FabrizioWard (R)/Impact (D) poll of PENNSYLVANIA: Fetterman +6
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  FabrizioWard (R)/Impact (D) poll of PENNSYLVANIA: Fetterman +6
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Author Topic: FabrizioWard (R)/Impact (D) poll of PENNSYLVANIA: Fetterman +6  (Read 878 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: June 22, 2022, 03:36:10 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2022, 03:38:37 PM »

Favorabilities confirm the USAT/Suffolk poll.

Terrible poll for Biden with 36/61 approval, so Fetterman really strongly outperforming him here.

Also thank god for 94% total decided. Way better than the Suffolk one with 10%+ undecided.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2022, 03:41:51 PM »

Lmao, Lean Democratic at least. If Republicans can't even lead with such Biden approvals, it means that they nominated terrible candidates and Democrats nominated great candidates.

I'd still take nothing for granted as the election is just in five months. Momentum in Pennsylvania is definitely on Shapiro's and Fetterman's side for now, which is also reflected in fundraising numbers.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2022, 03:43:01 PM »

Oz -33 favorability is a big hill to climb.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2022, 03:44:12 PM »

Lmao, Lean Democratic at least. If Republicans can't even lead with such Biden approvals, it means that they nominated terrible candidates and Democrats nominated great candidates.

I'd still take nothing for granted as the election is just in five months. Momentum in Pennsylvania is definitely on Shapiro's and Fetterman's side for now, which is also reflected in fundraising numbers.
Mastriano, widely regarded as insane, is within 3 points of Shapiro and Republican waves typically peak in the fall..

Hm, interesting to suggest momentum is on Shapiro's side.
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2022, 03:44:38 PM »

Amazing that he's +6 when Scranton Joe is -25.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2022, 03:45:45 PM »

Poll sponsored by AARP. Crosstabs.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-pennsylvania-2022-elections-voter-survey.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.003.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2022, 03:47:52 PM »

Lmao, Lean Democratic at least. If Republicans can't even lead with such Biden approvals, it means that they nominated terrible candidates and Democrats nominated great candidates.

I'd still take nothing for granted as the election is just in five months. Momentum in Pennsylvania is definitely on Shapiro's and Fetterman's side for now, which is also reflected in fundraising numbers.
Mastriano, widely regarded as insane, is within 3 points of Shapiro and Republican waves typically peak in the fall..

Hm, interesting to suggest momentum is on Shapiro's side.

Widely regarded as insane to people who know him. There's quite a bit of people at this point who probably think he's just generic R.

Not to mention, Mastriano is leading Indies by 18% which seems.... incredibly unlikely.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2022, 03:57:02 PM »

If polls are somewhat underestimating Republicans as they have in PA the past several cycles, it's actually going to be a Fetterman/Mastriano victory LOL
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2022, 03:57:23 PM »

Even if Oz blows it, I find it hard to see him losing by more than a point or two. Tilt R for now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2022, 03:58:18 PM »

Biden is gonna Discharge 10K Student Loans that should help D's and inflation should come down in the Fall and then we have the insurrection Commission, Trump is gonna be INDICTED BUT WHEN, he is egging the Prosecutor on in GA and DC
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2022, 03:59:18 PM »

If polls are somewhat underestimating Republicans as they have in PA the past several cycles, it's actually going to be a Fetterman/Mastriano victory LOL

RCP average was actually pretty spot on in 2020

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2022, 04:00:09 PM »

If polls are somewhat underestimating Republicans as they have in PA the past several cycles, it's actually going to be a Fetterman/Mastriano victory LOL

Why do users keep saying this won 303 blue wall in 2020 with Blk and Brown votes the polls in OH, KY, OK, TX, FL, IA and NC are underpolled Blk and Brown and Female

McGrath and Harrison were only four down on EDay before Same day vote came in because I changed my user prediction from McConnell to McGrath
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2022, 04:02:23 PM »

If polls are somewhat underestimating Republicans as they have in PA the past several cycles, it's actually going to be a Fetterman/Mastriano victory LOL

(Perceived) (in)authenticity is one hell of a drug. Oz is a transparent fraud, Fetterman and Mastriano seem sincere.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2022, 04:13:20 PM »

If polls are somewhat underestimating Republicans as they have in PA the past several cycles, it's actually going to be a Fetterman/Mastriano victory LOL

RCP average was actually pretty spot on in 2020

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

They intentionally exclude a lot of the most Dem-leaning polling.  Look at 538.
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2022, 04:43:05 PM »

Did you guys look at the crosstabs? Oz is +12 with indies, he's probably going to win this (although he's a bad enough candidate he could easily lose).
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kwabbit
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2022, 04:43:59 PM »

Tossup and Tossup. Mastriano is in better standing than I would've thought; the Gov has remained in tossup. The Senate has gone from Lean R to Tossup. Oz has some terrible favorability numbers. They should improve with some Republican consolidation, but they're bad enough I doubt they're going to be better than -10 by election day. Biden -25 approval is impressively bad too.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2022, 05:29:11 PM »

Tossup and Tossup. Mastriano is in better standing than I would've thought; the Gov has remained in tossup. The Senate has gone from Lean R to Tossup. Oz has some terrible favorability numbers. They should improve with some Republican consolidation, but they're bad enough I doubt they're going to be better than -10 by election day. Biden -25 approval is impressively bad too.

Trump had the same Approvals and Biden is at 44% the You Gov and Morning Consult have it

Approvals Lie we aren't gonna know until we vote these are PRE ELECTION POLLS NOT RESULTS
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kwabbit
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2022, 05:30:16 PM »

Tossup and Tossup. Mastriano is in better standing than I would've thought; the Gov has remained in tossup. The Senate has gone from Lean R to Tossup. Oz has some terrible favorability numbers. They should improve with some Republican consolidation, but they're bad enough I doubt they're going to be better than -10 by election day. Biden -25 approval is impressively bad too.

Trump had the same Approvals and Biden is at 44% the You Gov and Morning Consult have it

Approvals Lie we aren't gonna know until we vote these are PRE ELECTION POLLS NOT RESULTS

Agreed.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2022, 06:18:10 PM »

Oz mostly just has problems with consolidating his base.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2022, 06:25:58 PM »

Oz mostly just has problems with consolidating his base.

This is actually not true; Oz is doing 6 points worse than Mastriano among both independents and Republicans in this poll.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2022, 07:46:58 PM »

Oz mostly just has problems with consolidating his base.

The poll numbers show 60% of voters have a negative opinion of him. You can win with 30% of the vote.
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OneJ
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« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2022, 08:00:10 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2022, 08:16:05 PM by OneJ »

*Oz is at just +15 favorability among Republicans. Mastriano's at +56.
*Fetterman's getting 13% of Republicans and Shapiro's getting 11% of them.
*Fetterman has a -4 favorability among Independents vs. Oz's -26.
*Shapiro's -9 among Independents vs. Mastriano's +0 (38-38).

Also, note that Fetterman's hitting 50 here...Oz still has time to fix this but this you can't deny that Oz isn't a good candidate.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2022, 07:58:08 AM »

Did you guys look at the crosstabs? Oz is +12 with indies, he's probably going to win this (although he's a bad enough candidate he could easily lose).

we've already talked about this a couple times in this thread. is it so hard for people to just read prior posts?

the sample for Indies is likely very small here, so take the # with a grain of salt. this result is very different from the Suffolk result, likely a result of both being small sample sizes
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windjammer
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« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2022, 09:00:00 AM »

The republicans are probably going to win this.

But let's be honest, if the latinos move a lot to the right, it's not going to affect PA particularly
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