Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Well even the reds support Galon.

really speaks volumes about Golan when everyone hates him.

In other news, all of Labour MKs endorse Michaeli.

Eisenkot is heading to B&W. poor choice by him

Some internal strife in Likud over the way they'll pick the slots on the list allocated to regional Likud branches

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Well even the reds support Galon.

really speaks volumes about Golan when everyone hates him.

In other news, all of Labour MKs endorse Michaeli.

Eisenkot is heading to B&W. poor choice by him

Some internal strife in Likud over the way they'll pick the slots on the list allocated to regional Likud branches

What's your read on how Meretz's list will look like?
Gotta say, a list consisting of Galon, Rozin and Horovitz at the top will look more appealing for a merger with Labor.

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Well even the reds support Galon.

really speaks volumes about Golan when everyone hates him.

In other news, all of Labour MKs endorse Michaeli.

Eisenkot is heading to B&W. poor choice by him

Some internal strife in Likud over the way they'll pick the slots on the list allocated to regional Likud branches

What's your read on how Meretz's list will look like?
Gotta say, a list consisting of Galon, Rozin and Horovitz at the top will look more appealing for a merger with Labor.

It's hard to tell as the candidate list isn't closed yet, and it's an open primary but if I have to bet, it's going to be:
1. Galon
2. Horowitz (consolation prize)
3. Rozin (gender equality bump)
4. Zlalha, so there's a pseudo-Arab candidate
5. Bihovsky (some young nobody the reds are pushing)

The big groups want Raz and Lasky pushed back as they are toxic for crawling to Labour's lap.

In other news, after Golan realized the Reds made the unprecedented and historical decision to support Gal'on said that it's a stale party that does everything to keep its people in paying jobs. I'll wage that after he inevitably finishes 10th, he'll resign and join Eli Avidar in some pointless anti-Bibi party. Kudos to Meretz for showing that even they have some standards and the dumb ex-general isn't wanted by anyone

[Hnv1]

Michaeli wins the leadership vote 82-16
First Labour leader to survive a leadership primaries since Peres in 89

[America Needs R'hllor]

Derech Eretz (Minister Yoaz Hendel and MK Michael Hauser) running with Yamina and got the 2nd and 4th spots on the list. I'm assuming it'll look like:

1. Shaked
2. Hendel
3. Desperate Yamina MK who didn't find a better party
4. Hauser
5. Even more esperate Yamina MK who didn't find a better party

I can't see a scenario where they pass the threshold.

Edit: the party's going to get a new name- "Zionist Spirit" (I wonder when they'll run out of right wing sounding names). Apparently Shaked wants go bring a religious zionist figure - possibly Yossi Brudani, a long time Mayor nominated by the Jewish Home of old to lead their list. If so, assuming he gets place #3, that leaves Yamina members out of the top 4.

[Hnv1]

Derech Eretz (Minister Yoaz Hendel and MK Michael Hauser) running with Yamina and got the 2nd and 4th spots on the list. I'm assuming it'll look like:

1. Shaked
2. Hendel
3. Desperate Yamina MK who didn't find a better party
4. Hauser
5. Even more esperate Yamina MK who didn't find a better party

I can't see a scenario where they pass the threshold.

Edit: the party's going to get a new name- "Zionist Spirit" (I wonder when they'll run out of right wing sounding names). Apparently Shaked wants go bring a religious zionist figure - possibly Yossi Brudani, a long time Mayor nominated by the Jewish Home of old to lead their list. If so, assuming he gets place #3, that leaves Yamina members out of the top 4.

It’s beautiful how everyone left and right rejoice at seeing her fall. Vermin that she is

This party will fail miserably. I think Kahane will join YA and Kara will find himself elsewhere. The rest can start filling unemployment claims

[jaichind]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

[Hnv1]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

One or more of:
1/ Gantz will try and fail to push for some government where he is first and Bibi second
2/ Bibi will push hard to find 2 MKs to support his government
3/ ruling bloc will try to offer the world to 1-4 fringe MKs in Likud to move them sides
4/ someone from Likud will float the suggestion that he will form a government instead of Bibi

All of 1-4 will lead to:
5. An election scheduled for March 2023.

