If after the 2012 election you are told:
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  If after the 2012 election you are told:
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Author Topic: If after the 2012 election you are told:  (Read 2044 times)
Pres Mike
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« on: March 27, 2022, 03:14:04 PM »

It’s Jan 21, 2013. Obama and Biden are both sworn in for a second term.

You are told Joe Biden is elected president in 2020. It’s his first term. He has never been president before.

What do you believe happened 2013-2020?

I would assume Hillary Clinton is elected in 2016 and runs for re-election. In summer 2020 he health declined dramatically and announced she isn’t running for re-election. It’s too late for primaries so the democrats have a contested convention in August.

Hillary VP isn’t popular enough to win the nomination outright and the party refuses to nominate Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. I expect dozens of other democrats to throw their hat in the ring. Biden is nominated as a compromise candidate.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2022, 05:21:54 PM »

Rand Paul wins in 2016 but libertarian policies dont work out in reality the same way they are in practice and that results in Biden defeating him
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2022, 06:17:08 PM »

Rand Paul wins in 2016 but libertarian policies dont work out in reality the same way they are in practice and that results in Biden defeating him
How would you explain Biden not running in 2016 but running in 2020?
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Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2022, 06:19:28 PM »

Rand Paul wins in 2016 but libertarian policies dont work out in reality the same way they are in practice and that results in Biden defeating him
How would you explain Biden not running in 2016 but running in 2020?

Hillary beats Biden in the primaries is my thought
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2022, 06:25:01 PM »

Rand Paul wins in 2016 but libertarian policies dont work out in reality the same way they are in practice and that results in Biden defeating him
How would you explain Biden not running in 2016 but running in 2020?

Hillary beats Biden in the primaries is my thought
That’s the most likely scenario

Or Biden is somehow a last minute compromise candidate
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2022, 11:14:56 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2022, 07:59:16 PM by TDAS04 »

Hillary losing the general election in 2016 would be most likely.  Then Biden, after either losing to Hillary in the primaries—or sitting out because he knows she’s heavily favored—decides to take one more shot at the top job.  The Republican president 2017-2021 doesn’t seem relevant.  I would have basically come up with the rl scenario.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2022, 08:30:01 PM »

Hillary losing the general election in 2016 would be most likely.  Then Biden, after either losing to Hillary in the primaries—or sitting out because he knows she’s heavily favored—decides to take one more shot at the top job.  The Republican president 2017-2021 doesn’t seem relevant.  I would have basically come of with the rl scenario.
In your mind
1. Wouldn’t Biden reputation be ruined? A sitting vice president losing the primary, how did he bounce back in 2020? Unless he had better general election polling than Hillary and lost a close primary. Which he spends four years saying “I should have been the nominee”. Which I guess is what happened?

2. If Biden did not run in 2016, why did he run in 2020 in your scenario?

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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2022, 04:43:36 PM »

Trump doesn't run in 2016 and Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination due to divided opposition. While Clinton doesn't bleed enough working class support to lose MI, PA, or WI, but manages to somehow run a worse general election campaign overall, which causes her to lose not only OH, IA, and ME 2nd (abet by narrower margins than she did against Trump), she also manages to, by a hair, lose NV and CO, while also outperforming Trump in FL, AZ, NC, and GA.

Cruz not being able to build a cult following leads to an even worse 2018 than with Trump, and a recession happening between late 2018 and mid 2020 causes enough suburban "Obama-Cruz" voters to vote Joe Biden, whom many believe would've defeated Cruz in 2016 had he not been talked out of running.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2022, 07:55:32 PM »

Trump doesn't run in 2016 and Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination due to divided opposition. While Clinton doesn't bleed enough working class support to lose MI, PA, or WI, but manages to somehow run a worse general election campaign overall, which causes her to lose not only OH, IA, and ME 2nd (abet by narrower margins than she did against Trump), she also manages to, by a hair, lose NV and CO, while also outperforming Trump in FL, AZ, NC, and GA.

Cruz not being able to build a cult following leads to an even worse 2018 than with Trump, and a recession happening between late 2018 and mid 2020 causes enough suburban "Obama-Cruz" voters to vote Joe Biden, whom many believe would've defeated Cruz in 2016 had he not been talked out of running.

Did anybody outside Texas even think of Ted Cruz in January 2013? I thought he only became famous because of the shutdown.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2022, 12:07:59 AM »

Hillary losing the general election in 2016 would be most likely.  Then Biden, after either losing to Hillary in the primaries—or sitting out because he knows she’s heavily favored—decides to take one more shot at the top job.  The Republican president 2017-2021 doesn’t seem relevant.  I would have basically come of with the rl scenario.
In your mind
1. Wouldn’t Biden reputation be ruined? A sitting vice president losing the primary, how did he bounce back in 2020? Unless he had better general election polling than Hillary and lost a close primary. Which he spends four years saying “I should have been the nominee”. Which I guess is what happened?

2. If Biden did not run in 2016, why did he run in 2020 in your scenario?

Perhaps losing a primary would be a big embarrassing, but losing to a big name such as Hillary Clinton could be understandable, especially if it’s close.

The RL situation actually makes sense.  Everyone assumed Hillary would be the 2016 candidate, and that she would win.  Since she lost, Biden was able to make the argument that maybe he’d have been a stronger candidate.  Perhaps Biden decided to sit out 2016 because of the perceived inevitability of Clinton, and when she lost, Biden felt he had one more chance to achieve his great ambition. 

