PPP - NM Gov - Grisham +3
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  PPP - NM Gov - Grisham +3
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Author Topic: PPP - NM Gov - Grisham +3  (Read 841 times)
AncestralDemocrat.
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« on: June 20, 2022, 09:21:14 AM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2022, 09:21:59 AM »

More like it
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2022, 09:25:44 AM »

Yup, Lean D for now, but much closer Tilt.

Ronchetti could actually pull this off.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2022, 09:34:22 AM »

Lujan Grisham’s lead also largely comes thanks to Hispanic or Latino voters, 64 percent of whom would vote for the incumbent, compared to 28 percent for Ronchetti and 3 percent for Bedonie.

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Don't know how big the sample size is, but Biden won Latinos in NM by 23% in 2020, so +36 would be a good result for Grisham.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2022, 09:39:18 AM »

Tossup.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2022, 09:57:50 AM »

This will be one of the closer races of the cycle. I think Ronchetti pulls ahead based on candidate quality, but as of now I'll call it Lean D.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2022, 12:43:04 PM »

I’m not a person who usually likes using just toss-up, but here this seems almost 50/50.
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Politician
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2022, 02:15:22 PM »

What's funny is that Ronchetti, who was a "sacrifical lamb" in 2020, put up a better performance than Greenfield or Gideon, who were supposed to win...
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2022, 02:24:38 PM »

Meh, I have a feeling this could be a sleeper race for a potential upset. Still think Grisham is favored, though this is definitely race to watch. Which is kind of embarrassing, considering the fact she won in 018 by a landslide and Biden also easily carried the state.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2022, 02:27:47 PM »

A +3 from PPP and a +1 from Ronchetti suggests a true tossup. Interesting that the polls in NM are what you expect from the environment/Biden approval but not true in other states. Ronchetti is a good candidate but it's not like Grisham is a poisoned incumbent. 1 to 1 odds I'd take Ronchetti.
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YE
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2022, 02:29:01 PM »

Jfc.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2022, 02:29:50 PM »

A +3 from PPP and a +1 from Ronchetti suggests a true tossup. Interesting that the polls in NM are what you expect from the environment/Biden approval but not true in other states. Ronchetti is a good candidate but it's not like Grisham is a poisoned incumbent. 1 to 1 odds I'd take Ronchetti.

Can this just be attributed to the environment? Governor's races are more nationalized than they should be, but still not comparable to federal offices. I mean, Polis looks pretty safe despite Biden's approvals in the state just medicore.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2022, 02:31:28 PM »

At this point, I don’t think this is really a "sleeper" race anymore given how many people have been characterizing it that way. A race like MN would probably fit the bill better.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2022, 02:37:57 PM »

Is the L being at 9% here believable though? I mean Gary Johnson seems like the only 3rd party to be able to get those types of third-party #s.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2022, 08:04:17 PM »

Is the L being at 9% here believable though? I mean Gary Johnson seems like the only 3rd party to be able to get those types of third-party #s.

Third parties always poll higher than what they actually end up getting. I wouldn't read too much into it.
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NYDem
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« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2022, 08:54:38 PM »

Is the L being at 9% here believable though? I mean Gary Johnson seems like the only 3rd party to be able to get those types of third-party #s.

It is Gary Johnson's home state. Maybe his two "successful" campaigns (by the gutter-low standards of American third parties) in 2016 and 2018 have made more people in NM consider the Libertarians. He got 9.3% running for President and 15.4% for Senate.


Or this is just another example of a third party being inflated in a poll, as they always seem to be.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2022, 09:13:36 PM »

Probably about a tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2022, 01:16:33 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2022, 03:51:19 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »


It's Lean D, why do some people think that one poll shows us losing NM
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