MN-01 Special, Expedition Strategies (Ettinger internal): Finstad (R) +1

[Minnesota Mike]

Finstad 48
Ettinger 47

https://www.scribd.com/document/579258412/MN-01-Poll-Results-Memo-Ettinger-Campaign

[Minnesota Mike]

The primary will be the same day as the special.

Any chance of a split decision? Like Finstad winning the special but Munson winning the primary.

No. My understanding is Munson only filed for the regular election for campaign finance reasons, if he didn't file he would have to return some of the money he raised and already has spent. 

[Minnesota Mike]

This race is still likely Finstad but as I have been saying all along it's going to be closer than the general consensus. Single digit race IMO.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not including the Legal Marijuana Now and Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidates on the poll make it kind of junky given the success of those two parties in Minnesota. Grassroots got 5.8% in this district in the 2020 election.

Not sure what kind of turnout the pot parties are going to have in a low turnout Aug special. Normally the pot party voters are people who show up for another race (president in 2020) and really do not care about the district contest.