Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
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Hnv1
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« Reply #125 on: August 09, 2022, 12:24:27 PM »

~58% turnout

1. Michaeli
2.Naama Lazimi
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Ryten
5. Ram Shefa
6. Emili Moati
7. Yaya Fink
8. Ibtisam Maraana
9. Omer Bar Lev
10. Mahrate Baruch
11. Amir Knifes (who?)
12. Maya Nuri

Yair Tarchitsky is 23rd which is poor for him
Tomer Avital 19...hahahhaha
Nachman Shay 17! wow that's a big finger from the voters

Massive for Lazimi and the socialists

Knifes is a longtime Druze party activist.

This is a big drama indeed - Bar Lev is a big loser here, almost certainly out of the next Knesset. Maraana also likely out but she might get in if the party has 6-6 seats and is in government. Shay also a huge loser, voters said "bye bye old men". Tarchitsky doing so badly is interesting considering Lazimi is first - suggests the voters aren't exactly ideological socialists, but Lazimi was able to be broadly popular. Fink might juuuust about miss it again.

I hoped Maraana can pass Moati but I guess the results are fine.
If my trade unionist morrocan hating uncle voted Lazimi you can see she has a wide appeal
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Hnv1
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« Reply #126 on: August 11, 2022, 02:22:41 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2022, 04:47:58 AM by Hnv1 »

50% counter in the Likud primaries. Preliminary remarks:

- Yariv Levine is heading to the first spot along with a strong showing for the Bibist wing. Him and Ohana will be Bibi's demolition contractors for the judicial system if elected. Levine waited on the side from quite a long time and refused to take bigger ministerial roles offered saying he wants the Justice Ministry and only when he can reform it. His time is fast approaching.
-Barkat v. Katz in the battle of successors-in-their-own-eyes ended with a 1-0 to Barkat and both sides relegated. Neither are in the top 5 and Katz might be out of the top 10.
- Edelstein challenged Bibi for a second and was pushed way way back
- Hangebi, the worthless sod is finally out after 34 years in the Knesset. He will probably get the 50th spot.
- Levy Abukasis didn't manage to fool anyone. Embarrassing night for her
- the new names are: Danny Danon returning from the UN, former editor of Israel Hayom Boaz Bismouth, and some defence lawyer that specialized in representing rapists.

Provisional list after 70% of the votes:
1. Bibi
2. Levine (who won the first spot by quite a hefty margin)
3. Eli Cohen
4. Yoav Galant
5. Dudi Amsalem
6. Amir Ohana
7. Yoav Kish
8. Nir Barkat
9. Miri Regev
10. Avi Dichter
11. Shlomo Karai'i
12. Miki Zohar
13. Israel Katz (hahahahah)
...
23. Yuli Edelstein (ouch)

Sitting MKs or are probably out: Hanegbi, Gamliel, Levy Abksis, Ybarkan, Keren Barak.

Notable people who also failed to get a realistic spot: Gilad Sharon (son of), Avi Simchon (Bibi's pet economy professor), Moshe Feiglin, Uzi Dayan, Erez Tadmor.

Despite some minor issues, this day was a massive victory for Bibi who solidified his control on the party. It is quite clear that Likud members are in aggressive mood.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #127 on: August 11, 2022, 07:08:10 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2022, 07:19:13 AM by America Needs R'hllor »

99% counted in the likud primary:
- top 5 is Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, Yoav Gallant, David Amsalem, Amir Ohana. A mix of uncontroversial Netanyahu toadies and combative extremists.
- Nir Barkat 7th (8th on the list), not great but puts him in a good position for the succession.
- Yisrael Katz down to the 13th spot, embarrassing for him
- Yuli Edlestein down from 2nd to 24th, if I were him I'd resign
- only 4 women in the top 30- Miri Regev 9th, Galit Distel (biggest Netanyahu cultist and most deranged person in the party) 20th, Attorney Tali Gotliv (known for representing rapists with the most disgusting tactics of victim blaming and deriding you can imagine) in the 25th spot reserved for a new woman, longtime MK Gila Gamliel in an embarrassing 30th place
- fmr UN Ambassador Danny Danon 15th, fmr Yisrael Hayom editor Boaz Bismuth 27th (after reserved spots, by raw votes he's like 19th)
- Kahanist May Golan 32nd
- longest serving non Netanyahu Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi out, placed 46th
- Flops: far right activist Eretz Tadmor 47th, Gilad Sharon (son of Ariel) 48th, MK Orly Levy Abekasis 50th, Bibi economic advisor Avi Simchon 53rd, former hyped Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin 54th, fmr MKs Ayoob Kara and Osnat Mark, and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Fleur Hassan Nahum even below that

