationwide landslide.

FL is the new home state of the GOP, like Texas used to be. Republicans control everything there and will invest in the state heavily and consistently regardless of what Dems do. Imo it makes more sense for Dems to try to contest Texas than Florida because trends are clearly in their favor in Texas and building infrastructure and party registration in the state will yield greater potential electoral rewards than Florida anyway.

None of this is to say Dems should give up on Florida, of course. They nearly won both major statewide races there as little as 4 years ago. But a lot has changed in those four years and tbh that kind of feels like VA-Gov 2013 in hindsight.

But remember…even after VA-Gov 2013, Rs still came back and won the governor’s mansion nearly a decade later! No reason Dems can’t win the state down the line under an R president even if it does pull a reverse VA (which, again, is not guaranteed).

Yeah VA is actually a fair comparison, especially since it'll be hard for Dems to make VA a truly safe D state because of Appalachia and other rural communities. Dems also do pretty well in most suburbs in VA yet always seem to find a way to do better. It's a state the GOP contests in good years for them but outside of that not much.

One main difference is given VA is only 13 EVs, it's a bit more worth it to just cede the state to Ds on the federal level whereas FL is a harder decision given it's so many EVs yet near certain to vote to the right of tha nation (and likely ripping point) barring some really strange dynamics. For 2022, I do think serious investment isn't worth it unless somethign dramatically changes.