Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
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Author Topic: Israel 2022 election (November 1st)  (Read 25997 times)
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #575 on: November 06, 2022, 03:04:18 PM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #576 on: November 06, 2022, 03:05:38 PM »

Yeah, Israel's actual roots are secular and socialist, no matter how inconvenient this fact might be to the people who run things now.

Likud remains notable for a major party of the political right anywhere in that it has never been formally antisocialist: that Netanyahu is a recognizable type of right-wing politician of the sort that can be found in most Western (and highly developed non-Western for that matter) societies can easily obscure the fact that the party he leads is rather stranger and less typical.* Though perhaps not so rare in Eastern Europe: the 'Israel is best understood as a postcommunist society' thesis again.

*Of course as time goes by and as Netanyahu's personality continues to constantly warp the political system, this is more and more a piece of trivia as political parties become brands attached to and an extension of whoever currently leads them more than organizations.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #577 on: November 06, 2022, 03:19:16 PM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
I assume mixed cities are cities that have both large Jewish and Arab populations?

Yes. They've been the center of extreme violence in May 2021.
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Logical
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« Reply #578 on: November 06, 2022, 03:35:19 PM »

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.

Nazareth - 28k votes (North)
Hadash - 45.31%
Balad - 26.2%
Ra'am - 21.41%
Likud - 2.34%
Meretz - 1.65%
YA - 1.21%

Tamra - 15k votes (North)
Ra'am - 36.49%
Hadash - 34.22%
Balad - 24.52%
YA - 2.34%

Sakhnin - 15k votes (North)
Hadash - 38.55%
Balad - 30.29%
Ra'am - 29.06%

Shefa-Amr - 15k votes (North)
Hadash - 36.57%
Balad - 22.39%
Ra'am - 20.16%
YB - 8.22%
YA - 2.92%
Meretz - 2.74%
Labor - 2.01%
Statist - 1.94%
Likus - 1.63%

Arraba - 10k votes (North)
Hadash - 43.81%
Ra'am - 28.93%
Balad - 25.63%

Kafr Kanna - 8.2k votes (North)
Balad - 37.11%
Ra'am - 33.84%
Hadash - 22.17%
Likud - 2.4%
YA - 2.18%

Majd Al-Krum - 7k votes (North)
Hadash - 45.81%
Balad - 41.24%
Ra'am - 10.73%

Kafr Yasif - 5.2k votes (Christian mix)
Hadash - 53.56%
Balad - 29.1%
Ra'am - 8.19%
Likud - 2.64%
Meretz - 1.74%
YA - 1.57%
Statist - 1.09%

ar-Rama - 3.6k votes (Christian mix)
Hadash - 35.83%
Balad - 15.23%
Ra'am - 11.09%
Meretz - 8.23%
Likud - 8.17%
YB - 6.31%
YA - 5.86%
Statist - 5.09%
Labor - 2.72%

Eilabun - 2.7k votes (Christian-Druze)
Hadash - 39.91%
Balad - 18.3%
Ra'am - 12.43%
Meretz - 11.24%
YA - 6.16%
Likud - 5.04%
Statist - 3.52%
Labor - 1.45%

Mi'ilya - 1.7k votes (Christian)
Hadash - 47.62%
Balad - 24.77%
Meretz - 11.54%
YA - 10.27%
Statist - 1.86%
Likud - 1.45%

Fassuta - 1.2k votes (Christian)
Balad - 34.62%
Hadash - 32.13%
Meretz - 16.06%
Likud - 4.66%
Statist - 4.34%
YA - 3.78%
Ra'am - 1.85%
Labor - 1.2%

Jish - 1.2k votes (Christian)
Hadash - 36.18%
Balad - 26.6%
Ra'am - 11.32%
Meretz - 8.47%
YA - 6.81%
Labor - 3.25%
Likud - 2.85%
Statist - 2.53%

Jisr az-Zarqa - 4.1k votes (Coastal)
Hadash - 41.19%
Ra'am - 32.04%
Balad - 20.81%
Meretz - 1.66%
Likud - 1.22%

Fureidis - 3.5k votes (Coastal)
Ra'am - 33.84%
Balad - 29.65%
Hadash - 28.8%
Meretz - 2.61%
YA - 1.08%

