When will the DJIA hit an all time high? djia all time high 37090.24.
jaichind:
So far in 2022 over 50% of trading days are greater thant 1% swings. Over the last 30 years only 2008 saw such numbers of large trade swings.
jaichind:
The fact that equity markets are down a lot this year is not surprising. The fact that the equity market is down a lot AND the bond market had the worst first half of the year for a very long time is the bigger surprise. For investors the first half of 2022 there is no place to run other than cash and that is down over 7% on a real basis due to inflation.
Torie:
Well the market is about halfway to its previous high in the two months or so since the question was posited. Market predictions deviating from the expected rate of return are largely a fool's errand in my opinion. I just don't go there. I stay the course.
But there can be variations on a theme. When you could get 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 2% that was a fantastic bargain, albeit involving some subsidies via fannie mae or whatever it is called buying the damn things if conforming.
jaichind:
I think medium-run deflationary pressures will reappear. Over the next few months as the Fed raises rates I am going to plow into medium and long-term corporate bonds. I am about to go into semi-retirement so I need to be more fixed income heavy and this inflationary surge followed by the revival of real bond returns is wonderful. When deflation comes and my medium and long-term corporate bonds it would be a bonanza. During the late 1980s even as someone in high school, I was already really into finance and I convinced (to be fair they mostly convinced themselves) my parents who were starting to plan for retirement into plowing a lot of their assets into various retirement whole life insurance products which had a "floor" return of 6% with some constraints on withdrawal. The 6% floor was based on the fact that interest rates were high after a surge of inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It was the greatest investment my parents made since inflation and interest rates fell a lot right after that which they are still benefiting from today. With my age getting to be around the same as what my parents were I am hoping to repeat their victory.
jaichind:
10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 15.9%.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page