Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

[Vosem]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

[Hnv1]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Most of the people in countries you refer don’t know who Bibi is and would have drifted anti-Israel even if Herzog was PM since 2015. Correlation is not causation, especially soft correlation.
What you’re referring to is simply woke post-colonialism, and tbf I couldn’t care less what Sociology students in Latin America or Dublin say about anything.

[Vosem]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Most of the people in countries you refer don’t know who Bibi is and would have drifted anti-Israel even if Herzog was PM since 2015. Correlation is not causation, especially soft correlation.
What you’re referring to is simply woke post-colonialism, and tbf I couldn’t care less what Sociology students in Latin America or Dublin say about anything.

I think you misunderstand me -- one of the most visible shifts is poor or right-wing or especially poor and right-wing parts of Latin America becoming much more in favor of Israel, to the point that talking about ~The Conflict~ is now a staple for people right-wing candidates (particularly in Central America, but also, eg Colombia/Brazil; overlaps with places where there've been really large-scale conversions to Protestantism) in a way that it really wasn't 20 years ago.

Whether that matters any more than sociology students in Dublin can be questioned, but if we're going to have a conversation on international opinions on Israel then it's tough to avoid noticing that rhetoric from a Bolsonaro or Duque or Bukele has shifted from 'not caring' to 'overwhelming positivity'.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The issue with Netanyahu is surely much less his effect on popular opinions towards Israel, and much more the fact that the Democratic establishment is thoroughly fed up with his sh**t and that therefore him being in government means you're giving up on influence during Democratic trifectas.

[DL]

Public opinion on Israel/Palestine sometimes does very weird things. For example, if you ever travel to Belfast, Northern Ireland and you are not sure whether you are in a Catholic or a Protestant neighbourhood - a good rule of thumb is that if you see Israeli flags flying all over the place you are in a DUP voting Protestant area. If you see Palestinian flags flying you know you are in a Catholic Sinn Fein stronghold.

Ironically the Free Presbyterian Church that DUPers tend to be members of was always viciously anti-Semitic (and racist, homophobic and misogynist etc etc etc.) but it seems that the moment the Catholics started to identify with the Palestinian cause the reaction among Protestants was "well if the mics are all supporting the Palestinians, I guess that means we all have to support Israel"...None of these Prots from Ulster like Jews any more than they used to and very few actually care about Israel or could find it on a map, its just an attitude of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"

[Hnv1]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Most of the people in countries you refer don’t know who Bibi is and would have drifted anti-Israel even if Herzog was PM since 2015. Correlation is not causation, especially soft correlation.
What you’re referring to is simply woke post-colonialism, and tbf I couldn’t care less what Sociology students in Latin America or Dublin say about anything.

I think you misunderstand me -- one of the most visible shifts is poor or right-wing or especially poor and right-wing parts of Latin America becoming much more in favor of Israel, to the point that talking about ~The Conflict~ is now a staple for people right-wing candidates (particularly in Central America, but also, eg Colombia/Brazil; overlaps with places where there've been really large-scale conversions to Protestantism) in a way that it really wasn't 20 years ago.

Whether that matters any more than sociology students in Dublin can be questioned, but if we're going to have a conversation on international opinions on Israel then it's tough to avoid noticing that rhetoric from a Bolsonaro or Duque or Bukele has shifted from 'not caring' to 'overwhelming positivity'.

Applies mutatis mutandis to right wing nutters across the world. Where political sides pick "sides" between "Israel" and "Palestine" they more often than not don't care what actually happens between Israel and Palestine.

[Coldstream]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Ireland’s always had a strong undercurrent of catholic anti-semitism - it’s similar to Poland in that respect - but unlike Poland due to their “neutrality” in World War Two they never had the Holocaust to make them reevaluate. Although that’s partly cos the Jewish community has always been tiny in Ireland.

It’s also still the country that gave condolences on Hitlers death after all - though De Valera himself pretty clearly wasn’t an anti-Semite he certainly tolerated anti-semites in his government. The government also sought to punish Irish people/soldiers who went to fight the Nazis - a practise that continued well in to the 90s. I wouldn’t go as far as saying they were Pro-Nazi, but a lot of Irish politicians would say the British were as bad if not worse than the Nazis - which at least speaks to a disregard for the Jews.

Also the SF types like to identify with Palestine (and the ANC back in the day) because it makes their cause seem more legitimate & they like to pretend they are an anti-colonial force - it’s not hard to find SF figures banging on about the Rothschilds or praising Hitler. There’s also the openly anti semitic Mick Wallace who’s basically a Neo-Nazi conspiracist on Jews - and he continues to get elected.

So I’m not convinced support really has declined in Ireland, Israel was never likely to get much of a hearing there no matter what it did.

