Long term, what blue states does the GOP have potential in? (user search)
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  Long term, what blue states does the GOP have potential in? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Long term, what blue states does the GOP have potential in?  (Read 845 times)
Skill and Chance
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,458
« on: June 22, 2022, 07:22:47 PM »

NM, NJ, and IL with the Hispanic trend.  They could also reasonably have the strength to deny supermajorities in CA and NY in a few years. 
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Skill and Chance
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,458
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2022, 09:11:54 AM »


I think it's pretty plausible that Rhode Island moves to the right, but borrowed time--implying that it would flip--is a bit of a stretch imo.

The main issue with this imo is it implies the gop would be winning back educated northeastern suburbs since 80% of RI is greater Providence or affluent liberal coastline communities.

I can't make up my mind about New England.  On the one hand, almost everyone went to college  when compared to other states/regions.  On the other hand, Dems are so massively overperforming with middle class white voters and in rural areas, that I have to wonder if it eventually comes in line with the national average, in which case everything but MA and maybe CT flips.  It's the inverse of the GOP lead in MS and LA.  There's a good reason for the states behaving differently, but you wonder if something has to give eventually.
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