Some think 5 might happen with
6. Bibi moving aside and seeking a plea bargain

But I think that’s ridiculous as he knows that as long as he’s in the game and wreaks havoc his trial prolongs further.

[Umengus]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

One or more of:
1/ Gantz will try and fail to push for some government where he is first and Bibi second
2/ Bibi will push hard to find 2 MKs to support his government
3/ ruling bloc will try to offer the world to 1-4 fringe MKs in Likud to move them sides
4/ someone from Likud will float the suggestion that he will form a government instead of Bibi

All of 1-4 will lead to:
5. An election scheduled for March 2023.

Some think 5 might happen with
6. Bibi moving aside and seeking a plea bargain

But I think that’s ridiculous as he knows that as long as he’s in the game and wreaks havoc his trial prolongs further.

why "zionist spirit" (if seats) couldn't support a Bibi gov ?

[Hnv1]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

One or more of:
1/ Gantz will try and fail to push for some government where he is first and Bibi second
2/ Bibi will push hard to find 2 MKs to support his government
3/ ruling bloc will try to offer the world to 1-4 fringe MKs in Likud to move them sides
4/ someone from Likud will float the suggestion that he will form a government instead of Bibi

All of 1-4 will lead to:
5. An election scheduled for March 2023.

Some think 5 might happen with
6. Bibi moving aside and seeking a plea bargain

But I think that’s ridiculous as he knows that as long as he’s in the game and wreaks havoc his trial prolongs further.

why "zionist spirit" (if seats) couldn't support a Bibi gov ?

They could. But there’s more chance of me getting 3.25% of the vote than these buffoons. Plus I already counted with the Bibi bloc in this question

[danny]

Upcoming August primaries timeline to determine the list:

9th: Labour
10th: Likud
23rd: Religious Zionism, but only the Smotrich part of the list, the result will probably be combined with Jewish Strength (Ben Gvir) and Noam (but judging from previous elections, they will probably wait until the last possible moment to come to an agreement). The date to register with the party has just passed, and there will be 24,113 potential voters.

The deadline to submit lists is 1 September.

[DavidB.]

The point of following a soap opera is that it's fun and lighthearted in spirit. Since the one named Israeli politics has only been depressing over the last couple of years, I've kind of lost track. And so I have some questions:

1. Why is Bennett not continuing his career in politics?
2. Please remind me: why aren't Lapid and Gantz on the same team anymore?
3. What is most likely to happen in the event where the Bibi bloc doesn't win a majority? Another election? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
4. How are Bibi's court cases (?) progressing? Kind of crazy that it's all taking so long.

[Hnv1]

The point of following a soap opera is that it's fun and lighthearted in spirit. Since the one named Israeli politics has only been depressing over the last couple of years, I've kind of lost track. And so I have some questions:

1. Why is Bennett not continuing his career in politics?
2. Please remind me: why aren't Lapid and Gantz on the same team anymore?
3. What is most likely to happen in the event where the Bibi bloc doesn't win a majority? Another election? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
4. How are Bibi's court cases (?) progressing? Kind of crazy that it's all taking so long.

1. Running with Yamina risked the threshold and a massive embarrassment for him plus another constitutional crisis with the PM out of parliament. Running in any other formation would mean he would be second at best which is hamulating for the PM. By all accounts we have records that his family hated every minute of limelight
2. Gantz thinks Lapid backstabbed him on I don't know what. He also thinks he's more fit for leadership than Lapid. Lapid doesn't want to have disloyal people on his party list.
3. I answered this above. In the unlikely event the Lapid bloc gets more seats than the Bibi bloc with the Joint List I think we'll have another election as well.
4. still in the evidence phase of the preliminary stage

[Hnv1]

Upcoming August primaries timeline to determine the list:

9th: Labour
10th: Likud
23rd: Religious Zionism, but only the Smotrich part of the list, the result will probably be combined with Jewish Strength (Ben Gvir) and Noam (but judging from previous elections, they will probably wait until the last possible moment to come to an agreement). The date to register with the party has just passed, and there will be 24,113 potential voters.

