When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24.
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  When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24.
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Poll
Question: Will the djia hit a new high before 1/1/2024?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
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Total Voters: 25

Author Topic: When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24.  (Read 8646 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« on: June 21, 2022, 07:43:06 AM »
« edited: December 13, 2023, 04:51:37 PM by °over 20 years on the forum »

The all time high is 36,799.65.
Will it close above that in 2022 or 2023?
It is currently at 29888.78

as of 11:05 36,175.33
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2022, 10:41:00 PM »

It has to go up at some point after a recession, so if not that it’ll hit it at some point in 2024. I expect the recession to be a fairly minor one, so it’s effects aren’t even comparable to 2008 in any meaningful way.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2022, 09:41:53 AM »

Hmm, I don't expect stocks to bottom out until the Fed goes back into monetary easing mode.  Sometime during 2024 could be a possibility
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2022, 12:20:56 PM »

It has to go up at some point after a recession, so if not that it’ll hit it at some point in 2024. I expect the recession to be a fairly minor one, so it’s effects aren’t even comparable to 2008 in any meaningful way.


Probably closer to the Saving and Loans crisis or the IT/9/11 recession?
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2022, 12:38:54 PM »

It has to go up at some point after a recession, so if not that it’ll hit it at some point in 2024. I expect the recession to be a fairly minor one, so it’s effects aren’t even comparable to 2008 in any meaningful way.


Probably closer to the Saving and Loans crisis or the IT/9/11 recession?
Yeah, it reminds me of that.
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2022, 08:18:04 AM »

So far in 2022 over 50% of trading days are greater thant 1% swings.  Over the last 30 years only 2008 saw such numbers of large trade swings. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2022, 06:54:15 AM »

The fact that equity markets are down a lot this year is not surprising.  The fact that the equity market is down a lot AND the bond market had the worst first half of the year for a very long time is the bigger surprise.  For investors the first half of 2022 there is no place to run other than cash and that is down over 7% on a real basis due to inflation.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2022, 08:50:52 AM »

Well the market is about halfway to its previous high in the two months or so since the question was posited. Market predictions deviating from the expected rate of return are largely a fool's errand in my opinion. I just don't go there. I stay the course.

But there can be variations on a theme. When you could get 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 2% that was a fantastic bargain, albeit involving some subsidies via fannie mae or whatever it is called buying the damn things if conforming.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2022, 01:59:00 PM »

I think medium-run deflationary pressures will reappear.  Over the next few months as the Fed raises rates I am going to plow into medium and long-term corporate bonds.  I am about to go into semi-retirement so I need to be more fixed income heavy and this inflationary surge followed by the revival of real bond returns is wonderful.  When deflation comes and my medium and long-term corporate bonds it would be a bonanza.  During the late 1980s even as someone in high school, I was already really into finance and I convinced (to be fair they mostly convinced themselves) my parents who were starting to plan for retirement into plowing a lot of their assets into various retirement whole life insurance products which had a "floor" return of 6% with some constraints on withdrawal.  The 6% floor was based on the fact that interest rates were high after a surge of inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  It was the greatest investment my parents made since inflation and interest rates fell a lot right after that which they are still benefiting from today.  With my age getting to be around the same as what my parents were I am hoping to repeat their victory. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2022, 10:40:57 AM »

10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 15.9%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2022, 09:07:37 AM »

I see this chart being circulated.  A bum rap.  I do not like Fauci and his prescribed policies (I was against masks and lockdowns on day one and refused to wear masks from the beginning) but this is not a fair attack on Fauci.  This graph looks very typical of people in my neighborhood and none of them had any "connections" to get rich from any COVID-19 lockdowns.  This graph speaks to the monetary-driven asset bubble that was created in 2020 and 2021.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2022, 06:37:27 AM »

The slow Credit Suisse crisis continues to build up. If it goes down it might be a mini version of 2008.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2022, 02:44:31 PM »

This is just a very ugly year to be an investor. I can only hope my 401k buys every 2 weeks will pay off in the years to come. I suspect it will.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2022, 08:44:17 AM »

This is just a very ugly year to be an investor. I can only hope my 401k buys every 2 weeks will pay off in the years to come. I suspect it will.

For me, 2020 and 2021 were years of financial success way beyond imagination.   2020, especially for me, financially will be Annus Mirabilis.  Since then inflation and the big market drop have already eaten up half my gains from 2020 and 2021.  Even if all my gains are wiped out it is worth it to get interest rate normalization since most of those gains were just part of this COVID-19-related fiscal and monetary bubble.  For me and many people in my age group, solid after-inflation fixed-income returns are critical to our long-term financial health.  From a long-game point of view, 2022 is a good year despite short-term losses. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2022, 08:56:17 AM »

The large gyrations in the market over the last few weeks are not a good sign.  Usually, this signals that we are in a bear market and will stay there for a while.  Hopefully, I am wrong.
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2023, 11:33:28 AM »

Ytd averages ... If you add nasdaq, s&p 500, and djia and divide by three.
The average year to date is 7.41%

Perhaps that is meaningless and dumb, but my point is that the markets have gone up.
My guess is that the answer to the poll question is still yes and we may be having a recovery, but who really knows?
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2023, 06:26:08 PM »

I voted yes. At this point it may be about a 50 50 chance.
I tend to think that the answer is still yes.
If you voted would you change your vote?
If not, how would you vote?
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2023, 08:02:41 AM »

I'd still give it a 50 50.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2023, 02:32:33 PM »

At this point, it seems unlikely that the djia will hit a new high this year.
Not surprisingly, October is starting out badly.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2023, 03:36:33 PM »

At this point, it seems unlikely that the djia will hit a new high this year.
Not surprisingly, October is starting out badly.

The DOW was negative for the year as of yesterday. The highs for the year are in. The market is going nowhere with rates where they are.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2023, 08:43:36 AM »

A "yes" is still possible as of today, but probably unlikely. It should be interesting to watch for the rest of this year.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2023, 05:51:54 AM »

Back in June, I bought Gold and Silver for the first time in my life, and I also bought a couple of bitcoins at 27k.  Everything is else is in cash, aside for some speculative stocks.  I threw some money into Ford when it was at $11 and jumped out at $13.  Also, made a good sum on the Uranium explosion.  I'd love to know what stocks or sectors these Democrats are buying right now.  I'm genuinely curious. 

I have no doubt that the economic recession is coming.  I see it already with clients that are offering my company ownership in properties, because they aren't able to keep paying the interest rates, as well as the rising material costs and increased wages that we're passing off to these clients.  Renters are paying greater amounts to landlords, and some are getting kicked out in order to make room for AirBnBs.  There's no way this is sustainable.  It's like the market is sitting between two outcomes.  Either inflation blows-up cause the FED relaxes interest rates, or the market plummets from increased interest rates.  Are we landing softly or are we just taking that preliminary up-and-down at the top of a roller coaster before it plunges towards Earth? 
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2023, 11:30:40 AM »

Are we landing softly or are we just taking that preliminary up-and-down at the top of a roller coaster before it plunges towards Earth? 

My gut feeling says the former tbh, but with a notable housing market implosion somewhere from 2024-26.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2023, 08:56:07 PM »

A "yes" is still possible as of today, but probably unlikely. It should be interesting to watch for the rest of this year.
A yes may be more likely now than when I posted this.
Are we entering a bull market?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2023, 10:03:04 AM »

A "yes" is still possible as of today, but probably unlikely. It should be interesting to watch for the rest of this year.
A yes may be more likely now than when I posted this.
Are we entering a bull market?

I don't know. My small cap fund is really not taking off like you'd imagine it would at the beginning of a new bull market.
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