Preliminary 2022 House Predictions
S019:
RussFeingoldWasRobbed:
There are some mistakes I think. CA 01 and MI 09 are wrong they should be Red, WI 04 should be blue
bagelman:
https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/eqKLDnM
ElectionsGuy:
My (2nd to final) 2022 House Prediction
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=i5xx
Likely D: CA-21, CT-02, FL-09, FL-23, IL-08, IL-11, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NM-01, NY-04, NC-14, OR-04, PA-04, TX-28, VA-10, WA-06, WA-10
Lean D: CA-09, CO-07, GA-02, IL-06, IL-14, IN-01, NH-02, NM-03, NC-06, OR-06, PA-06, TX-34
Tilt D: AZ-04, CA-47, CA-49, CT-05, IL-13, MI-03, MI-08, NV-01, NV-04, NY-17, RI-02
Tilt R: CA-13, CA-27, IL-17, MD-06, MN-02, NV-03, NM-02, NY-03, NY-18, NY-22, NC-01, OH-01, OR-05, PA-17, VA-07, WA-08
Lean R: AK-AL, AZ-01, CO-08, CA-22, CA-45, FL-27, IA-03, KS-03, ME-02, MI-07, NH-01, NY-19, NC-13, OH-09, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02
Likely R: AZ-02, AZ-06, CA-03, CA-40, CA-41, FL-15, FL-28, IA-01, MI-10, NE-02, NJ-07, NY-01, NY-02, TX-15, WI-03
Safe D: 151 (inc. TX-35)
Safe R: 194 (inc. FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, MT-01, OH-14, TN-05, TX-38)
Total D: 192 (-30)
Total R: 243 ✓ (+30)
Overall House vote
Republicans: 52.5% (+6.0%)
Democrats: 46.5%
Overall Rating: Likely R --> Safe R (Oct)
Given that there's been sparse (and the ones we do have are awful) polling for individual districts this cycle (I wonder why...) these predictions are based almost all on the following factors:
- Generic ballot polling (and previous polling errors) and presidential approval
- Partisan lean of the district, voting history (especially 2020)
- Incumbent performance (under/over?) in previous elections (especially 2020)
- Other statewide races affecting down-ballot?
- Demographics (if heavily Hispanic and/or working class, more likely to swing heavily R)
Very little is based off
- "Candidate quality"
- Fundraising
- Individual district polling
So, I'm likely to make more than a few errors on individual districts. And I think it'll be obvious as to why after the election. If for example I underestimate Republicans in those Nevada/New Mexico/Texas districts, it may be because Hispanics shifted more Republican than even I thought. If I underestimate Democrats in some suburban metro districts, it'll be because the college-educated white voter is becoming a very stiff backbone of support for the Democratic Party. I suspect those two things are what we'll come away from the election noticing demographics-wise, but it's hard to gauge exactly how severe those trends are right now. I'll also underestimate candidates if say... they ran an outstanding campaign that outperformed the national environment, which will happen in a few cases (such as potentially Allan Fung in RI-02).
Some of the tilts could literally go either way, but in midterms, I tend to give the "out" party the benefit of the doubt, and that's Republicans. This looks remarkably similar to a prediction map I put out months ago, because the fundamentals of this election have largely stayed the same, despite many efforts on the part of the media and election community to convince you otherwise. I think the repeating pattern tends to be we underestimate the party out of power in midterms, but in recent years this has just turned into only underestimating Republicans. If I do this good I'll get a few districts wrong inevitably but I'll be in the right ballpark of seats, and right now, I see little chance that Republicans will get less than 230 seats, unlike most prognosticators. 225-230 actually requires the generic ballot polling to overestimate Republicans, which it hasn't done in a midterm of a Democratic president since... when exactly?
I feel the same way I did posting this in 2020. Going much against the "consensus", knowing there's a chance I could be wrong, but knowing I have fundamentals and common sense on my side. Something many election pundits and analysts are missing.
smoltchanov:
3 month later (and 6 days before election) - and my prediction returned to what it was in early August:
House: 230-235 Republicans, 200-205 Democrats
Senate: both parties will be in 48-52 range (most likely - even 49-51)
Governors: about present 28-22 Republican, may be with 1-2 seats difference
State legislatures: small Republican gains because of such states as West Virginia...
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