The deadline to submit lists is 1 September.

Meretz will have a leadership and list primaries both on the 28th.

Hadash, Ra'am, and Balad all have primaries in August but I can't seem to find credible information about when.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So, any recommendations on who I should vote for in the Labor list primary?
My current list:
100% sure: MKs Ibtisam Maraana and Gilad Kariv, anti corruption activist Tomer Avital
Maybe: MKs Naama Lazimi and Efrat Rayten, former Tel Aviv City Councillors Maharte Baruch and Maya Nuri, left-religious activist Yaya Fink
Absolutely not: journalist Yair Tarchitsky

[Hnv1]

So, any recommendations on who I should vote for in the Labor list primary?
My current list:
100% sure: MKs Ibtisam Maraana and Gilad Kariv, anti corruption activist Tomer Avital
Maybe: MKs Naama Lazimi and Efrat Rayten, former Tel Aviv City Councillors Maharte Baruch and Maya Nuri, left-religious activist Yaya Fink
Absolutely not: journalist Yair Tarchitsky

For: Maraana, Lazimi, Nuri.
Agnostic: Kariv, Ryten.
Absolutely not: Shefa, Avital, Maharte.

Maharte is one disloyal opportunist. It will be a bad call letting her in. Lazimi had been a great council member in Haifa and a good MK, despite some differences I think she's worthy of a spot. Avital is an absolute empty shell of a person and he shouldn't be a legislature. And Shefa is nothing but a lobbyist of rich farmers and Kibbutzniks

[America Needs R'hllor]

So, any recommendations on who I should vote for in the Labor list primary?
My current list:
100% sure: MKs Ibtisam Maraana and Gilad Kariv, anti corruption activist Tomer Avital
Maybe: MKs Naama Lazimi and Efrat Rayten, former Tel Aviv City Councillors Maharte Baruch and Maya Nuri, left-religious activist Yaya Fink
Absolutely not: journalist Yair Tarchitsky

For: Maraana, Lazimi, Nuri.
Agnostic: Kariv, Ryten.
Absolutely not: Shefa, Avital, Maharte.

Maharte is one disloyal opportunist. It will be a bad call letting her in. Lazimi had been a great council member in Haifa and a good MK, despite some differences I think she's worthy of a spot. Avital is an absolute empty shell of a person and he shouldn't be a legislature. And Shefa is nothing but a lobbyist of rich farmers and Kibbutzniks

I've been iffy on Avital but he kinda convinced me via WhatsApp. I like that he's not dogmatic on economics - we need this balance, plus I think he could be good electorally. But I guess I'll need to think about it more.
Why do you like Nuri?

Honestly the MK I'm most enthusiastic about is Maraana. Probably my favorite MK right now

[Hnv1]

So, any recommendations on who I should vote for in the Labor list primary?
My current list:
100% sure: MKs Ibtisam Maraana and Gilad Kariv, anti corruption activist Tomer Avital
Maybe: MKs Naama Lazimi and Efrat Rayten, former Tel Aviv City Councillors Maharte Baruch and Maya Nuri, left-religious activist Yaya Fink
Absolutely not: journalist Yair Tarchitsky

For: Maraana, Lazimi, Nuri.
Agnostic: Kariv, Ryten.
Absolutely not: Shefa, Avital, Maharte.

Maharte is one disloyal opportunist. It will be a bad call letting her in. Lazimi had been a great council member in Haifa and a good MK, despite some differences I think she's worthy of a spot. Avital is an absolute empty shell of a person and he shouldn't be a legislature. And Shefa is nothing but a lobbyist of rich farmers and Kibbutzniks

I've been iffy on Avital but he kinda convinced me via WhatsApp. I like that he's not dogmatic on economics - we need this balance, plus I think he could be good electorally. But I guess I'll need to think about it more.
Why do you like Nuri?