Edit: looks like Edlestein passed Haim Katz and will jump to spot 18. Small consolation
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Hnv1
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« Reply #128 on: August 11, 2022, 07:55:56 AM »

Nissim Vaturi, the dumbest person to grace the Knesset, is back! At least Likud always provide comic relief
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #129 on: August 11, 2022, 08:07:42 AM »

Nissim Vaturi, the dumbest person to grace the Knesset, is back! At least Likud always provide comic relief

In the morning they reported that Lior Lasry, a loser who ran for maalot tarshiha mayor but lost because he's an elitist everyone hates, has a lead in that district. Sad!
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Coldstream
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« Reply #130 on: August 11, 2022, 08:15:42 AM »

99% counted in the likud primary:
- top 5 is Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, Yoav Gallant, David Amsalem, Amir Ohana. A mix of uncontroversial Netanyahu toadies and combative extremists.
- Nir Barkat 7th (8th on the list), not great but puts him in a good position for the succession.
- Yisrael Katz down to the 13th spot, embarrassing for him
- Yuli Edlestein down from 2nd to 24th, if I were him I'd resign
- only 4 women in the top 30- Miri Regev 9th, Galit Distel (biggest Netanyahu cultist and most deranged person in the party) 20th, Attorney Tali Gotliv (known for representing rapists with the most disgusting tactics of victim blaming and deriding you can imagine) in the 25th spot reserved for a new woman, longtime MK Gila Gamliel in an embarrassing 30th place
- fmr UN Ambassador Danny Danon 15th, fmr Yisrael Hayom editor Boaz Bismuth 27th (after reserved spots, by raw votes he's like 19th)
- Kahanist May Golan 32nd
- longest serving non Netanyahu Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi out, placed 46th
- Flops: far right activist Eretz Tadmor 47th, Gilad Sharon (son of Ariel) 48th, MK Orly Levy Abekasis 50th, Bibi economic advisor Avi Simchon 53rd, former hyped Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin 54th, fmr MKs Ayoob Kara and Osnat Mark, and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Fleur Hassan Nahum even below that

Edit: looks like Edlestein passed Haim Katz and will jump to spot 18. Small consolation

Does the fact Levy & Feiglin came so low down mean they may try and revive their personal parties? Getting 1-2% between them could be enough to drag others down below the threshold and affect the final makeup.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #131 on: August 11, 2022, 08:27:19 AM »

99% counted in the likud primary:
- top 5 is Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, Yoav Gallant, David Amsalem, Amir Ohana. A mix of uncontroversial Netanyahu toadies and combative extremists.
- Nir Barkat 7th (8th on the list), not great but puts him in a good position for the succession.
- Yisrael Katz down to the 13th spot, embarrassing for him
- Yuli Edlestein down from 2nd to 24th, if I were him I'd resign
- only 4 women in the top 30- Miri Regev 9th, Galit Distel (biggest Netanyahu cultist and most deranged person in the party) 20th, Attorney Tali Gotliv (known for representing rapists with the most disgusting tactics of victim blaming and deriding you can imagine) in the 25th spot reserved for a new woman, longtime MK Gila Gamliel in an embarrassing 30th place
- fmr UN Ambassador Danny Danon 15th, fmr Yisrael Hayom editor Boaz Bismuth 27th (after reserved spots, by raw votes he's like 19th)
- Kahanist May Golan 32nd
- longest serving non Netanyahu Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi out, placed 46th
- Flops: far right activist Eretz Tadmor 47th, Gilad Sharon (son of Ariel) 48th, MK Orly Levy Abekasis 50th, Bibi economic advisor Avi Simchon 53rd, former hyped Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin 54th, fmr MKs Ayoob Kara and Osnat Mark, and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Fleur Hassan Nahum even below that

Edit: looks like Edlestein passed Haim Katz and will jump to spot 18. Small consolation

Does the fact Levy & Feiglin came so low down mean they may try and revive their personal parties? Getting 1-2% between them could be enough to drag others down below the threshold and affect the final makeup.

