MN-01 Special, Expedition Strategies (Ettinger internal): Finstad (R) +1
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  MN-01 Special, Expedition Strategies (Ettinger internal): Finstad (R) +1
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Author Topic: MN-01 Special, Expedition Strategies (Ettinger internal): Finstad (R) +1  (Read 244 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: June 23, 2022, 06:37:02 PM »

Finstad 48
Ettinger 47

https://www.scribd.com/document/579258412/MN-01-Poll-Results-Memo-Ettinger-Campaign
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2022, 07:00:22 PM »

doubt

though it would be kind of amusing if dems managed to take this district back
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MargieCat
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2022, 07:09:32 PM »

The primary will be the same day as the special.

Any chance of a split decision? Like Finstad winning the special but Munson winning the primary.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2022, 07:19:55 PM »

The primary will be the same day as the special.

Any chance of a split decision? Like Finstad winning the special but Munson winning the primary.

No. My understanding is Munson only filed for the regular election for campaign finance reasons, if he didn't file he would have to return some of the money he raised and already has spent. 
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2022, 07:23:07 PM »

This race is still likely Finstad but as I have been saying all along it's going to be closer than the general consensus. Single digit race IMO.
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wifikitten
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2022, 07:29:32 PM »

Not including the Legal Marijuana Now and Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidates on the poll make it kind of junky given the success of those two parties in Minnesota. Grassroots got 5.8% in this district in the 2020 election.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2022, 07:46:59 PM »

Not including the Legal Marijuana Now and Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidates on the poll make it kind of junky given the success of those two parties in Minnesota. Grassroots got 5.8% in this district in the 2020 election.

Not sure what kind of turnout the pot parties are going to have in a low turnout Aug special. Normally the pot party voters are people who show up for another race (president in 2020) and really do not care about the district contest.
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The sun fell down again last night on my anger
BRTD
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2022, 11:00:54 PM »

Not including the Legal Marijuana Now and Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidates on the poll make it kind of junky given the success of those two parties in Minnesota. Grassroots got 5.8% in this district in the 2020 election.
As I've explained before, those parties are really just a generic "someone else" option for protest votes and not really based around marijuana-obsessed voters, and as Mike noted thus mostly just attract votes from people who voted for other races, (for example look at the 2020 Senate race, they clearly took just as many votes from Trump voters as Biden ones and clearly more outstate) so there probably won't be much support for them for a special election. Yes the primary is the same day but people showing up for that will mostly be die-hard partisans.

This race is still likely Finstad but as I have been saying all along it's going to be closer than the general consensus. Single digit race IMO.

Yeah I think a lot of people don't understand how polarized this district is. Rochester and the college towns give the DFL a much higher floor than you'd expect in such a seat.
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