Honestly the MK I'm most enthusiastic about is Maraana. Probably my favorite MK right now

I have no problem with being non dogmatic, I have a problem with lacking any substantive ideology and only caring about procedural matters like transparency. Very technocratic.

As to Nuri, I think the housing crisis is a major issue, and although I own my house feel like it should be a major item on the agenda. Nuri worked on fixing the rental market in Tel Aviv and we need new legislation to secure tenants rights to go through.

Maraana is indeed a nice addition but from the buzz I’m hearing Michaeli and the rest of the big groups in the party want her out.

[Hnv1]

It appears both Ra'am and Balad held primaries yesterday.

Mansour Abbas won the leadership contest by 85%. Number 2 on the list will be MK Walid Taha, with places 3 and 4 going to Abbas loyalists. Hence, unlike last year Abbas can offer much more control of his party as a coalition partner with 3/4 of the list are his people.

Sami Abo Shada was reelected as Balad leader. former MK Schade will be his number 2 though in an unrealistic spot on the Joint List.

Hadash internal elections are something of esoterics. I don't know anyone part of the "inner circle" people that understands how exactly people are elected to the party convention or by what format the convention decides the list. The fact that Hadash is, in fact, two parties, the ICP and the rest, makes it even more obscure. I know former MK Jabarin is challenging Odeh for leadership, but I don't know which body will decide it: the political bureau of the Israeli Communist Party or the united convention of Hadash. Yes, they have a politburo
It's quite ridiculous the year is 2022 and they still act like the Shin Bet is tracking them like a revolutionary organisation.

[Angel of Death]

why "zionist spirit" (if seats) couldn't support a Bibi gov ?

It's really hard to see how they won't, if it puts Bibi over the top.

Right now, there is an ongoing streak of polls where either they can give him that majority - whenever they pass the threshold - or the existing Bibi bloc gets enough seats on its own - when they don't - and that's even with all present anti-Netanyahu parties still making it in in all those polls.

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries today. As someone who recalls the first real primaries vividly (1992, there were leadership primaries since 1981) it's quite sad to see what happened to the party since. My grandad had a list of people from the "right" camp (i.e., Peres not Rabin or the youngsters around Ramon) and the Haifa branch was so big back then there were 3 voting stations in town (there were over 250K voters).

Well nostalgia aside here's my prediction for today:
1. Michaeli (chairman)
2. Kariv
3. Bar Lev
4. Lazimi
5. Shefa
6. Ryten
7. Fink
8. Moati
9. Shay
10. Maraana

Michaeli might conveniently use her power to place 2 candidates in the first 10 by putting one on the 7th spot pushing Fink and Moati back.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour primaries today. As someone who recalls the first real primaries vividly (1992, there were leadership primaries since 1981) it's quite sad to see what happened to the party since. My grandad had a list of people from the "right" camp (i.e., Peres not Rabin or the youngsters around Ramon) and the Haifa branch was so big back then there were 3 voting stations in town (there were over 250K voters).

Well nostalgia aside here's my prediction for today:
1. Michaeli (chairman)
2. Kariv
3. Bar Lev
4. Lazimi
5. Shefa
6. Ryten
7. Fink
8. Moati
9. Shay
10. Maraana

Michaeli might conveniently use her power to place 2 candidates in the first 10 by putting one on the 7th spot pushing Fink and Moati back.

Isn't there a criss cross system of man-woman-man-woman, meaning that 2 men in a row is impossible? Anyway I voted for:
- Maraana
- Kariv
- Lazimi
- Nuri
- Avital
- Rayten
- Fink

And this is my prediction (probably going to be awfully wrong):
1. Michaeli
2. Rayten
3. Kariv
4. Lazimi
5. Bar Lev
6. Moati
7. Shefa
8. Maraana
9. Fink
10. Honestly idk since it has to be a woman, Nuri?

