UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,513
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« on: June 25, 2022, 08:59:43 PM » |
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I mean, in 2016 Clinton did insanely well in Miami…and lost by 125k votes. We are seeing a general shift in Hispanic voting tendencies towards the GOP from 2016 to today, and unless that trend reversed it makes sense that FL would trend out of reach for Dems. When you combine that with poor state infrastructure / little investment in the state post-Clinton, the fact that the last R president and probably the next R presidential nominee are from the state / the current governor of the state, and that retirees are moving there in droves…it’s not hard to see why Dems are pessimistic about it.
I agree that in 2024 if DeSantis is not the nominee Dems will have a shot at FL. But I think the odds of them winning it are very low, and it probably only happens in a nationwide landslide.
FL is the new home state of the GOP, like Texas used to be. Republicans control everything there and will invest in the state heavily and consistently regardless of what Dems do. Imo it makes more sense for Dems to try to contest Texas than Florida because trends are clearly in their favor in Texas and building infrastructure and party registration in the state will yield greater potential electoral rewards than Florida anyway.
None of this is to say Dems should give up on Florida, of course. They nearly won both major statewide races there as little as 4 years ago. But a lot has changed in those four years and tbh that kind of feels like VA-Gov 2013 in hindsight.
But remember…even after VA-Gov 2013, Rs still came back and won the governor’s mansion nearly a decade later! No reason Dems can’t win the state down the line under an R president even if it does pull a reverse VA (which, again, is not guaranteed).
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