[Hnv1]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Ireland’s always had a strong undercurrent of catholic anti-semitism - it’s similar to Poland in that respect - but unlike Poland due to their “neutrality” in World War Two they never had the Holocaust to make them reevaluate. Although that’s partly cos the Jewish community has always been tiny in Ireland.

It’s also still the country that gave condolences on Hitlers death after all - though De Valera himself pretty clearly wasn’t an anti-Semite he certainly tolerated anti-semites in his government. The government also sought to punish Irish people/soldiers who went to fight the Nazis - a practise that continued well in to the 90s. I wouldn’t go as far as saying they were Pro-Nazi, but a lot of Irish politicians would say the British were as bad if not worse than the Nazis - which at least speaks to a disregard for the Jews.

Also the SF types like to identify with Palestine (and the ANC back in the day) because it makes their cause seem more legitimate & they like to pretend they are an anti-colonial force - it’s not hard to find SF figures banging on about the Rothschilds or praising Hitler. There’s also the openly anti semitic Mick Wallace who’s basically a Neo-Nazi conspiracist on Jews - and he continues to get elected.

So I’m not convinced support really has declined in Ireland, Israel was never likely to get much of a hearing there no matter what it did.

—I just wanted to say, he said. Ireland, they say, has the honour of being the only country which never persecuted the jews. Do you know that? No. And do you know why?
He frowned sternly on the bright air.
—Why, sir? Stephen asked, beginning to smile.
—Because she never let them in


Back in olden times I thought of studying in Trinity College, a two weeks trip in Dublin made it pretty clear that would be an ill decision.
I found that antisemitism in the UK+Ireland falls under three major trends:
- old antisemitism: posh/rural people who dislike "Jewish Bankers". pretty ripe with the aristocracy but they tend to keep to themselves and keep quiet. Also ripe with nonconformist churches
- the Muslim anti-Zionism spiraled into full blown antisemitism: I don't know why but it's especially dominant in the Pakistani community.
- old school catholic antisemitism: heavy traces of it with Catholics in Ireland, Scotland, and old Labour working class voters

[EastAnglianLefty]

My partner and I tried to go to the Jewish section of Belfast City Cemetery a few years ago, as she's got relatives buried there, but unfortunately that section is now closed off to the public after repeated attacks on gravestones there.

The most famous member of that community is Chaim Herzog, of course, whose father was known as the Sinn Féin Rabbi.

[Coldstream]

My partner and I tried to go to the Jewish section of Belfast City Cemetery a few years ago, as she's got relatives buried there, but unfortunately that section is now closed off to the public after repeated attacks on gravestones there.

The most famous member of that community is Chaim Herzog, of course, whose father was known as the Sinn Féin Rabbi.

Pre Civil War Sinn Fein were very different to post civil war Sinn Fein, they had a much wider range of support from across the spectrum.

[Hnv1]

My partner and I tried to go to the Jewish section of Belfast City Cemetery a few years ago, as she's got relatives buried there, but unfortunately that section is now closed off to the public after repeated attacks on gravestones there.

The most famous member of that community is Chaim Herzog, of course, whose father was known as the Sinn Féin Rabbi.

Pre Civil War Sinn Fein were very different to post civil war Sinn Fein, they had a much wider range of support from across the spectrum.

They also had a substantial contingency of protestant member and supporters for Irish home rule\nationalism before the treaty. The Presbyterian churches back then, in both Scotland and Ireland were some of the most vehement voices of antisemitism.


We can leave the interesting Jewish-Irish-British discussion for now though...

Meretz disqualified over a thousand Bedouin members whose membership was fictive. So Golan is heading for a lose next week.

The rest of the political scene is relatively quiet. Smotric and Ben Gvir are bickering about their joint run as usual

[Hnv1]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

[jaichind]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

Good, though they might have the votes now to dance closer to the threshold,  which would be bad.

[jaichind]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

Good, though they might have the votes now to dance closer to the threshold,  which would be bad.

I recall back in 2019 Netanyahu got them to run on a bigger list of Religious Right parties exactly because of concerns of wasted votes. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

Good, though they might have the votes now to dance closer to the threshold,  which would be bad.

I recall back in 2019 Netanyahu got them to run on a bigger list of Religious Right parties exactly because of concerns of wasted votes. 

Yeah, but that's more or less what RZ is right now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

Any prediction for the Meretz list primary tomorrow?

[Hnv1]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

Any prediction for the Meretz list primary tomorrow?

Hard to tell. Meretz doesn't do primaries often, and with such small membership (18K), small differences are big differences. Golan still has solid support from the old and the Kibbutz voters I think he will finish in the top 6 despite everyone else hating him. I can't really predict further, but I think both Horowitz and Raz will drop low.