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries today. As someone who recalls the first real primaries vividly (1992, there were leadership primaries since 1981) it's quite sad to see what happened to the party since. My grandad had a list of people from the "right" camp (i.e., Peres not Rabin or the youngsters around Ramon) and the Haifa branch was so big back then there were 3 voting stations in town (there were over 250K voters).

Well nostalgia aside here's my prediction for today:
1. Michaeli (chairman)
2. Kariv
3. Bar Lev
4. Lazimi
5. Shefa
6. Ryten
7. Fink
8. Moati
9. Shay
10. Maraana

Michaeli might conveniently use her power to place 2 candidates in the first 10 by putting one on the 7th spot pushing Fink and Moati back.

Isn't there a criss cross system of man-woman-man-woman, meaning that 2 men in a row is impossible? Anyway I voted for:
- Maraana
- Kariv
- Lazimi
- Nuri
- Avital
- Rayten
- Fink

And this is my prediction (probably going to be awfully wrong):
1. Michaeli
2. Rayten
3. Kariv
4. Lazimi
5. Bar Lev
6. Moati
7. Shefa
8. Maraana
9. Fink
10. Honestly idk since it has to be a woman, Nuri?

The wording of the section indicates:
.רשימת המפלגה
1.7 .במקום הראשון תשובץ יו"ר המפלגה.
2.7 .אחרי יו"ר המפלגה, ישובץ המועמד או המועמדת שקיבלו את מירב הקולות. לאחריהם
ישובצו המועמדים והמועמדות לסירוגין כך שיישמר האיזון המגדרי כך שלאחר כל גבר
תוצב אישה, ולאחר כל אישה יוצב גבר )להלן: עקרון האיזון המגדרי(.

It depends on whether a male getting most votes precludes a male getting 3th spot, where does the criss cross starts. 7.2 indicates the criss cross starts after the 2nd spot on the list, but it depends on your electoral committee I guess. It could be women in <1, 2, 4>, <1, 3, 5>, <1, 4, 6> as I see it

[Hnv1]

~58% turnout

1. Michaeli
2.Naama Lazimi
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Ryten
5. Ram Shefa
6. Emili Moati
7. Yaya Fink
8. Ibtisam Maraana
9. Omer Bar Lev
10. Mahrate Baruch
11. Amir Knifes (druze)
12. Maya Nuri

Yair Tarchitsky is 23rd which is poor for him.
Tomer Avital 19...hahahhaha.
Nachman Shay 17! wow, that's a big middle finger from the voters.

Massive for Lazimi and the socialists. It seems both of Labour's current ministers are out. Moati actually got more votes than Shefa but fell to 6 over gender equality.

Top 10 by raw votes
Lazimi
Kariv
Ryten
Moati
Sheffa
Fink
Bar Lev
Maraana
Shay
Avital

[America Needs R'hllor]

~58% turnout

1. Michaeli
2.Naama Lazimi
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Ryten
5. Ram Shefa
6. Emili Moati
7. Yaya Fink
8. Ibtisam Maraana
9. Omer Bar Lev
10. Mahrate Baruch
11. Amir Knifes (who?)
12. Maya Nuri

Yair Tarchitsky is 23rd which is poor for him
Tomer Avital 19...hahahhaha
Nachman Shay 17! wow that's a big finger from the voters

Massive for Lazimi and the socialists

Knifes is a longtime Druze party activist.

This is a big drama indeed - Bar Lev is a big loser here, almost certainly out of the next Knesset. Maraana also likely out but she might get in if the party has 6-6 seats and is in government. Shay also a huge loser, voters said "bye bye old men". Tarchitsky doing so badly is interesting considering Lazimi is first - suggests the voters aren't exactly ideological socialists, but Lazimi was able to be broadly popular. Fink might juuuust about miss it again.

I hoped Maraana can pass Moati but I guess the results are fine.