Nah they won't do it. Running a party takes time, money and effort. Plus Levy couldn't get more than a thousand votes these days.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #132 on: August 11, 2022, 09:20:05 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2022, 01:39:28 PM by Hnv1 »

99% counted in the likud primary:
- top 5 is Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, Yoav Gallant, David Amsalem, Amir Ohana. A mix of uncontroversial Netanyahu toadies and combative extremists.
- Nir Barkat 7th (8th on the list), not great but puts him in a good position for the succession.
- Yisrael Katz down to the 13th spot, embarrassing for him
- Yuli Edlestein down from 2nd to 24th, if I were him I'd resign
- only 4 women in the top 30- Miri Regev 9th, Galit Distel (biggest Netanyahu cultist and most deranged person in the party) 20th, Attorney Tali Gotliv (known for representing rapists with the most disgusting tactics of victim blaming and deriding you can imagine) in the 25th spot reserved for a new woman, longtime MK Gila Gamliel in an embarrassing 30th place
- fmr UN Ambassador Danny Danon 15th, fmr Yisrael Hayom editor Boaz Bismuth 27th (after reserved spots, by raw votes he's like 19th)
- Kahanist May Golan 32nd
- longest serving non Netanyahu Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi out, placed 46th
- Flops: far right activist Eretz Tadmor 47th, Gilad Sharon (son of Ariel) 48th, MK Orly Levy Abekasis 50th, Bibi economic advisor Avi Simchon 53rd, former hyped Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin 54th, fmr MKs Ayoob Kara and Osnat Mark, and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Fleur Hassan Nahum even below that

Edit: looks like Edlestein passed Haim Katz and will jump to spot 18. Small consolation

Does the fact Levy & Feiglin came so low down mean they may try and revive their personal parties? Getting 1-2% between them could be enough to drag others down below the threshold and affect the final makeup.
Feiglin might be tempted but bottom line they’re both past it. I don’t see 0.5% voting for Levy, she’s as popular as STDs. Feiglin could rejoin the fringe libertarian party but his personal appeal these days is quite low.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #133 on: August 11, 2022, 11:52:40 PM »

Maariv poll from this morning:
Likud 33
YA 25
B&W 10
Religious Zionism 10
Shas 9
UTJ 7
Labour 7
JL 6
YB 5
Ra'am 4
Zionist Geist 4
Meretz 2.9%
Zalicha's Economic Party 1%
Free Israel (Eli Avidar) 0.3% - anti vaxxers
Jewish Home 0.3%
Green Leaf & Ousrat El Islamia 0.2% (it seems the potheads are running with a naturalist Islamic party)

The polls are starting to sediment, and key points are:
- YA are climbing in the seats count. from around 20, they're moving up to mid-20s. With a decent push, Lapid might make it a head-to-head run, bringing YA close to 30 seats
- The Bibi bloc is going to get a majority if one of either Meretz\Zionist Spirit falls under the threshold. They certainly will get a majority if Zionist Spirit passes the bar, but Meretz doesn't.
- B&W are shrinking, and they will continue to do so, come election day Lapid can drink 2-4 seats from them and showing charity to Meretz to get them over the bar
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« Reply #134 on: August 12, 2022, 01:12:16 AM »

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #135 on: August 12, 2022, 07:30:57 AM »

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

A very pertinent and correct observation.

And it is not (contrary to what some will claim) illegitimate to point it out.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #136 on: August 13, 2022, 10:08:40 AM »

Hadash list:
1. Aymen Odeh
2. Aida Tuma Sliman
3. Ofer Kassif
4. Youssef Al Atouna

There was a challenge to Sliman and Kassif trying to pick more moderate representatives but it failed. The 4th spot will go to a Bedouin meaning Hadash might try and bite off Ra’am there.