Umm al-Fahm - 14k votes (Northern Triangle)
Hadash - 40.54%
Balad - 37.87%
Ra'am - 18.05%

Baqa al-Gharbiyye - 9.6k votes (Northern Triangle)
Balad - 50.59%
Ra'am - 22.55%
Hadash - 22.39%
Statist - 1.49%
Meretz - 1.23%

Kfar Kara - 8.4k votes (Northern Triangle)
Ra'am - 50.29%
Balad - 27.74%
Hadash - 19.31%

Ar'ara - 7.3k votes (Northern Triangle)
Balad - 45.06%
Hadash - 26.09%
Ra'am - 26.15%

Ma'ale Iron - 4.5k votes (Northern Triangle)
Balad - 43.37%
Hadash - 23.78%
Ra'am - 22.24%
Shas - 5.09%
Meretz - 1.96%

Tayibe - 17.4k votes (Southern Triangle)
Hadash - 62.95%
Balad - 17.42%
Ra'am - 16.63%
Meretz - 1.4%

Tira - 11k votes (Southern Triangle)
Balad - 34.86%
Ra'am - 32.16%
Hadash - 29.31%
Meretz - 1.25%

Kafr Qasim - 10k votes (Southern Triangle)
Ra'am - 67.51%
Hadash - 13.07%
Balad - 11.76%
Meretz - 5.42%

Qalansawe - 8k votes (Southern Triangle)
Hadash - 41.54%
Balad - 32.24%
Ra'am - 23.12%

Abu Ghosh - 2.7k votes (Jerusalem)
Balad - 45.61%
Ra'am - 30.26%
Hadash - 11.27%
Likud - 7.51%
Meretz - 2.09%

Rahat - 23k votes (South)
Ra'am - 64.16%
Balad - 13.99%
Hadash - 12.51%
Meretz - 4.13%
Likud - 1.59%

Tel as-Sabi - 5.7k votes (South)
Ra'am - 81.37%
Hadash - 8%
Balad - 7.44%
Likud - 1.02%

Ar'arat an-Naqab - 5.5k votes (South)
Ra'am - 92.1%
Balad - 3.14%
Hadash - 2.55%

Kuseife - 5.2k votes (South)
Ra'am - 71.36%
Balad - 10.97%
Hadash - 8.1%
Statist - 4.26%
Meretz - 2.29%
Likud - 1.03%

Hura - 4.3k votes (South)
Ra'am - 54.82%
Hadash - 39.18%
Balad - 2.23%
Likud - 1.44%

Lakiya - 4k votes (South)
Ra'am - 68.33%
Balad - 23.12%
Hadash - 6.27%

Shaqib al-Salam - 3.1k votes (South)
Ra'am - 70.13%
Hadash - 25.16%
Likud - 1.66%
Balad - 1.32%

Daliyat al-Karmel - 7.2k votes (Druze)
Statist - 54.88%
YB - 15.79%
YA - 11.39%
Meretz - 5.19%
Likud - 3.16%
Hadash - 2.78%
Labor - 2.63%
Ra'am - 1.2%

Isfiya - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Statist - 32.15%
YB - 17.51%
Balad - 11.18%
YA - 8.85%
Meretz - 8.5%
Hadash - 7.62%
Ra'am - 5.62%
Likud - 3.35%
Labor - 2.82%

Yarka - 5.7k votes (Druze)
Likud - 34.43%
Statist - 22.61%
YB - 15.68%
Meretz - 7.44%
Hadash - 7.2%
YA - 6.5%
Ra'am - 2.06%
Labor - 1.19%

Beit Jann - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Meretz - 61.59%
Statist - 9.77%
YB - 8.57%
Labor - 5.96%
Likud - 5.69%
YA - 3.5%
Hadash - 1.55%
Ra'am - 1.14%

Kisra-Sumei 1.9k votes (Druze)
Statist - 39.79%
YB - 16.76%
Likud - 9.77%
YA - 9.25%
Meretz - 7.46%
Labor - 4.68%
Hadash - 3.44%
Balad - 3.08%

Kfar Kama - 930 votes (Circassian)
YA - 28.82%
Statist - 22.15%
Ra'am - 19.78%
Meretz - 9.35%
Labor - 8.49%
Likud - 3.01%
Hadash - 2.8%
YB - 1.83%

Rehaniya - 482 votes (Circassian)
Statist - 23.44%
YA - 18.67%
YB - 18.26%
Hadash - 9.13%
Ra'am - 8.71%
Labor - 8.3%
Meretz - 4.98%
Likud - 3.11%
Balad - 2.9%
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ottermax
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« Reply #579 on: November 06, 2022, 08:30:34 PM »

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.


