Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Coldstream]

This article seems to suggest that Ben-Gvir has gained popularity in the last year and could lead the far right instead of Smotrich:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-711073

[Coldstream]

99% counted in the likud primary:
- top 5 is Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, Yoav Gallant, David Amsalem, Amir Ohana. A mix of uncontroversial Netanyahu toadies and combative extremists.
- Nir Barkat 7th (8th on the list), not great but puts him in a good position for the succession.
- Yisrael Katz down to the 13th spot, embarrassing for him
- Yuli Edlestein down from 2nd to 24th, if I were him I'd resign
- only 4 women in the top 30- Miri Regev 9th, Galit Distel (biggest Netanyahu cultist and most deranged person in the party) 20th, Attorney Tali Gotliv (known for representing rapists with the most disgusting tactics of victim blaming and deriding you can imagine) in the 25th spot reserved for a new woman, longtime MK Gila Gamliel in an embarrassing 30th place
- fmr UN Ambassador Danny Danon 15th, fmr Yisrael Hayom editor Boaz Bismuth 27th (after reserved spots, by raw votes he's like 19th)
- Kahanist May Golan 32nd
- longest serving non Netanyahu Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi out, placed 46th
- Flops: far right activist Eretz Tadmor 47th, Gilad Sharon (son of Ariel) 48th, MK Orly Levy Abekasis 50th, Bibi economic advisor Avi Simchon 53rd, former hyped Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin 54th, fmr MKs Ayoob Kara and Osnat Mark, and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Fleur Hassan Nahum even below that

Edit: looks like Edlestein passed Haim Katz and will jump to spot 18. Small consolation

Does the fact Levy & Feiglin came so low down mean they may try and revive their personal parties? Getting 1-2% between them could be enough to drag others down below the threshold and affect the final makeup.

[Coldstream]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yeah it’s a very US/UK centric view to think support for Israel has decreased recently, just because Pro-Palestine politicians are/were prominent in the last decade.

[Coldstream]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Ireland’s always had a strong undercurrent of catholic anti-semitism - it’s similar to Poland in that respect - but unlike Poland due to their “neutrality” in World War Two they never had the Holocaust to make them reevaluate. Although that’s partly cos the Jewish community has always been tiny in Ireland.

It’s also still the country that gave condolences on Hitlers death after all - though De Valera himself pretty clearly wasn’t an anti-Semite he certainly tolerated anti-semites in his government. The government also sought to punish Irish people/soldiers who went to fight the Nazis - a practise that continued well in to the 90s. I wouldn’t go as far as saying they were Pro-Nazi, but a lot of Irish politicians would say the British were as bad if not worse than the Nazis - which at least speaks to a disregard for the Jews.

Also the SF types like to identify with Palestine (and the ANC back in the day) because it makes their cause seem more legitimate & they like to pretend they are an anti-colonial force - it’s not hard to find SF figures banging on about the Rothschilds or praising Hitler. There’s also the openly anti semitic Mick Wallace who’s basically a Neo-Nazi conspiracist on Jews - and he continues to get elected.

So I’m not convinced support really has declined in Ireland, Israel was never likely to get much of a hearing there no matter what it did.

[Coldstream]

My partner and I tried to go to the Jewish section of Belfast City Cemetery a few years ago, as she's got relatives buried there, but unfortunately that section is now closed off to the public after repeated attacks on gravestones there.

The most famous member of that community is Chaim Herzog, of course, whose father was known as the Sinn Féin Rabbi.

Pre Civil War Sinn Fein were very different to post civil war Sinn Fein, they had a much wider range of support from across the spectrum.

[Coldstream]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

Ben Gvir doesn’t have money, this way he puts his foot through the doors with substantial party financing in the future.
Bibi and Smotric are buying the rope with which he’ll strangle them in the future

Yeah Smotrich seems like the kind of guy whose happy with 7-8 seats just influencing the government. Ben Gvir doesn’t seem like he’ll settle for anything less than the top job long term.

[Coldstream]

Shaked and Hendel are no more. Shaked will try linking up with old JH and positioning herself between Likud and ZR.

hopefully, she's going home for good that cancerous hag

Surely there’s no chance either of them get in to parliament?

[Coldstream]

Can someone explain why some parties have longer lists than others? Is there a reason for every party not to just have full 70 candidate lists?

[Coldstream]

It might be that there is an accelerationist motive behind this decision. A Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government could generate a bit of a backlash internationally.

Even by the standards of accelerationism, letting people that could generously be described as ethnic cleansers like Otzma into the government would be a very bad idea.