Long term, what blue states does the GOP have potential in?

[Torie]

You are assuming the coalitions  will not change. I consider them, if not in the short term, at least in the medium term, having an unusually flat bell curve, and thus unusually uncertain. I find myself tending to bounce the walls some on my way out.

[Torie]

NJ has the potential of a Pub snap back if the salience of economic issues waxes, and cultural issues wanes. NJ is not a woke state.

[Torie]

NJ has the potential of a Pub snap back if the salience of economic issues waxes, and cultural issues wanes. NJ is not a woke state.

Jersey has a lot of educated suburbs that vote Dem, but it also has a lot of gritty postindustrial urban centers filled with poor immigrants and lower-middle class suburbanites--which would stay or even move more Dem in this scenario.

Would you consider Union City and the Jersey City highlands such gritty places?

[Torie]

NJ has the potential of a Pub snap back if the salience of economic issues waxes, and cultural issues wanes. NJ is not a woke state.

Jersey has a lot of educated suburbs that vote Dem, but it also has a lot of gritty postindustrial urban centers filled with poor immigrants and lower-middle class suburbanites--which would stay or even move more Dem in this scenario.

Would you consider Union City and the Jersey City highlands such gritty places?

My understanding is that that description characterizes the recent past of quite a bit of Hudson County accurately, but is much less applicable to the present as the area gentrifies, as you'd know. Still plenty of places where that's more accurate though--thinking of Paterson, Trenton, Perth Amboy, etc.

Haven't been to those places, but I have, up close and personal, walking the dog, in those other places. What I see is neighborhoods that appear clean and safe, even if much of the housing looks modest,  comprised of hard working working class immigrants that seem happy and optimistic, and doing well. Many adore the dog, and their kids want to pet him. Another way to put it, is what I see are upwardly mobile folks, and their kids.

[Torie]

You think the Journal Square area is sketchy? Just asking. I have not walked it, just driven through. South Jersey City does get a bit rough though.

[Torie]

Thanks guys. Good discussion.