When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24. (user search)
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  When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24. (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will the djia hit a new high before 1/1/2024?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 25

Author Topic: When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24.  (Read 8651 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: June 30, 2022, 08:18:04 AM »

So far in 2022 over 50% of trading days are greater thant 1% swings.  Over the last 30 years only 2008 saw such numbers of large trade swings. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2022, 06:54:15 AM »

The fact that equity markets are down a lot this year is not surprising.  The fact that the equity market is down a lot AND the bond market had the worst first half of the year for a very long time is the bigger surprise.  For investors the first half of 2022 there is no place to run other than cash and that is down over 7% on a real basis due to inflation.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2022, 01:59:00 PM »

I think medium-run deflationary pressures will reappear.  Over the next few months as the Fed raises rates I am going to plow into medium and long-term corporate bonds.  I am about to go into semi-retirement so I need to be more fixed income heavy and this inflationary surge followed by the revival of real bond returns is wonderful.  When deflation comes and my medium and long-term corporate bonds it would be a bonanza.  During the late 1980s even as someone in high school, I was already really into finance and I convinced (to be fair they mostly convinced themselves) my parents who were starting to plan for retirement into plowing a lot of their assets into various retirement whole life insurance products which had a "floor" return of 6% with some constraints on withdrawal.  The 6% floor was based on the fact that interest rates were high after a surge of inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  It was the greatest investment my parents made since inflation and interest rates fell a lot right after that which they are still benefiting from today.  With my age getting to be around the same as what my parents were I am hoping to repeat their victory. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2022, 10:40:57 AM »

10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 15.9%.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2022, 09:07:37 AM »

I see this chart being circulated.  A bum rap.  I do not like Fauci and his prescribed policies (I was against masks and lockdowns on day one and refused to wear masks from the beginning) but this is not a fair attack on Fauci.  This graph looks very typical of people in my neighborhood and none of them had any "connections" to get rich from any COVID-19 lockdowns.  This graph speaks to the monetary-driven asset bubble that was created in 2020 and 2021.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2022, 06:37:27 AM »

The slow Credit Suisse crisis continues to build up. If it goes down it might be a mini version of 2008.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2022, 08:44:17 AM »

This is just a very ugly year to be an investor. I can only hope my 401k buys every 2 weeks will pay off in the years to come. I suspect it will.

For me, 2020 and 2021 were years of financial success way beyond imagination.   2020, especially for me, financially will be Annus Mirabilis.  Since then inflation and the big market drop have already eaten up half my gains from 2020 and 2021.  Even if all my gains are wiped out it is worth it to get interest rate normalization since most of those gains were just part of this COVID-19-related fiscal and monetary bubble.  For me and many people in my age group, solid after-inflation fixed-income returns are critical to our long-term financial health.  From a long-game point of view, 2022 is a good year despite short-term losses. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2022, 08:56:17 AM »

The large gyrations in the market over the last few weeks are not a good sign.  Usually, this signals that we are in a bear market and will stay there for a while.  Hopefully, I am wrong.
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