Did Meretz lose votes compared to the previous election in Arab towns?
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Logical
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« Reply #580 on: November 07, 2022, 01:59:45 AM »

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.

Did Meretz lose votes compared to the previous election in Arab towns?
They did not lose much vote wise, but as turnout in Arab towns increased by more than 10% the share of the Arab vote they got decreased as a percentage.
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GM Team Member WB #NoToJo
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« Reply #581 on: November 07, 2022, 02:04:20 AM »

I wonder if this will lead to a fall in Israel's image abroad again, it did seem to improve a bit recently.
I do expect BDS to pop back up. It had kinda fallen out of notoriety since Bibi left.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #582 on: November 07, 2022, 03:26:35 AM »

Netanya - 113k votes

Bnei Brak - 87k votes
UTJ - 59.79%
Shas - 30.18%
RZP - 4.43%
Likud - 3.39%
YA - 0.71%
Statist - 0.47%
YB - 0.35%
JH - 0.18%
Labor - 0.16%
Meretz - 0.11%

97.79% for the Likud bloc... it makes Washington DC feel positively competitive! I know it's a Haredi centre, but these types of results are normally reserved for religious communities in small towns, not an 181k one!
Boibrak (Bnei Brak) is essentially a massive Shtetl and not a city.
In fact, most "cities" in Israel and especially those built post-1948 aren't cities but a condensed lump of concrete with no real urbanicity to them. They are mostly immigrants' towns ("development towns") that kept expanding in size
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Hnv1
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« Reply #583 on: November 07, 2022, 03:28:25 AM »

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.

Did Meretz lose votes compared to the previous election in Arab towns?
They did not lose much vote wise, but as turnout in Arab towns increased by more than 10% the share of the Arab vote they got decreased as a percentage.
They did in fact lose votes. Freg voters (e.g., in Kfar Qassam) did not go to Meretz this time.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #584 on: November 07, 2022, 08:11:05 AM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.
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ottermax
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« Reply #585 on: November 07, 2022, 06:17:18 PM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #586 on: November 08, 2022, 02:06:58 AM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?
Young, educated, white collar, secular, and generally liberal. A bit more Muslim than Christian. Probably speaks English with his kids rather than Hebrew.

Actually if Meretz had any wits they would have realized a decade ago that they had a huge catchment area here of potential voters (and indeed this demographic voted more Meretz in 2021). A lot of young Arabs go to Israeli universities and for the first time have some freedom from their society and look for political action. Hadash is a fossil to them like Labour is for Jews and they end up in the nationalistic cells of Balad that provide them with a strong sense of identity and security.

Thugs and rioters don't vote, and Balad is historically weak with the large traditional clans.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #587 on: November 10, 2022, 08:43:58 AM »

There's a longstanding perversion to analyze voting in Kibbutzim - yours truly had sinned in 2021 - and Haaretz published some nice graphs.



red - Labour; green - Meretz; light blue - Yesh Atti; blue - B&W; greyish - Statist; orange - Meretz+Labour; light brown - Kadima; Yellow - Hatnuah (Livni); brown - Likud

2022 saw the lowest combined vote share for Labour and Meretz (2020 excluded due to the joint run). from over 90% in 1992 to 32% in 2022.

Though it's worth noting that in 1992 Labour was a broad tent and more centrist, and the overall lump of center-left voters remains steady at over 80%, so in a sense, they are simply in line with Israeli society at large.

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Angel of Death
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« Reply #588 on: November 11, 2022, 06:47:44 AM »

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #589 on: November 11, 2022, 09:35:42 AM »

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?
62-58

If Balad had clinched it, then 61-59. 60-60, or 59-61 depends on a lot of factors (like surpluses)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #590 on: November 11, 2022, 10:05:48 AM »

Though it's worth noting that in 1992 Labour was a broad tent and more centrist, and the overall lump of center-left voters remains steady at over 80%, so in a sense, they are simply in line with Israeli society at large.