The list will change once the JL arrange the list together
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Vosem
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« Reply #137 on: August 13, 2022, 01:43:49 PM »

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #138 on: August 13, 2022, 03:27:57 PM »

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yeah it’s a very US/UK centric view to think support for Israel has decreased recently, just because Pro-Palestine politicians are/were prominent in the last decade.
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Vosem
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« Reply #139 on: August 13, 2022, 05:12:43 PM »

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yeah it’s a very US/UK centric view to think support for Israel has decreased recently, just because Pro-Palestine politicians are/were prominent in the last decade.

Harder to say about the UK, but polling from the US suggests that positive opinions of the Israeli state actually rose over the last decade (and are certainly higher today relative to two decades ago), even as pro-Palestinian advocacy might have become much better organized.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #140 on: August 14, 2022, 12:53:27 AM »

Former IDF Chief Eisenkot joins Gantz and Sa'ar, for some reason they're naming their joint list "hamachane hamamlachti". It's a word that doesn't really exist in English, but translates roughly to the "statesman camp" or "respectable camp"
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Hnv1
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« Reply #141 on: August 14, 2022, 01:03:49 AM »

Former IDF CoGS LTG. Eisenkot joins B&W+NH and they will run under the banner the "Statist Party"*. The party vows to hold open primaries before the next election cycle.
I think it's a mistake by everyone. B&W fail to see where the wind is blowing to, ex-generals aren't that appealing as they were. Eisenkot is going to be a number 3 in a party that is unlikely to form a government or survive much past the interests of its two current leaders.
He should have either joined Lapid or start from scratch with Labour.


* I have a hard time translating the term ממלכתי to English. It's a very idiosyncratic Israeli political concept that denotes to Ben Gurion's desire to ditch the pre-48 class/partisan politics and cherish the new political institutions. It's about reverence to the state institutions and radical centrism. I think the name is a reference of Ben-Gurion's failed splinter party that ran in 1969 (Wikipedia translated it as the National List but I don't think it does justice to the meaning) and Eisenkot is a huge fan of Ben Gurion (overrated PM for me).
I think statism captures more of the essence here
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« Reply #142 on: August 14, 2022, 01:09:30 AM »

Former IDF CoGS LTG. Eisenkot joins B&W+NH and they will run under the banner the "Statist Party"*. The party vows to hold open primaries before the next election cycle.
I think it's a mistake by everyone. B&W fail to see where the wind is blowing to, ex-generals aren't that appealing as they were. Eisenkot is going to be a number 3 in a party that is unlikely to form a government or survive much past the interests of its two current leaders.
He should have either joined Lapid or start from scratch with Labour.


* I have a hard time translating the term ממלכתי to English. It's a very idiosyncratic Israeli political concept that denotes to Ben Gurion's desire to ditch the pre-48 class/partisan politics and cherish the new political institutions. It's about reverence to the state institutions and radical centrism. I think the name is a reference of Ben-Gurion's failed splinter party that ran in 1969 (Wikipedia translated it as the National List but I don't think it does justice to the meaning) and Eisenkot is a huge fan of Ben Gurion (overrated PM for me).
I think statism captures more of the essence here
I think "Institutionalist Party" would be a better translation then. Statist is frequently used in a pejorative sense by opponents to refer to someone who wants a big, hugely powerful government in English, though I definitely get where you are coming from using it here.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #143 on: August 14, 2022, 01:14:41 AM »

Former IDF CoGS LTG. Eisenkot joins B&W+NH and they will run under the banner the "Statist Party"*. The party vows to hold open primaries before the next election cycle.
I think it's a mistake by everyone. B&W fail to see where the wind is blowing to, ex-generals aren't that appealing as they were. Eisenkot is going to be a number 3 in a party that is unlikely to form a government or survive much past the interests of its two current leaders.
He should have either joined Lapid or start from scratch with Labour.


