NJ has the potential of a Pub snap back if the salience of economic issues waxes, and cultural issues wanes. NJ is not a woke state.
Jersey has a lot of educated suburbs that vote Dem, but it also has a lot of gritty postindustrial urban centers filled with poor immigrants and lower-middle class suburbanites--which would stay or even move more Dem in this scenario.
NJ has a lot of moving parts. Part of the reason it didn’t trended D was that not that much of the White population is Anglo. Reform Jews can’t get that much more Democratic and Italian and other Southern Europeans have a culturally conservative orientation even if they might be educated. This is why Bergen County has not become an extreme blowout. It’s not that hard to see NJ becoming D+8 instead of D+12, but the NJ GOP would have to capture all possible trends to make it truly competitive, which can’t really happen. They can’t really gain strongly among Morris County WASPs and urban Hispanics. Their best bet is that non Trump populists can continue to gain in South Jersey and with non White voters without losing too many SALT enthusiasts.
