Preliminary 2022 House Predictions
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August 13, 2022, 04:23:34 AM
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Author Topic: Preliminary 2022 House Predictions  (Read 5265 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 17, 2022, 06:01:02 PM »
« edited: July 13, 2022, 12:26:55 PM by AGA »

Since almost all the states have finished redistricting, I decided to make a preliminary House prediction. I am expecting Republicans to win the general congressional ballot by around five points. These predictions are mostly based on a universal national swing. Light colors indicate that the race will probably be competitive.

















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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2022, 06:15:40 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=g3gd
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2022, 07:46:35 PM »

2022 House elections
Kevin McCarthy-Republican: 245+32 51.3% (+3.6%)
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 190-32 45.8% (-5.0%)
435 seats
218 for majority

I assume Louisiana uses the current map.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2022, 09:29:28 AM »

Rs aren't getting 245
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GeekTalk999
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2022, 03:43:23 PM »

Id say were heading for Ds around 192 and Rs around 243 - give or take 30 or so gains for republicans.  In less polarised times much worse for Dems but I think the floor is higher for them because of partisanship. 
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2022, 09:22:56 AM »

The projection is 201/234R H and Rs aren't getting 30 Govs neither
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2022, 11:08:54 AM »

Rs are not gonna sweep everything
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2022, 12:17:58 PM »

My prediction: Democrats will lose the majority. It will be a better night for the Democrats than many fear now, but not anywhere near good enough to keep them in power.

230 R / 205 D

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2022, 05:08:20 AM »

My prediction: Democrats will lose the majority. It will be a better night for the Democrats than many fear now, but not anywhere near good enough to keep them in power.

230 R / 205 D



About that...
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gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2022, 06:39:54 PM »

Early prediction colored for gains and holds (for this map, new seats without a clear incumbent party are counted as gains).

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/LMQb7w5

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