WI-SEN (Marquette): Barnes +2 / close races

[wesmoorenerd]

Two things can be true simultaneously:

1. Based on the fundamentals and recent polling mishaps in WI, Johnson is still probably favored.

2. This race is in no way Safe R and the fact that people are dropping it from their Senate calculations is foolish.

[YE]

Can’t wait for Democrats to lead in all polls except the week before the election when they show a tie only to lose by a fair margin.

[wesmoorenerd]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

I mean, yeah, the GOP's candidates in the most competitive races include a man exhibiting severe brain damage, a literal snake oil salesman, a Kaczynski-shilling crypto bro, and a Jan 6 insurrectionist. More often than not they're running the dregs of American society.

[Gracile]

Can’t wait for Democrats to lead in all polls except the week before the election when they show a tie only to lose by a fair margin.

Well, these results show a statistical tie already.

[Politician]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

I mean, yeah, the GOP's candidates in the most competitive races include a man exhibiting severe brain damage, a literal snake oil salesman, a Kaczynski-shilling crypto bro, and a Jan 6 insurrectionist. More often than not they're running the dregs of American society.

Calling Johnson an "insurrectionist" is hypocritical of your part, considering you openly condoned pro-choice violence and many of your ilk suggested the 2016/2004/2000 elections were rigged.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

I mean, yeah, the GOP's candidates in the most competitive races include a man exhibiting severe brain damage, a literal snake oil salesman, a Kaczynski-shilling crypto bro, and a Jan 6 insurrectionist. More often than not they're running the dregs of American society.

Calling Johnson an "insurrectionist" is hypocritical of your part, considering you openly condoned pro-choice violence and many of your ilk suggested the 2016/2004/2000 elections were rigged.

Bad post.

[wesmoorenerd]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

I mean, yeah, the GOP's candidates in the most competitive races include a man exhibiting severe brain damage, a literal snake oil salesman, a Kaczynski-shilling crypto bro, and a Jan 6 insurrectionist. More often than not they're running the dregs of American society.

Calling Johnson an "insurrectionist" is hypocritical of your part, considering you openly condoned pro-choice violence and many of your ilk suggested the 2016/2004/2000 elections were rigged.

I wouldn't be a good candidate either.

[MT Treasurer]

Obligatory -

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs maybe favored in the H because of TX/FL and D's are favored on the S due to WI/PA but we are leading or tied in OH, NC and FL and we are 3/6 pts behind in IA, MO and TX

Ryan 44/41 over Vance
Beasly 44/40 over Budd
Beto five down in TX
Crist 51/49 over DeSantis
Kunce 6 behind Greitans
Franken 3 behind Grassley

Then there is Kendra Horn and Charles Booker

But, some users maps like Progressive Moderate says that Rs are winning 54Sen seats and 241H says Solid, NOT

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

Maybe the GOP should not try and keep outdoing themselves with all of these horrific candidates in WI, MI, and PA then.

[wbrocks67]

Obligatory -

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

There's a middle ground here. No one is saying that Barnes is the favorite or Johnson can't win.

But again, the GOP candidates ARE far-right and ARE more extreme than they should be for their states, so that should be worth nothing, and IS important.

[President Johnson]

Still think RoJo is going to win by around five or six, though him losing would be great and fully earned.

[GALeftist]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

DeSantis, Rubio, Drazan, Budd, Kleefisch, Schmidt, Scott and Sununu, a litany of House candidates including Valadao and Garcia – I haven't seen anyone call these candidates bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The polling industry is dead. Go with the fundamentals. The undecideds are heavily GOP.

If you believe the polling industry is dead, why do you comment on so many polls?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

DeSantis, Rubio, Drazan, Budd, Kleefisch, Schmidt, Scott and Sununu, a litany of House candidates including Valadao and Garcia – I haven't seen anyone call these candidates bad.

Most of those are incumbents, and some like Rubio, Scott and Sununu are in safe races.

[wesmoorenerd]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

DeSantis, Rubio, Drazan, Budd, Kleefisch, Schmidt, Scott and Sununu, a litany of House candidates including Valadao and Garcia – I haven't seen anyone call these candidates bad.

Most of those are incumbents, and some like Rubio, Scott and Sununu are in safe races.

Okay, but Rubio/Scott/Sununu wouldn't be in safe races if they weren't good candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

DeSantis, Rubio, Drazan, Budd, Kleefisch, Schmidt, Scott and Sununu, a litany of House candidates including Valadao and Garcia – I haven't seen anyone call these candidates bad.

Most of those are incumbents, and some like Rubio, Scott and Sununu are in safe races.