Really pinch of saltish prediction:
1. Zehava
2. Rozin
3. Golan
4. Salalha
5. Lasky
6. someone new


The only branches with more than 500 members are: Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, Beit Jan, Kfar Kassam, Rahat.
The last three will be all for Bader, Salalha and Abu Siam respectively.

[Hnv1]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

Any prediction for the Meretz list primary tomorrow?

From Gossip I gather it seems everyone is in the dark and not sure of the power structure in the membership.
Though it seems that the reds have 4K members (of 18.5K), the Kibbutz several thousands others, and around 5-7K Arab voters.
Because the Arab and Kibbutz voters vote as a bloc they will be the kingmakers (at least regarding the list).

I think we're heading to quite a surprise on the list with Galon winning the leadership by a small margin

[Logical]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Religious Zionism primary results:
1. Smotrich (leader)
2. MK Ofir Sofer (former party chairman, basically the party man)
3. MK Orit Strook (longtime religious zionist activist, far-right activist whose son tortured a Palestinian)
4. MK Simcha Rotman (twitter activist, right wing of course)
5. MK Michal Waldinger (the most sympathetic MK on the list, doesn't make much noise and works for mental healthcare issues)
6. Tzvi Sukot (extreme right activist, former Otzma chairman, history of taking things in his own hands)
7. Moshe Solomon (Ethiopian religious zionist rabbie)
8. Yitzhak Zaga (another rabbie, rabid homophobe, previously challenged Bennet for Jewish Home leadership)
9. Arnon Segal (journalist, brother of Israel's leading political journalist\right wing propagandanist Amit Segal)
10. Naama Zarbiv ("I'm a woman and I hate feminists!!" person)

Smotrich apparently wanted a more "moderate" and diverse list, not sure he got it. Waldinger is on the far edge of realistic seats, one token Ethiopian really doesn't erase the extremism of the rest of the list.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz primary- Galon beats Golan, no surprise there.
For the list:
1. Galon (leader)
2. MK Mosi Raz (very left-wing, would make a union with Labor hard)
3. MK Michal Rozin (unsurprising, strong MK)
4. MK Ali Salalha (Meretz secures minority representation, druze school director)
5. MK Yair Golan (lost the leadership, but strong chance to get in anyway)
6. MK Gaby Leski (another far left activist)
7. Minister Nitzan Horovitz (not great but not as terrible as I thought he might get with all the rumours of weakness- he could get in with a Norwegian law)- Horovitz actually came 5th in the vote but Lasky passes him because of woman reserved spot
8. Mazen Abu Siam (Bedouin activist and city councillor)
9. Umemaya Hamed (an Arab attorney and Meretz member, Meretz gets an Arab woman in their top 10)
10. Adir Badir (Isawi Farij confidant from Kfar Kassem, him coming this low seems like a blow for Farij)
11. Katie Piasetzky (Meretz city councilor in Bat Yam, pretty strong voice there, nearly got into the Knesset this time)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Basically I think it finalizes a trend we saw in the primaries this year- very activist candidates were chosen over party veterans, who were mostly pushed back. In Likud and RZ it resulted in louder more extreme voices winning, while in Labor and Meretz it also resulted in more left wing voices but there was a more distinct trend of rewarding hardworking parliamentarians- Lazimi (Labor 1st place) and Raz (Meretz 1st place) all got a lot of buzz for their parliamentary work (and had a lot of online support which this time wasn't just a bubble)

[Hnv1]

Meretz primary- Galon beats Golan, no surprise there.
For the list:
1. Galon (leader)
2. MK Mosi Raz (very left-wing, would make a union with Labor hard)
3. MK Michal Rozin (unsurprising, strong MK)
4. MK Ali Salalha (Meretz secures minority representation, druze school director)
5. MK Yair Golan (lost the leadership, but strong chance to get in anyway)
6. MK Gaby Leski (another far left activist)
7. Minister Nitzan Horovitz (not great but not as terrible as I thought he might get with all the rumours of weakness- he could get in with a Norwegian law)- Horovitz actually came 5th in the vote but Lasky passes him because of woman reserved spot
8. Mazen Abu Siam (Bedouin activist and city councillor)
9. Umemaya Hamed (an Arab attorney and Meretz member, Meretz gets an Arab woman in their top 10)
10. Adir Badir (Isawi Farij confidant from Kfar Kassem, him coming this low seems like a blow for Farij)
11. Katie Piasetzky (Meretz city councilor in Bat Yam, pretty strong voice there, nearly got into the Knesset this time)

Lasky got more votes than Horowitz.

I wasn’t far off with my prediction
1. Zehava
2. Rozin
3. Golan
4. Salalha
5. Lasky
6. someone new

I missed how Raz became so popular.

Further analysis of RZ and Meretz later