* I have a hard time translating the term ממלכתי to English. It's a very idiosyncratic Israeli political concept that denotes to Ben Gurion's desire to ditch the pre-48 class/partisan politics and cherish the new political institutions. It's about reverence to the state institutions and radical centrism. I think the name is a reference of Ben-Gurion's failed splinter party that ran in 1969 (Wikipedia translated it as the National List but I don't think it does justice to the meaning) and Eisenkot is a huge fan of Ben Gurion (overrated PM for me).
I think statism captures more of the essence here
I think "Institutionalist Party" would be a better translation then. Statist is frequently used in a pejorative sense by opponents to refer to someone who wants a big, hugely powerful government in English, though I definitely get where you are coming from using it here.
Well but that's what they wanted! Etatism sounds too libertarian, but Statism capture their faith in the state. I don't know of any other country with such strong statist political centre.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #144 on: August 14, 2022, 02:29:52 AM »

Former IDF CoGS LTG. Eisenkot joins B&W+NH and they will run under the banner the "Statist Party"*. The party vows to hold open primaries before the next election cycle.
I think it's a mistake by everyone. B&W fail to see where the wind is blowing to, ex-generals aren't that appealing as they were. Eisenkot is going to be a number 3 in a party that is unlikely to form a government or survive much past the interests of its two current leaders.
He should have either joined Lapid or start from scratch with Labour.


* I have a hard time translating the term ממלכתי to English. It's a very idiosyncratic Israeli political concept that denotes to Ben Gurion's desire to ditch the pre-48 class/partisan politics and cherish the new political institutions. It's about reverence to the state institutions and radical centrism. I think the name is a reference of Ben-Gurion's failed splinter party that ran in 1969 (Wikipedia translated it as the National List but I don't think it does justice to the meaning) and Eisenkot is a huge fan of Ben Gurion (overrated PM for me).
I think statism captures more of the essence here
I think "Institutionalist Party" would be a better translation then. Statist is frequently used in a pejorative sense by opponents to refer to someone who wants a big, hugely powerful government in English, though I definitely get where you are coming from using it here.

I feel like "institutionalist" captures it pretty well! Statist sounds a bit weird, but also hilarious so I'm fine with that too. I do wonder what the media will take up.

Matan Kahana, former Religious Affairs Minister and a red line for Haredim, will join the new party in #9 (might actually not enter if they decline- probably placed so low to placate the haredim).
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Mike88
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« Reply #145 on: August 14, 2022, 01:54:15 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2022, 01:58:01 PM by Mike88 »

Yesh Atid seems to be catching up:


Sorry, didn't saw that the poll had been already posted. Anyway, does the N&W+NH merger benefits Lapid, because it looks that Gantz is a bit desperate?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #146 on: August 14, 2022, 02:43:33 PM »

I just remembered when Gantz was going to take over Labor. What an incredibly desperate flop of a politician.
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« Reply #147 on: August 14, 2022, 04:20:07 PM »

One scenario, which I haven't seen discussed and don't know the plausibility of, is that Bibi does get his majority (with or without Zionist Spirit), but thinks that actually having the Religious Zionists in his government isn't worth all the trouble and just uses them to try to blackmail Gantz into joining him again. In light of that, it's interesting to speculate how the merger with New Hope affects the likelihood of such a thing happening.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #148 on: August 15, 2022, 02:56:17 AM »

Yesh Atid seems to be catching up:


Sorry, didn't saw that the poll had been already posted. Anyway, does the N&W+NH merger benefits Lapid, because it looks that Gantz is a bit desperate?


It could or could not benefit Lapid. On the one hand, it ensures Gantz/Saar pass the threshold and lets him enter maximum vote drinking mode from them. On the other hand, if they do better than expected, Gantz could try to become PM.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #149 on: August 15, 2022, 04:28:42 AM »

Yesh Atid seems to be catching up:


Sorry, didn't saw that the poll had been already posted. Anyway, does the N&W+NH merger benefits Lapid, because it looks that Gantz is a bit desperate?
I think that all things considered Eisenkot will add nothing.

The small bump in polls is usually the highest point the party gets, so from an expected 14 seats by election day they'll be closer to 8. Lapid benefits from the whole tripartite merger as he can easily take voters from them and lay easy on both Labour and Meretz.

Gantz doesn't have a government and the Haredi aren't leaving Bibi, anyone saying otherwise is living in 1999
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