Rubio and Scott aren't in safe states if Rubio is only six pts ahead and Crist is leading by 51/49

[UncleSam]

Obligatory -

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

There's a middle ground here. No one is saying that Barnes is the favorite or Johnson can't win.

But again, the GOP candidates ARE far-right and ARE more extreme than they should be for their states, so that should be worth nothing, and IS important.

Disagree tbh. Oz is definitely not ‘far right’, and honestly Johnson is basically the median R senator. Whoever comes out of the AZ primary is very likely to be a true nut job and Mastriano is straight up insane, but most of the other ‘weak’ R senate or Governor candidates are really not weak at all as far as I can tell. Maybe Walker is but that’s because he can’t formulate a sentence, not because anybody is going to care how many children he has come November.

This board loves to paint practically any R candidate in a swing state as a hard-right neonazi with extremist views, while their Dem counterparts are either moderate heros (like Kelly) or progressive lions with ‘strong grassroots appeal’ (like Fetterman).

Now I do think that Dems probably have better candidates on average across the swing state races than Rs do. However, the gal isn’t nearly as large as most on here want to portray, and I really don’t think some here understand that if the environment swings where most trend lines / indicators point (I.e. R+5-7), then Dems aren’t going to be able to hold many / any of these swing state seats. Candidate quality just isn’t going to matter in that case.

If Rs win the national vote by 5, they win PA and WI, the latter potentially by double digits. For reference, in 2021, they won it by 9.

[GALeftist]

Obligatory -

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

There's a middle ground here. No one is saying that Barnes is the favorite or Johnson can't win.

But again, the GOP candidates ARE far-right and ARE more extreme than they should be for their states, so that should be worth nothing, and IS important.

Disagree tbh. Oz is definitely not ‘far right’, and honestly Johnson is basically the median R senator. Whoever comes out of the AZ primary is very likely to be a true nut job and Mastriano is straight up insane, but most of the other ‘weak’ R senate or Governor candidates are really not weak at all as far as I can tell. Maybe Walker is but that’s because he can’t formulate a sentence, not because anybody is going to care how many children he has come November.

This board loves to paint practically any R candidate in a swing state as a hard-right neonazi with extremist views, while their Dem counterparts are either moderate heros (like Kelly) or progressive lions with ‘strong grassroots appeal’ (like Fetterman).

Now I do think that Dems probably have better candidates on average across the swing state races than Rs do. However, the gal isn’t nearly as large as most on here want to portray, and I really don’t think some here understand that if the environment swings where most trend lines / indicators point (I.e. R+5-7), then Dems aren’t going to be able to hold many / any of these swing state seats. Candidate quality just isn’t going to matter in that case.

If Rs win the national vote by 5, they win PA and WI, the latter potentially by double digits. For reference, in 2021, they won it by 9.

In 2009, McDonnell won Obama+6 Virginia by 17 and Christie won Obama+16 New Jersey by 4. This indicates a shift right from 2008 of about 21 points or so, if you split the difference. The nation was Obama+7 in 2008, so someone in early 2010 might have similarly predicted a GOP+14 environment, but ultimately it was GOP+7, and Rs lost a number of close races: CO-SEN, CO-GOV, NV-SEN, DE-SEN, and MN-GOV are a few examples. Some of these races, particularly NV and DE, were even famously blown due to poor candidate selection. Extrapolating from off year elections and predicting that one party sweeps the close races because of that is just a bad idea.

[DrScholl]

Johnson is so safe he doesn't even have to campaign. The NRCC should spend all their money in California where Padilla is vulnerable due to Starr County, Texas.

[Xing]

Definitely not buying this, at least not unless there is more substantial evidence of a better environment, though I don’t think Johnson will win by a particularly lopsided margin, either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Definitely not buying this, at least not unless there is more substantial evidence of a better environment, though I don’t think Johnson will win by a particularly lopsided margin, either.

Lol your R nut map isn't happening , I don't believe the NC poll that has Beasley behind not AHEAD

You and Icespear said Beshear was gonna LOSE

[Yoda]

I’m a bit skeptical to be honest

Barnes is not a good GE candidate and Johnson is an incumbent

Don't know anything about Barnes really but Johnson isn't a good GE candidate either. He's in that seat b/c he had the good fortune of running in 2010 and then in '16 Jim Comey saved his a** with the Clinton email memo that should never have been put out so close to an election. Neither of his wins were anything close to strong. He's a lucky buffoon.

[SnowLabrador]

Johnson's also lucky this year that Biden is President and Putin invaded Ukraine.

[President Johnson]

Johnson's also lucky this year that Biden is President and Putin invaded Ukraine.

Would you consider him favored in a Trump midterm as well?