Long term, what blue states does the GOP have potential in?

[Sol]

Rhode Island is on borrowed time.

I think it's pretty plausible that Rhode Island moves to the right, but borrowed time--implying that it would flip--is a bit of a stretch imo.

[Sol]

NJ has the potential of a Pub snap back if the salience of economic issues waxes, and cultural issues wanes. NJ is not a woke state.

Jersey has a lot of educated suburbs that vote Dem, but it also has a lot of gritty postindustrial urban centers filled with poor immigrants and lower-middle class suburbanites--which would stay or even move more Dem in this scenario.

[Sol]

NJ has the potential of a Pub snap back if the salience of economic issues waxes, and cultural issues wanes. NJ is not a woke state.

Jersey has a lot of educated suburbs that vote Dem, but it also has a lot of gritty postindustrial urban centers filled with poor immigrants and lower-middle class suburbanites--which would stay or even move more Dem in this scenario.

Would you consider Union City and the Jersey City highlands such gritty places?

My understanding is that that description characterizes the recent past of quite a bit of Hudson County accurately, but is much less applicable to the present as the area gentrifies, as you'd know. Still plenty of places where that's more accurate though--thinking of Paterson, Trenton, Perth Amboy, etc.

[Sol]

Also since Illinois was mentioned, I think Hawaii is state that could swing to the right. Hawaii is not that culturally liberal.

Plus it’s very homogenous, making it easier for a large rightwards shift to happen

Hawai‘i's not a homogenous state at all unless you're just looking at diversity in terms of census racial data. Asian-Americans in Hawai‘i are a very diverse community with many different historic waves of immigration and some notable political cultural cleavages. The swing to Trump in parts of Western O‘ahu and in the Western urban core of Honolulu was correlated with Filipino-American ancestry, for example (I think both of these also correspond with income though I could be wrong).

There a decently large number of Micronesians in Hawai'i too; only Arkansas is a bigger destination for people from the Marshall Islands.

Even white people in Hawai'i have some unusual demographics; the state is about 4% Portuguese-American, higher than Massachussetts.