Preliminary 2022 House Predictions
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Author Topic: Preliminary 2022 House Predictions  (Read 8388 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 17, 2022, 06:01:02 PM »
« edited: July 13, 2022, 12:26:55 PM by AGA »

Since almost all the states have finished redistricting, I decided to make a preliminary House prediction. I am expecting Republicans to win the general congressional ballot by around five points. These predictions are mostly based on a universal national swing. Light colors indicate that the race will probably be competitive.

















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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2022, 06:15:40 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=g3gd
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2022, 07:46:35 PM »

2022 House elections
Kevin McCarthy-Republican: 245+32 51.3% (+3.6%)
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 190-32 45.8% (-5.0%)
435 seats
218 for majority

I assume Louisiana uses the current map.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2022, 09:29:28 AM »

Rs aren't getting 245
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GeekTalk999
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2022, 03:43:23 PM »

Id say were heading for Ds around 192 and Rs around 243 - give or take 30 or so gains for republicans.  In less polarised times much worse for Dems but I think the floor is higher for them because of partisanship. 
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2022, 09:22:56 AM »

The projection is 201/234R H and Rs aren't getting 30 Govs neither
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2022, 11:08:54 AM »

Rs are not gonna sweep everything
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2022, 12:17:58 PM »

My prediction: Democrats will lose the majority. It will be a better night for the Democrats than many fear now, but not anywhere near good enough to keep them in power.

230 R / 205 D

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2022, 05:08:20 AM »

My prediction: Democrats will lose the majority. It will be a better night for the Democrats than many fear now, but not anywhere near good enough to keep them in power.

230 R / 205 D



About that...
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Gracile
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2022, 06:39:54 PM »

Early prediction colored for gains and holds (for this map, new seats without a clear incumbent party are counted as gains).

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/LMQb7w5

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S019
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2022, 12:18:10 AM »

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2022, 08:33:05 AM »


There are some mistakes I think. CA 01 and MI 09 are wrong they should be Red, WI 04 should be blue
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bagelman
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2022, 02:20:40 AM »

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/eqKLDnM
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2022, 01:15:52 PM »

My (2nd to final) 2022 House Prediction

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=i5xx

Likely D: CA-21, CT-02, FL-09, FL-23, IL-08, IL-11, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NM-01, NY-04, NC-14, OR-04, PA-04, TX-28, VA-10, WA-06, WA-10
Lean D: CA-09, CO-07, GA-02, IL-06, IL-14, IN-01, NH-02, NM-03, NC-06, OR-06, PA-06, TX-34
Tilt D: AZ-04, CA-47, CA-49, CT-05, IL-13, MI-03, MI-08, NV-01, NV-04, NY-17, RI-02
Tilt R: CA-13, CA-27, IL-17, MD-06, MN-02, NV-03, NM-02, NY-03, NY-18, NY-22, NC-01, OH-01, OR-05, PA-17, VA-07, WA-08
Lean R: AK-AL, AZ-01, CO-08, CA-22, CA-45, FL-27, IA-03, KS-03, ME-02, MI-07, NH-01, NY-19, NC-13, OH-09, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02
Likely R: AZ-02, AZ-06, CA-03, CA-40, CA-41, FL-15, FL-28, IA-01, MI-10, NE-02, NJ-07, NY-01, NY-02, TX-15, WI-03

Safe D: 151 (inc. TX-35)
Safe R: 194 (inc. FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, MT-01, OH-14, TN-05, TX-38)

Total D: 192 (-30)
Total R: 243 ✓ (+30)

Overall House vote

Republicans: 52.5% (+6.0%)
Democrats: 46.5%

Overall Rating: Likely R --> Safe R (Oct)

Given that there's been sparse (and the ones we do have are awful) polling for individual districts this cycle (I wonder why...) these predictions are based almost all on the following factors:

 - Generic ballot polling (and previous polling errors) and presidential approval
 - Partisan lean of the district, voting history (especially 2020)
 - Incumbent performance (under/over?) in previous elections (especially 2020)
 - Other statewide races affecting down-ballot?
 - Demographics (if heavily Hispanic and/or working class, more likely to swing heavily R)

Very little is based off

 - "Candidate quality"
 - Fundraising
 - Individual district polling

So, I'm likely to make more than a few errors on individual districts. And I think it'll be obvious as to why after the election. If for example I underestimate Republicans in those Nevada/New Mexico/Texas districts, it may be because Hispanics shifted more Republican than even I thought. If I underestimate Democrats in some suburban metro districts, it'll be because the college-educated white voter is becoming a very stiff backbone of support for the Democratic Party. I suspect those two things are what we'll come away from the election noticing demographics-wise, but it's hard to gauge exactly how severe those trends are right now. I'll also underestimate candidates if say... they ran an outstanding campaign that outperformed the national environment, which will happen in a few cases (such as potentially Allan Fung in RI-02).

Some of the tilts could literally go either way, but in midterms, I tend to give the "out" party the benefit of the doubt, and that's Republicans. This looks remarkably similar to a prediction map I put out months ago, because the fundamentals of this election have largely stayed the same, despite many efforts on the part of the media and election community to convince you otherwise. I think the repeating pattern tends to be we underestimate the party out of power in midterms, but in recent years this has just turned into only underestimating Republicans. If I do this good I'll get a few districts wrong inevitably but I'll be in the right ballpark of seats, and right now, I see little chance that Republicans will get less than 230 seats, unlike most prognosticators. 225-230 actually requires the generic ballot polling to overestimate Republicans, which it hasn't done in a midterm of a Democratic president since... when exactly?

I feel the same way I did posting this in 2020. Going much against the "consensus", knowing there's a chance I could be wrong, but knowing I have fundamentals and common sense on my side. Something many election pundits and analysts are missing.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2022, 01:29:29 AM »

3 month later (and 6 days before election) - and my prediction returned to what it was in early August:

House: 230-235 Republicans, 200-205 Democrats

Senate: both parties will be in 48-52 range (most likely  - even 49-51)

Governors: about present 28-22 Republican, may be with 1-2 seats difference

State legislatures: small Republican gains because of such states as West Virginia...
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2022, 03:17:07 AM »

I know this is bold, but I believe that the data-primarily recent election results-are pointing to a neutral national environment, roughly in line with what the generic ballot says but not a Republican wave. Republicans only need 5 seats to win the majority and they are likely to get there, sealed by a late surge.
Republican: 220+7 48.5%(+0.8%)
Democratic: 215-7 49.1%(-1.7%)

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/L5V91ZM
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2022, 09:13:22 AM »

I know this is bold, but I believe that the data-primarily recent election results-are pointing to a neutral national environment, roughly in line with what the generic ballot says but not a Republican wave. Republicans only need 5 seats to win the majority and they are likely to get there, sealed by a late surge.
Republican: 220+7 48.5%(+0.8%)
Democratic: 215-7 49.1%(-1.7%)

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/L5V91ZM
Landsman/Tony Vargas/Jared Golden would not lose with a popular vote like this
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