WI-GOV (Marquette): Evers leads all opponents (user search)
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  WI-GOV (Marquette): Evers leads all opponents (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI-GOV (Marquette): Evers leads all opponents  (Read 1631 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: June 22, 2022, 01:52:48 PM »

I am so glad we finally got one😊😊😊303 FREIWAL
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2022, 03:37:01 PM »

This poll also has johnson trailing all dems…..

Color me skeptical

Personally, I think the gop wins both Wisconsin races by about 2 points

How is Johnson trailing Dems (not all of them) unbelievable? He is a terrible candidate.

When the party in power in America has a president with a 38% approval rating and 75%+ of Americans are unhappy with the economy, generally that means the president’s party is going to have a tough time

Yes, you're correct, but there's other things at play here too. Evers is a mildly popular incumbent (48/45 approval here) in a more polarized time, compared with more radical GOP opponents. Same thing with Dem side where Johnson is much more extreme and out of touch with a swing-state than before.

Same reason why some GOP senators won in 2018 despite the blue wave. Certain state situations will still overpower the national headwinds. Candidate quality also matters a lot.

But current polling will have us believe Ohio and North Carolina are going to be dem wins in the senate, which is just absolutely absurd in my view

And 2018 in the senate was great for dems

They only lost red states  like Indiana and Missouri by 6-7 points

Don't forget Trump won H seats at 44 approval ratings in 2020 and we lost IN, MO and FL, ND  but gained AZ and NV in 2018

Pelosi said this how did Trump net gained H seats in 2020 and he has the same Approvals as Biden D's were expecting to gain a Supermajority H 241 Seats due to Trump 44 ironically Rs are expecting to win 54S Senates and 241 H seats in 22
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2022, 11:46:30 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 11:49:38 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Why do users argue over the 3o3 blue Wall the same person is gonna reaffirm the blue wall the Sen is gonna stay D the question is the H are we gonna win OH or FL to keep the H as wave insurance

Ryan, Crist, Kelly, CCM and Hassan are tied or leading Beasley was ahead but she is behind

It's a broken record everytime there is a D leaf in a blue not red STATES
We are gonna keep the blue wall in 24 too, as my signature shows
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2022, 04:00:29 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 04:10:23 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

This poll also has johnson trailing all dems…..

Color me skeptical

Personally, I think the gop wins both Wisconsin races by about 2 points

How is Johnson trailing Dems (not all of them) unbelievable? He is a terrible candidate.

When the party in power in America has a president with a 38% approval rating and 75%+ of Americans are unhappy with the economy, generally that means the president’s party is going to have a tough time

Yes, you're correct, but there's other things at play here too. Evers is a mildly popular incumbent (48/45 approval here) in a more polarized time, compared with more radical GOP opponents. Same thing with Dem side where Johnson is much more extreme and out of touch with a swing-state than before.

Same reason why some GOP senators won in 2018 despite the blue wave. Certain state situations will still overpower the national headwinds. Candidate quality also matters a lot.

But current polling will have us believe Ohio and North Carolina are going to be dem wins in the senate, which is just absolutely absurd in my view

And 2018 in the senate was great for dems

They only lost red states  like Indiana and Missouri by 6-7 points

Dems winning with 40% is believable. The undecideds will swing so what it really means is that Tim Ryan will get 42-44% of the vote.

JD Vance was at 39/41% in those two POLLS

Look Demings, and Beasley and Abrams and Laura Kelly are underdogs all our Female candidates lost in red states and 1 in a blue state in 202o Greenfield, Boiler, Gideon and Fink, WC men win that's why Ryan, and Crist are ahead and Beshear will win too in 2023 , that's why we will keep the Senate in 2022 with 53 or 54 votes depends on GA and LA we will net WI, PA and OH

Afro Americans are 12% in OH and Vance looks like Eric Trump and get Kenneth Blackwell numbers with Blks while DeWine gets 33% or 50% of Blk vote like Renacci v Brown in 2018, Renacci got 1% of Blks and DeWine got 33% of Blks, Vance will get 1% of Blks
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2022, 03:17:17 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2022, 03:22:25 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, and is therefore trash.

MQK poll is the most accurate pollster Johnson doesn't have a 60 percent Approvals he is underwater like Toomey it's not Trash but the Gov poll Evers is gonna win by 51/49 and so will BARNES , we won WI on every election except 2016


It's within the MOE either way so it doesn't matter, its gonna be close Johnson isn't winning by 20

How Rs love to cherry pick polls what about the polls MI showing James ahead that's Trash because noway Jame's is winning by 9 pts in MI and Whitmer is leading by such a wide margin
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2022, 11:40:51 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2022, 11:45:00 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, and is therefore trash.

Translation: "It's trash because I don't like it."

It's a bit early for LV polls since there are 5 months left. That said, polling has been flawed in recent cycles and underestimated GOP support, especially in states like WI, so I'm not saying Evers is a shoe-in for reelection. It's a tossup.

Do you not see this being a problem with engagement being far higher for R’s than D’s? You gov had the generic ballot being consistently D +2-3 and now that they started screening for likely voters it’s R+4

Lol, every other week the GCB flips from R to D I won't believe the GCB until October

Morning Consult just had D's ahead and then Rassy still has Rs plus 8

Do you know it's not based on GCB it's based on Turnout guess what the Turnout was in 2010/2014 95M votes since 2014, it's been 65/60M and in 2020 it was 80/75M if you go on Election results since 2006 except for R wave yrs D's have averaged 65/60M over Rs that means 303 which Obama won over Romney in 2012 AZ, NV, PA, WI, GA and MI and CO and VA
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2022, 11:53:16 AM »

Just follow the 2012 results 65/60M, we are gonna get close to that with 300M people 303 AZ, VA, CO, WI, MI and PA, you won't go wrong. I want wave insurance seats so badly that's why I make nut maps, it's a blog and we can make our prediction whatever way we want

I know it's a 303 map but it's a 538 map too not just 303
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2022, 12:39:36 PM »

This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, and is therefore trash.

Translation: "It's trash because I don't like it."

It's a bit early for LV polls since there are 5 months left. That said, polling has been flawed in recent cycles and underestimated GOP support, especially in states like WI, so I'm not saying Evers is a shoe-in for reelection. It's a tossup.

Not at all. Evers may well be up, and I'm not particularly invested in this race. It's trash because RV polls are trash. In 2020, a presidential election year, and in fact the one with the highest turnout in modern history, around 60% of registered voters actually voted. That number will be far lower in an off-year election. RV polls are trash because they sample a group of people of whom over half are unlikely to actually cast ballots.


It's not trash because the states that have Rs ahead in like in MI and NY and the 33%QU polls that had Biden Approvals are RV too
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,746
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2022, 12:40:58 PM »

Not buying this yet, though similar to the Senate race, I don’t think this will end up being a particularly lopsided win for Republicans.

Do you know Ron Johnson isn't at 60% Approvals he is underwater like Toomey is at 37%, he is going to Lose, why do you think Toomey retired he has underwater Approvals like Johnson

Users rate Johnson chance overrated he is underwater
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