The fragmentation of the parties and constantly switching strategic voting patterns as politics moved from being unusually ideological to being driven by personality politics and vibes. Quite fascinating actually: thanks for posting this.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #591 on: November 12, 2022, 11:03:03 AM »


I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #592 on: November 12, 2022, 01:32:42 PM »


I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.
There would be. A majority of 62 seats
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #593 on: November 12, 2022, 06:13:29 PM »


I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.
There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.
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Darthpi is pleasantly surprised
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« Reply #594 on: November 12, 2022, 06:27:16 PM »


I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.
There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.

Why are we discussing a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ alliance? That has never been any party's goal.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #595 on: November 13, 2022, 02:34:32 AM »


I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.
There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.
The case now is a majority of 64 not 62.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #596 on: November 13, 2022, 08:18:02 AM »


I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.
There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.
The case now is a majority of 64 not 62.

Then you've been misreading this the whole time, because I have been talking about the combined number of seats for the Bibi bloc minus RZ plus National Unity. Alternatively, you could just state the number of seats for each party had Meretz made it in.
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NUPES Enjoyer
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« Reply #597 on: November 14, 2022, 11:31:42 AM »

Say what you will about Israel's vote-counting, but at least they've posted final, certified results within a week of the election, Unlike Some.

So, since my autism gives me a deep-seated aversion for analyzing election data that isn't final and I needed something to bite off, here's an updated chart of Israeli elections since 1992.



Really not much shift overall. The uptick in the centrist vote is an artifact of the fact that Gantz and Saar are together now and I chose to put them on that side rather than on the right (feels weird to still put YB on the right as well, but it would feel even weirder to move it over to the center-left side). The "core" right-wing vote (as in, Likud and everything to its right) has increased, though, almost equaling its high point in 2020. The religious parties are also stronger than they've been since 2013, so this election saw a genuine growth of the pro-Bibi block all around. Was it due to persuasion or turnout (or even demographic replacement)? I'm curious to hear Israeli posters' takes on that. Arab turnout also did quite well, coming close to its 2015 level (though still well below its 2020 high point). The left vote crashed and burned even more than it previously had, but if you include YA into the mix the picture gets a lot better, so it seems like what just happened is that a bunch of Labor/Meretz types jumped ship.

All in all, of course, the Israeli electorate is remarkably stable, as befit a society that seems both polarized and pillarized (in ways that don't even fully overlap!). No idea what it's going to take to actually break the standstill, but I guess we'll see how Israelis will feel after 4 years of Bibi...
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #598 on: November 24, 2022, 02:14:35 PM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?

Middle-class, politically aware, highly educated, often Christian, and usually urban. Basically as far away from the weirdo RZ voters as you can get. The key dynamic in Israeli society right now is that the Arab public is becoming better educated wealthier, and politically more serious, while the Jewish public is being consumed by fanaticism, hatred, growing poverty, etc. Balad is such a threat to political establishment because it is at the spearhead of a major social dynamic that nobody wants to see happen--the Zionist narrative of enlightened Jews making a Middle Eastern country thrive in the middle of Arab darkness is challenged endlessly by urbane Arabs pointing out the basic injustice of occupation and ethnic hatred.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #599 on: November 25, 2022, 05:41:47 AM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?

Middle-class, politically aware, highly educated, often Christian, and usually urban. Basically as far away from the weirdo RZ voters as you can get. The key dynamic in Israeli society right now is that the Arab public is becoming better educated wealthier, and politically more serious, while the Jewish public is being consumed by fanaticism, hatred, growing poverty, etc. Balad is such a threat to political establishment because it is at the spearhead of a major social dynamic that nobody wants to see happen--the Zionist narrative of enlightened Jews making a Middle Eastern country thrive in the middle of Arab darkness is challenged endlessly by urbane Arabs pointing out the basic injustice of occupation and ethnic hatred.
I think both societies polarize quite similarly. the urban elite becomes increasingly secular and globalist while the periphery is descending into increased poverty and crime. some find solacce in religion.
the economic conditions in some segments of the arab population are sinking to new lows while greater Nazereth becomes a thriving metro
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