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2022, 09:33:14 AM »

Tbh, I would have thought HRC keeps Biden as VP on the 2016 ticket and she doesn't run for reelection for health reasons or due to a scandal. Biden then easily wins the 2020 nomination is elected prez. After the 2012 GOP autopsy, I doubted they would ever change and as a result, remain locked out of the WH for another 2-3 terms.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2022, 12:54:53 PM »

I'd have guessed that Biden beats an incumbent Republican who was elected in 2016, but I definitely wouldn't have guessed who that Republican was.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2022, 01:32:55 PM »

I would have been stunned. Did Hillary choose not to run for some reason? Was it a divorce with Bill? Biden must have very narrowly lost 2016 to someone like Jeb Bush. Bush v. Biden turns out to be even more controversial than Bush v. Gore and Biden won the popular vote by 2M votes yet lost the deciding state let's say, VA by 115 votes?

Liberals finally get their revenge for 2000 (and 2016) and deliver Biden the win in 2020 with a fairly comfortable victory after Jeb Bush has an unpopular term in office.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2022, 03:28:12 AM »

I would have assumed that Biden was also the nominee in 2016 and Hillary didn't run, and that 2016 turned out to be some form of 2000 redux, Biden winning the popular vote while narrowly losing the Electoral College after some irregularities. The subsequent Republican president turned out to be a complete disaster and Biden, way ahead in the polls, decides to go all in for a rematch and ends up winning.

I would still have been stunned. Before 2015, I always thought Biden might run and actually win in 2016, but that he would just serve a single term since he'd be 82 at the conclusion of his second term. Heck, now we're talking about this is just his first term.

But really interesting question. I recently watched a clip of Obama around 2011 or 2012, and I asked myself how he'd react to a timetraveler telling him that Joe Biden is president ten years from there and not his immediate successor.
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Chips
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« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2022, 04:23:53 AM »

I would've assumed a Republican won against Clinton in 2016 and their term didn't go over so well, resulting in Biden becoming the Democratic nominee in 2020 and winning the general election. Both of the maps would've been different though.



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bagelman
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« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2022, 08:00:07 PM »

Generic R beats Hillary Clinton in 2016 because Hillary Clinton is unelectable. Generic R becomes unpopular by trying to cut taxes for the rich and slash programs for the poor, and Biden beats him out campaigning against such things.

The 2016 and 2020 primaries both featured younger, more progressive Democrats losing out against elderly establishment Democrats. 2016 was a 3 way contest between Clinton, Biden, and a young progressive, and Biden endorsed Clinton to defeat the latter fairly early on.

2020 was a drawn out affair in which younger voters were forced to once again fall in line behind the establishment after a contentious primary similar to 2008. Everyone who isn't a Republican misses Obama.
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2022, 10:22:10 AM »

I would've assumed a Republican won against Clinton in 2016 and their term didn't go over so well, resulting in Biden becoming the Democratic nominee in 2020 and winning the general election. Both of the maps would've been different though.





Switch Wisconsin for Pennsylvania.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2022, 10:35:39 AM »

I would have been stunned. Did Hillary choose not to run for some reason? Was it a divorce with Bill? Biden must have very narrowly lost 2016 to someone like Jeb Bush. Bush v. Biden turns out to be even more controversial than Bush v. Gore and Biden won the popular vote by 2M votes yet lost the deciding state let's say, VA by 115 votes?

Liberals finally get their revenge for 2000 (and 2016) and deliver Biden the win in 2020 with a fairly comfortable victory after Jeb Bush has an unpopular term in office.

It's really interesting that anyone assumed HRC to run (and eventually win) the 2016 election, although she always declined an intention to run throughout 2013 and 2014. At some point I thought she may actually not run.
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jaichind
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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2022, 03:47:13 PM »

That Rubio won in 2016 and was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2022, 07:33:22 PM »

I would have been stunned. Did Hillary choose not to run for some reason? Was it a divorce with Bill? Biden must have very narrowly lost 2016 to someone like Jeb Bush. Bush v. Biden turns out to be even more controversial than Bush v. Gore and Biden won the popular vote by 2M votes yet lost the deciding state let's say, VA by 115 votes?

Liberals finally get their revenge for 2000 (and 2016) and deliver Biden the win in 2020 with a fairly comfortable victory after Jeb Bush has an unpopular term in office.

It's really interesting that anyone assumed HRC to run (and eventually win) the 2016 election, although she always declined an intention to run throughout 2013 and 2014. At some point I thought she may actually not run.
Those were fake

For some reason, it was customary for politicians to pretend they weren't running up until they announced despite how obvious it is.

Hillary and Jeb Bush swore they weren't running for president while fundraising millions. So did Rubio. There is a TIME magazine article from 2006 interviewing Obama, where he swears he isn't running in 2008. If you read his new book "The Promise Land" his team was preparing for a run since Kerry lost in 2004.

I appreciated how both Biden and Sanders were honest about running as soon as 2017.

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Plankton5165
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« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2022, 06:48:00 PM »

A Republican wins in 2016.

I would maybe guess it's a human being born in 1982 and standing as tall as Afrojack. He'd be easily the tallest and oldest president.

It'd be sad that he'd lose in 2020.

I'd actually more likely guess that in late 2013. I don't think I even knew Afrojack was 6'10" in early 2013 so I probably wouldn't have guessed the height.
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